巴菲特致股东的信（2003年）⑧保险事业

Insurance

保险事业

Let’s start with insurance – since that’s where the money is.

首先登场的是保险事业，因为这也是真正的重心所在。

The fountain of funds we enjoy in our insurance operations comes from “float,” which is money that doesn’t belong to us but that we temporarily hold. Most of our float arises because (1) premiums are paid upfront though the service we provide – insurance protection – is delivered over a period that usually covers a year and; (2) loss events that occur today do not always result in our immediately paying claims, since it sometimes takes years for losses to be reported (think asbestos), negotiated and settled.

我们经营保险事业所取得主要资金的来源就是浮存金，这笔钱并不属于我们而只是交给我们暂时保管，浮存金的来源包含(1)通过我们所提供的服务(保险保障)，所提前收到的保费期限通常长达一年，(2)损失已经发生但却不必马上支付的理赔金，因为有些损失可能要经过一段很长的时间之后才会被通报、协商乃至于和解(就像是石棉案一样)。

Float is wonderful – if it doesn’t come at a high price. The cost of float is determined by underwriting results, meaning how losses and expenses paid compare with premiums received. The property-casualty industry as a whole regularly operates at a substantial underwriting loss, and therefore often has a cost of float that is unattractive.

保险浮存金固然多多益善，但前提是其取得成本不能太高，浮存金的成本取决于核保绩效，也就是相对于收到的保费收入，支付赔付损失及费用的比例，财产意外险通常都会产生核保损失，其结果往往导致浮存金的成本不太理想。

Overall, our results have been good. True, we’ve had five terrible years in which float cost us more than 10%. But in 18 of the 37 years Berkshire has been in the insurance business, we have operated at an underwriting profit, meaning we were actually paid for holding money. And the quantity of this cheap money has grown far beyond what I dreamed it could when we entered the business in 1967.

总的来说，我们的成绩相当出色，确实我们过去曾有五个年头浮存金的成本超过 10%，但是在伯克希尔跨入保险领域的 37 个年头中，有 18 个年头享有承保收益，这代表我们以收取费用的方式保管这些资金，而这些便宜资金累积的速度远远超过当初 1967 年我介入这个行业时的预期。

Last year was a standout. Float reached record levels and it came without cost as all major segments contributed to Berkshire’s $1.7 billion pre-tax underwriting profit.

去年的表现尤其杰出，累积的浮存金规模再度创下历史新高，这些资金不但没有成本，而且额外还贡献了 17亿美元的税前承保收益。

Our results have been exceptional for one reason: We have truly exceptional managers. Insurers sell a non-proprietary piece of paper containing a non-proprietary promise. Anyone can copy anyone else’s product. No installed base, key patents, critical real estate or natural resource position protects an insurer’s competitive position. Typically, brands do not mean much either.

我们的成绩之所以能够这么出色，只有一个原因，那就是我们拥有真正杰出的经理人，保险公司销售的是不具任何独特性的保单，任何人都可以仿制类似的产品，没有固定的基础、重要的专利、不动产或任何自然资源来保护现有竞争优势，而通常品牌的重要性也不那么明显。

The critical variables, therefore, are managerial brains, discipline and integrity. Our managers have all of these attributes – in spades. Let’s take a look at these all-stars and their operations.

因此真正关键的因素还在于管理者的智慧、纪律以及品格，我们旗下的经理人都具备这样的特性，接下来就让我们一起来欣赏这些明星经理人以及他们的营运成果。

• General Re had been Berkshire’s problem child in the years following our acquisition of it in 1998. Unfortunately, it was a 400-pound child, and its negative impact on our overall performance was large.

• 通用再保险在我们于 1998 年并购之后，一直就是伯克希尔的问题小孩，更惨的是，他还是一个重达四百磅的巨无霸小孩，所以他的负面效应对我们整体表现的影响极为重大。

That’s behind us: Gen Re is fixed. Thank Joe Brandon, its CEO, and his partner, Tad Montross, for that. When I wrote you last year, I thought that discipline had been restored to both underwriting and reserving, and events during 2003 solidified my view.

不过这已经是过去式，通用再保险已经完全恢复，这要感谢 JoeBrandon 总裁以及他的搭档 TadMontross 为我们所作的一切，当我去年在写年报的时候，我以为所有核保的纪律以及损失准备的提列都已完全改进，2003 年所发生的事件更加加深我这样的看法。

That does not mean we will never have setbacks. Reinsurance is a business that is certain to deliver blows from time to time. But, under Joe and Tad, this operation will be a powerful engine driving Berkshire’s future profitability.

当然这不代表以后就完全不会再有问题，再保险这行业本来就注定不时会有爆炸性事件发生，但在 Joe 及Tad 的领导下，这家公司将会是伯克希尔未来获利成长的重要推动力。

Gen Re’s financial strength, unmatched among reinsurers even as we started 2003, further improved during the year. Many of the company’s competitors suffered credit downgrades last year, leaving Gen Re, and its sister operation at National Indemnity, as the only AAA-rated companies among the world’s major reinsurers.

通用再保险的财务实力，是其它再保同业所无法比拟的，加之 2003 年该公司的实力又更上一层楼，相形之下，许多同业在去年的信用评等纷纷被降级，使得通用再保险以及其姊妹公司国民保险成为全世界主要再保险公司中，唯一具备 AAA 最高信用评级的再保业者。

When insurers purchase reinsurance, they buy only a promise – one whose validity may not be tested for decades – and there are no promises in the reinsurance world equaling those offered by Gen Re and National Indemnity. Furthermore, unlike most reinsurers, we retain virtually all of the risks we assume. Therefore, our ability to pay is not dependent on the ability or willingness of others to reimburse us. This independent financial strength could be enormously important when the industry experiences the mega-catastrophe it surely will.

当保险公司购买再保险时，他们买下的只是一纸承诺，而其有效性可能要在几十年后才会受到考验，在再保险世界中，再没有任何一家公司可以比通用再保险及国民保险更具保障性，此外，不像其它大部分的再保业者，我们几乎将所有承担的风险自留下来，因此我们的理赔能力，不必再依赖其它再保公司的能力或意愿，这种独立的财务实力，在可预期一定会发生重大灾难的保险世界来说尤其重要。

• Regular readers of our annual reports know of Ajit Jain’s incredible contributions to Berkshire’s prosperity over the past 18 years. He continued to pour it on in 2003. With a staff of only 23, Ajit runs one of the world’s largest reinsurance operations, specializing in mammoth and unusual risks.

• 经常阅读本公司年报的读者都知道阿吉特·贾恩过去 18 年对于伯克希尔的贡献是如此之大，2003 年他依然继续付出，在只有 23 位同仁的协助之下，阿吉特管理全世界最大的再保险业务，专门处理超大型罕见的风险。

Often, these involve assuming catastrophe risks – say, the threat of a large California earthquake – of a size far greater than any other reinsurer will accept. This means Ajit’s results (and Berkshire’s) will be lumpy. You should, therefore, expect his operation to have an occasional horrible year. Over time, however, you can be confident of a terrific result from this one-of-a-kind manager.

这些业务通常包含承担一般再保险公司无法承担的灾难风险，比如说加州大地震，这也意味阿吉特以及伯克希尔的绩效变动将会相当的大，所以大家最好有心理准备，在未来的某些年度，阿吉特的表现可能会非常的差，不过就长期而言，大家可以相信，堪称一时之选的阿吉特绝对会是交出优异的成绩单。

Ajit writes some very unusual policies. Last year, for example, PepsiCo promoted a drawing that offered participants a chance to win a $1 billion prize. Understandably, Pepsi wished to lay off this risk, and we were the logical party to assume it. So we wrote a $1 billion policy, retaining the risk entirely for our own account. Because the prize, if won, was payable over time, our exposure in present-value terms was $250 million. (I helpfully suggested that any winner be paid $1 a year for a billion years, but that proposal didn’t fly.) The drawing was held on September 14. Ajit and I held our breath, as did the finalist in the contest, and we left happier than he. PepsiCo has renewed for a repeat contest in 2004.

阿吉特签过许多相当特别的保单，比方说去年百事可乐曾经举办过一次抽奖，参加者有机会可以获得 10 亿美元的大奖，我们可以理解，百事可乐一定会想要分散这样的风险，而我们正是最合适的人选，就这样我们签下了一笔保额 10 亿美元的保单，并独立承担所有的风险，依照游戏规则这笔奖金如果真的被抽到，将会分期支付，因此我们实际承担的风险现值只有 2.5 亿美元，(我曾希望得奖者可以分 10 亿年领取奖金，不过这样的提案显然不被接受)，正式的抽奖活动在 9 月 14 日举行，阿吉特跟我屏息以待，当然最后的参赛者也一样，所幸最后笑着离开的是我们，百事可乐打算在 2004 年再度举办这项活动。

• GEICO was a fine insurance company when Tony Nicely took over as CEO in 1992. Now it is a great one. During his tenure, premium volume has increased from $2.2 billion to $8.1 billion, and our share of the personal-auto market has grown from 2.1% to 5.0%. More important, GEICO has paired these gains with outstanding underwriting performance.

• 在 1992 年托尼·莱斯利接手时，GEICO 就已经是一家相当优秀的保险公司，现在它则蜕变成一家伟大的公司，在他任职期间，保费收入从原先的 22 亿美元成长到目前的 81 亿美元，而我们在小车保险的市场占有率从2.1%成长为 5.0%，更重要的是，GEICO 更还拥有优异的核保成绩。

(We now pause for a commercial) It’s been 67 years since Leo Goodwin created a great business idea at GEICO, one designed to save policyholders significant money. Go to Geico.com or call 1-800-847-7536 to see what we can do for you. (End of commercial)

(中场来段广告：自从 67 年前在 LeoGoodwin 的创意下建立了 GEICO 保险公司后，这家公司已为成千上万的保户节省了无数的金钱，请上 Geico.com 网站或是打电话到 1-800-847-7536，看看我们能为你做些什么。)

In 2003, both the number of inquiries coming into GEICO and its closure rate on these increased significantly. As a result our preferred policyholder count grew 8.2%, and our standard and non-standard policies grew 21.4%.

2003 年，不论是咨询 GEICO 的电话以及成交率都大幅提升，总计我们特级保户人数成长了 8.2%，标准以及非标准的保单则成长了 21.4%。

GEICO’s business growth creates a never-ending need for more employees and facilities. Our most recent expansion, announced in December, is a customer service center in – I’m delighted to say – Buffalo. Stan Lipsey, the publisher of our Buffalo News, was instrumental in bringing the city and GEICO together.

GEICO 的业务不断地成长使得我们必须一再扩充人员编制与配备，我很高兴向大家报告，最近的一次扩编是在去年 12 月，我们在布法罗设立一个客户服务中心，布法罗新闻报的发行人 StanLipsey 对于引导 GEICO 进入布法罗有重大贡献。

The key figure in this matter, however, was Governor George Pataki. His leadership and tenacity are why Buffalo will have 2,500 new jobs when our expansion is fully rolled out. Stan, Tony, and I – along with Buffalo – thank him for his help.

这件事的主角，当属州长 George Pataki，在他的领导与坚持之下，我们的扩编计划得以完全实现，布法罗也因此增加了 2,500 个就业机会，Stan、Tony 以及我个人也包含布法罗都衷心感谢他的大力协助。

• Berkshire’s smaller insurers had another terrific year. This group, run by Rod Eldred, John Kizer, Tom Nerney, Don Towle and Don Wurster, increased its float by 41%, while delivering an excellent underwriting profit. These men, though operating in unexciting ways, produce truly exciting results.

• 伯克希尔几个规模较小的保险事业同样也缔造了惊人的成绩，这个由 Rod Eldred、John Kizer、Tom Nerney、Don Towle 及 Don Wurster 领导的业务，浮存金成长了 41%，同时也维持优良的核保绩效，这些人的工作内容或许平淡无奇，但所创造的获利却极其惊人。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

We should point out again that in any given year a company writing long-tail insurance (coverages giving rise to claims that are often settled many years after the loss-causing event takes place) can report almost any earnings that the CEO desires. Too often the industry has reported wildly inaccurate figures by misstating liabilities. Most of the mistakes have been innocent. Sometimes, however, they have been intentional, their object being to fool investors and regulators. Auditors and actuaries have usually failed to prevent both varieties of misstatement.

我们必须再一次指出，一个签发长尾型保险的公司(保单理赔期限通常在损失事件发生好几年后才会理赔的保单)，其经理几乎可以随心所欲的操控其短期的收益数字，这行业因为错估准备金负债而导致报表收益数字不真实可说是司空见惯的事，大部分的错误或许都是出于无心，但有时也有可能是故意的，其目的无非是想要误导投资人以及监管机关，而会计师以及精算师往往无法预防此类的事件发生。

I have failed on occasion too, particularly in not spotting Gen Re’s unwitting underreserving a few years back. Not only did that mean we reported inaccurate figures to you, but the error also resulted in our paying very substantial taxes earlier than was necessary. Aaarrrggghh. I told you last year, however, that I thought our current reserving was at appropriate levels. So far, that judgment is holding up.

我自己也曾发生过失误，其中尤以未能发现通用再保险几年前损失准备金提列不当的过失，这不但代表我们提供不正确的报表数字给各位，同时也意味我们多支付大量税金了给政府，啊！(惨叫一声)，去年我不是才告诉各位我们目前提列的准备还是适当吗？目前这样的判断可能要暂时候住。

Here are Berkshire’s pre-tax underwriting results by segment:

以下是伯克希尔保险业务税前承保利润(损失)：

* These contracts were explained on page 10 of the 2002 annual report, available on the Internet at www.berkshirehathaway.com. In brief, this segment consists of a few jumbo policies that are likely to produce underwriting losses (which are capped) but also provide unusually large amounts of float.

*这些合同的解释载于2002年年报第10页，可在互联网上查阅，网址为www.berkshirehathaway.com。简而言之，该分部由一些可能产生承保损失(有上限)但也提供异常大量浮动的巨额保单组成