巴菲特致股东的信（1999年）②内在价值简介

Guides to Intrinsic Value

I often talk in these pages about intrinsic value, a key, though far from precise, measurement we utilize in our acquisitions of businesses and common stocks. (For an extensive discussion of this, and other investment and accounting terms and concepts, please refer to our Owner's Manual on pages 55 - 62. Intrinsic value is discussed on page 60.)

内在价值简介

在接下来的这一段，我要谈谈常常提到内在价值的观念，这是一个我们在进行企业并购与股票投资时，很重要但却很难明确界定的标准，(有关这个议题的广泛讨论，也包含其它投资与会计名词观念，请参阅股东手册)。

In our last four reports, we have furnished you a table that we regard as useful in estimating Berkshire's intrinsic value. In the updated version of that table, which follows, we trace two key components of value. The first column lists our per-share ownership of investments (including cash and equivalents but excluding assets held in our financial products operation) and the second column shows our per-share earnings from Berkshire's operating businesses before taxes and purchase-accounting adjustments (discussed on page 61), but after all interest and corporate expenses. The second column excludes all dividends, interest and capital gains that we realized from the investments presented in the first column. In effect, the columns show how Berkshire would look if it were split into two parts, with one entity holding our investments and the other operating all of our businesses and bearing all corporate costs.

在最近四年的年报中，我们提供了我们认为可以最能够估计伯克希尔内在价值的一张表，在今年刚刚更新资料的表中，我们以拟制的方式将通用再保险的数字加入其中，也就是假设该公司自年度一开始就为我们所拥有，第一栏的数字代表我们拥有每股的投资金额(包括现金与类现金，但扣除财务子公司持有的证券)，第二栏则是每股在扣除利息与经营费用之后，伯克希尔来自本业的经营收益(但未扣除所得税与购买法会计调整数)，当然后者已经扣除了所有来自第一栏投资所贡献的股利收入、利息收入与资本利得，事实上，从这张表可以看出若是把伯克希尔分拆成两部分的话会变成怎样，其结果就等于是一家持有我们投资部位的控股公司，以及另一家经营旗下所有事业负担全部成本盈亏的营利事业。

Here are the growth rates of the two segments by decade:

下表是这两个部分每十年的成长率：

In 1999, our per-share investments changed very little, but our operating earnings, affected by negatives that overwhelmed some strong positives, fell apart. Most of our operating managers deserve a grade of A for delivering fine results and for having widened the difference between the intrinsic value of their businesses and the value at which these are carried on our balance sheet. But, offsetting this, we had a huge -- and, I believe, aberrational -- underwriting loss at General Re. Additionally, GEICO's underwriting profit fell, as we had predicted it would. GEICO's overall performance, though, was terrific, outstripping my ambitious goals.

1999 年，我们每股投资金额变化不大，但是每股经营收益却因为几个重大的负面因素而大幅滑落，我们大部分的经理人都得到 A 级以上的评价，大幅增加各自业务的内在价值与显示在资产负债表上的帐面价值，只不过可惜的是这一切的努力通通都被通用再保险异常的承保损失给抵消掉了，此外 GEICO 保险的承保收益也如预期地下滑，虽然其整体表现仍然远远超越当初我定下的严格目标。

We do not expect our underwriting earnings to improve in any dramatic way this year. Though GEICO's intrinsic value should grow by a highly satisfying amount, its underwriting performance is almost certain to weaken. That's because auto insurers, as a group, will do worse in 2000, and because we will materially increase our marketing expenditures. At General Re, we are raising rates and, if there is no mega-catastrophe in 2000, the company's underwriting loss should fall considerably. It takes some time, however, for the full effect of rate increases to kick in, and General Re is therefore likely to have another unsatisfactory underwriting year.

展望今年我们并不预期承保成绩能够大幅改进，虽然 GEICO 保险的内在价值应该还是能够以一个令人满意的幅度增加，但其承保成绩却一定会滑落，原因在于车险业者在 2000 年整体的表现肯定不佳，也因为我们将投入大笔的营销费用。至于通用再保险，我们已开始调高保费，只要 2000 年不要再发生重大的意外灾害的话，该公司的承保损失应该会大幅减少，不过保费调整的效果要完全显现，可能需要一段时间，所以可以预期的是通用再保险明年的承保成绩肯定也不会好到哪里去。

You should be aware that one item regularly working to widen the amount by which intrinsic value exceeds book value is the annual charge against income we take for amortization of goodwill -- an amount now running about $500 million. This charge reduces the amount of goodwill we show as an asset and likewise the amount that is included in our book value. This is an accounting matter having nothing to do with true economic goodwill, which increases in most years. But even if economic goodwill were to remain constant, the annual amortization charge would persistently widen the gap between intrinsic value and book value.

财报中有一个叫做商誉摊销的费用项目是大家要特别注意的，伯克希尔每年固定提列的金额大约在 5 亿美元左右，这个动作使得资产负债表上商誉的会计数字逐年递减，但却与实质经济商誉价值稳定成长的现况背道而驰，而就算是实质的经济商誉价值维持不变，每年固定提列的商誉摊销费用也会使得帐上的商誉与实际上的商誉价值间的差距日益扩大。

Though we can't give you a precise figure for Berkshire's intrinsic value, or even an approximation, Charlie and I can assure you that it far exceeds our $57.8 billion book value. Businesses such as See's and Buffalo News are now worth fifteen to twenty times the value at which they are carried on our books. Our goal is to continually widen this spread at all subsidiaries.

虽然我们无法给各位一个伯克希尔实际价值的确切数字，这实在是很难去估算，不过查理跟我可以向各位保证，实际的数字绝对远超过 578 亿美元的帐面价值，许多业务比如布法罗新闻报与喜诗糖果的内在价值大概是帐面价值的 15-20 倍之间，不过我们的目标是继续让子公司扩大这样的差距。