巴菲特致股东的信（1997年）⑥保险业务-GEICO保险以及其它主要保险

Insurance -- GEICO (1-800-555-2756) and Other Primary Operations

Last year I wrote about GEICO's Tony Nicely and his terrific management skills. If I had known then what he had in store for us in 1997, I would have searched for still greater superlatives. Tony, now 54, has been with GEICO for 36 years and last year was his best. As CEO, he has transmitted vision, energy and enthusiasm to all members of the GEICO family -- raising their sights from what has been achieved to what can be achieved.

保险业务：GEICO 保险及其它主要保险

去年年报我提到 GEICO 保险的托尼·莱斯利(Tony Nicely)以及他优异的管理技能，不过我要是早知道他在1997 年的表现，我可能会试着去用更好的形容词，现年 54 岁的 Tony 在 GEICO 保险服务已有 36 年之久，在去年更达到个人事业的巅峰，身为公司的 CEO，他将远景、能量与热情传递给公司上上下下的每一个人，激励他们不断地超越巅峰。

We measure GEICO's performance by first, the net increase in its voluntary auto policies (that is, not including policies assigned us by the state) and, second, the profitability of "seasoned" auto business, meaning policies that have been with us for more than a year and are thus past the period in which acquisition costs cause them to be money-losers. In 1996, in-force business grew 10%, and I told you how pleased I was, since that rate was well above anything we had seen in two decades. Then, in 1997, growth jumped to 16%.

我们运用好几种方法来衡量 GEICO 保险的表现，首先是自愿性加入汽车保单数量的净增加数(也就是不包含州政府强制分配给我们的保单数)。第二，长期汽车保单业务的盈利状况，是指那些持续一年以上，已经过了初次取得成本而开始赚钱的保单，1996 年有效保单的数量成长了 10%，当时我曾告诉大家这是相当令人兴奋的一件事，因为这是 20 年来的新高，不过到了 1997 年，有效保单数量的成长率又大幅跃升为 16%！

Below are the new business and in-force figures for the last five years:

下表是新加入自愿性保单以及有效保单数量的统计：

Of course, any insurer can grow rapidly if it gets careless about underwriting. GEICO's underwriting profit for the year, though, was 8.1% of premiums, far above its average. Indeed, that percentage was higher than we wish it to be: Our goal is to pass on most of the benefits of our low-cost operation to our customers, holding ourselves to about 4% in underwriting profit. With that in mind, we reduced our average rates a bit during 1997 and may well cut them again this year. Our rate changes varied, of course, depending on the policyholder and where he lives; we strive to charge a rate that properly reflects the loss expectancy of each driver.

当然任何一家保险公司都可以不顾承保品质而快速的成长，然而 GEICO 保险本年度的承保利润却是保费收入的 8.1%，这数字远优于一般同业水准，确实这数字也远高于我们本身的预期，我们原先的目标是将低成本营运所贡献的盈利回馈给我们的客户，仅保留 4%利润率，基于这样的信念，我们将 1997 年的保险费率再度略微调降，同时在明年有可能也会采取相同的做法，当然最后的费率还须参酌保户本身状况以及居住的地区，我们最终还是希望费率的改变可以合理地反映每位驾驶人发生损失的预期概率。

GEICO is not the only auto insurer obtaining favorable results these days. Last year, the industry recorded profits that were far better than it anticipated or can sustain. Intensified competition will soon squeeze margins very significantly. But this is a development we welcome: Long term, a tough market helps the low-cost operator, which is what we are and intend to remain.

GEICO 保险并不是近年来唯一取得好成绩汽车保险业者，去年整个产业获得高于原先预期的盈利能力，但这种好光景很难维持下去，因为来自同业激烈的竞争很快地就会压缩盈利的空间，然而面对可能的发展，我们胸有成竹，就长期而言，艰困的市场环境有利于低成本营运的业者生存，这也是一直以来我们努力维持的竞争优势。

Last year I told you about the record 16.9% profit-sharing contribution that GEICO's associates had earned and explained that two simple variables set the amount: policy growth and profitability of seasoned business. I further explained that 1996's performance was so extraordinary that we had to enlarge the chart delineating the possible payouts. The new configuration didn't make it through 1997: We enlarged the chart's boundaries again and awarded our 10,500 associates a profit-sharing contribution amounting to 26.9% of their base compensation, or $71 million. In addition, the same two variables -- policy growth and profitability of seasoned business -- determined the cash bonuses that we paid to dozens of top executives, starting with Tony.

去年我也曾跟各位报告过，GEICO 保险员工为自己挣得高达年薪 16.9%的奖金，同时也解释只有两项简单的参数计算出这个比例，那就是保单的成长率与长期业务的盈利状况，我还说由于 1996 年的表现实在是超乎预期以致于原先预估支付奖金的图表，因不够使用而必须加大，不过到了今年新的图表竟然又不够用，为此我们再度提高上限，总计全公司上上下下的 10,500 名员工，一共可以领到相当于年薪 26.9%的奖金，总金额高达 7100 万美元，当然这两项参数，同时也适用于包含 Tony 在内的数十位高级经理人的奖金红利。

At GEICO, we are paying in a way that makes sense for both our owners and our managers. We distribute merit badges, not lottery tickets: In none of Berkshire's subsidiaries do we relate compensation to our stock price, which our associates cannot affect in any meaningful way. Instead, we tie bonuses to each unit's business performance, which is the direct product of the unit's people. When that performance is terrific -- as it has been at GEICO -- there is nothing Charlie and I enjoy more than writing a big check.

在 GEICO 保险，我们支付薪资红利的方式很能够获得劳资双方的认同，我们颁发的是红利奖章而不是乐透彩券，伯克希尔旗下的子公司员工的薪资回报与母公司的股价一点关系都没有，因为前者并没有能力直接影响后者，相反地，我们将子公司的薪资与各部门的各自表现完全绑在一起，因为后者的成败必须由前者负全部的责任，当某业务部门的表现杰出时，就像 GEICO 保险去年的情况一样，查理跟我乐于签发大额支票。

GEICO's underwriting profitability will probably fall in 1998, but the company's growth could accelerate. We're planning to step on the gas: GEICO's marketing expenditures this year will top $100 million, up 50% from 1997. Our market share today is only 3%, a level of penetration that should increase dramatically in the next decade. The auto insurance industry is huge -- it does about $115 billion of volume annually -- and there are tens of millions of drivers who would save substantial money by switching to us.

不过 GEICO 保险 1998 年的承保利润很可能会下滑，但是保单数量应该还会继续成长，我们已准备好加紧油门，GEICO 保险今年预计的营销费用将突破一亿美元的大关，这数字比起 1997 年要增加 50%以上，截至目前为止，我们的市场占有率约为 3%，预计在未来的十年内还会大幅增加，整个汽车保险市场的大饼相当可观，每年约有 1150 亿美元的市场规模，预估将有上千万的驾驶人因为将保单转移到我们这边而节省相当可观的保费。

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In the 1995 report, I described the enormous debt that you and I owe to Lorimer Davidson. On a Saturday early in 1951, he patiently explained the ins and outs of both GEICO and its industry to me -- a 20-year-old stranger who'd arrived at GEICO's headquarters uninvited and unannounced. Davy later became the company's CEO and has remained my friend and teacher for 47 years. The huge rewards that GEICO has heaped on Berkshire would not have materialized had it not been for his generosity and wisdom. Indeed, had I not met Davy, I might never have grown to understand the whole field of insurance, which over the years has played such a key part in Berkshire's success.

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在 1995 年的年报中，我曾经提到我们欠 Lorimer Davidson 一个大人情，1951 年初的某个周六，一个 20岁的毛头小子不请自来，招呼都没打就冒冒失失闯入 GEICO 保险公司总部，他深入浅出地介绍 GEICO 保险以及行业的来龙去脉。Davy 后来也成为该公司的 CEO，并与我维持长达 47 年亦师亦友的情谊，没有他的慷慨和智慧，伯克希尔也没有办法靠着 GEICO 保险的成功而获得巨大回报。事实上，如果我没有遇到 Davy，我可能永远也不会了解整个保险行业。多年来，保险业务在伯克希尔的成功中发挥了如此关键的作用。

Davy turned 95 last year, and it's difficult for him to travel. Nevertheless, Tony and I hope that we can persuade him to attend our annual meeting, so that our shareholders can properly thank him for his important contributions to Berkshire. Wish us luck.

Davy 去年已高龄 95 岁，旅途奔波对他来说是一件很辛苦的事，不过 Tony 跟我还是会尽量说服他参加今年的股东大会，好让大家能够藉这个机会好好地感谢他对伯克希尔所做的贡献，希望我们能够如愿。

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Though they are, of course, far smaller than GEICO, our other primary insurance operations turned in results last year that, in aggregate, were fully as stunning. National Indemnity's traditional business had an underwriting profit of 32.9% and, as usual, developed a large amount of float compared to premium volume. Over the last three years, this segment of our business, run by Don Wurster, has had a profit of 24.3%. Our homestate operation, managed by Rod Eldred, recorded an underwriting profit of 14.1% even though it continued to absorb the expenses of geographical expansion. Rod's three-year record is an amazing 15.1%. Berkshire's workers' compensation business, run out of California by Brad Kinstler, had a modest underwriting loss in a difficult environment; its three-year underwriting record is a positive 1.5%. John Kizer, at Central States Indemnity, set a new volume record while generating good underwriting earnings. At Kansas Bankers Surety, Don Towle more than lived up to the high expectations we had when we purchased the company in 1996.

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当然，我们其它直接保险业务，虽然规模比 GEICO 保险小得多，但去年缴出来的成绩单同样惊人，国民保险传统业务的承保利润率高达 32.9%，同时也贡献出相较于保费收入高比例的浮存金。累计过去三年，这个由 DonWurster 领导的保险部门平均利润率为 24.3%。另外在由 Rod Eldred 领导的住宅保险业务(Home-State)，在必须吸收地区业务扩大的运营费用下，仍然缴出 14.1%的承保利润率，累计最近三年的利润率为 15.1%。此外，伯克希尔的工伤赔偿保险业务在加州的 Brad Kinstler 主持下，虽然面临困难的环境，但产生承保损失的程度相对轻微，平均三年的承保成绩是正的 1.5%。还有由 John Kizer 领导的中部州保险在保费收入缔造新高的同时，也贡献相当不错的承保盈利。最后是我们在 1996 年收购的堪萨斯银行家保险，Don Towle 的表现甚至超过我们当初设立的高标准。

In aggregate, these five operations recorded an underwriting profit of 15.0%. The two Dons, along with Rod, Brad and John, have created significant value for Berkshire, and we believe there is more to come.

总计下来，这五家保险子公司平均的承保利润率是 15.0%，两位 Dons 加上 Rod、Brad 及John，为伯克希尔创造了可观的收益，而且我们也相信后势可期。