巴菲特致股东的信（2005年）③保险业务

Insurance

保险业务

Let’s now talk about our four sectors and start with insurance, our core business. What counts here is the amount of “float” and its cost over time.

让我开始讨论我们的四大部分业务。首先从我们最核心的保险开始，在保险业务中，浮存金的规模，及其获得的成本意义重大。

For new readers, let me explain. “Float” is money that doesn’t belong to us but that we temporarily hold. Most of our float arises because (1) premiums are paid upfront though the service we provide – insurance protection – is delivered over a period that usually covers a year and; (2) loss events that occur today do not always result in our immediately paying claims, because it sometimes takes many years for losses to be reported (asbestos losses would be an example), negotiated and settled. The $20 million of float that came with our 1967 entry into insurance has now increased – both by way of internal growth and acquisitions – to $49 billion.

考虑到我的新读者，需要解释一下浮存金。保险公司的浮存金是一笔虽然不属于我们所有，但可暂时为我们所使用的资金。我们的浮存金增加的两个主要原因是：(1)在保险业务中，我们先收取保费，通常在 1 年左右之后才提供保险服务；(2)目前发生的损失不表示我们马上就要理赔，从发现损害、调解到最终解决，有时需要经过好几年时间。1967 年我们的保险浮存金为 2000 万美元，经过多年的内部成长及外部并购，已经增长到如今的 490 亿美元之巨。

Float is wonderful – if it doesn’t come at a high price. Its cost is determined by underwriting results, meaning how the expenses and losses we will ultimately pay compare with the premiums we have received. When an insurer earns an underwriting profit – as has been the case at Berkshire in about half of the 39 years we have been in the insurance business – float is better than free. In such years, we are actually paid for holding other people’s money. For most insurers, however, life has been far more difficult: In aggregate, the property-casualty industry almost invariably operates at an underwriting loss. When that loss is large, float becomes expensive, sometimes devastatingly so.

拥有大量浮存金确是一件大好事，但前提是取得的成本不能太高。其成本取决于承保的结果，也就是我们的经营费用和最终承担的赔付损失与收取的保费对比后的结果。当一家保险公司获得承保利润时，就像伯克希尔过去 38 年来多数年份的保险业务那样，浮存金的成本甚至低于零成本。在这些年度，我们实际上是持有客户的资金还要向他们收费。然而，对于其他大部分保险同业来说，日子却过得非常艰难——总体而言，财产意外险通常不可避免地会发生承保损失，当损失很大时，他们就必须为浮存金支付代价，有时甚至是毁灭性的代价。

In 2004 our float cost us less than nothing, and I told you that we had a chance – absent a mega-catastrophe – of no-cost float in 2005. But we had the mega-cat, and as a specialist in that coverage, Berkshire suffered hurricane losses of $3.4 billion. Nevertheless, our float was costless in 2005 because of the superb results we had in our other insurance activities, particularly at GEICO.

2004 年我们的浮存金成本低于零，即负成本，我曾告诉大家，除非发生超级巨大灾难，2005 年我们仍会有机会使浮存金成本为零。遗憾的是，作为承保超级巨灾保险的专家，我们确实遭遇了超级巨灾，由于飓风袭击，伯克希尔赔付损失高达 34 亿美元(Katrina 飓风 25 亿，Rita 和 Wilma 飓风 9 亿)。尽管如此，我们的浮存金仍然无需支付任何成本，这主要是由于我们其他保险业务尤其是 GEICO 的杰出经营所创造的超级业绩。

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Auto policies in force grew by 12.1% at GEICO, a gain increasing its market share of U.S. private passenger auto business from about 5.6% to about 6.1%. Auto insurance is a big business: Each share-point equates to $1.6 billion in sales.

GEICO 的汽车保险业务大规模增长了 12.1%，这使其在美国私人汽车保险业的市场份额从 5.6%增长到约6.1%。汽车保险市场规模巨大(1600 亿)，市场份额每增长 1%，相当于销售额增长 16 亿美元。

While our brand strength is not quantifiable, I believe it also grew significantly. When Berkshire acquired control of GEICO in 1996, its annual advertising expenditures were $31 million. Last year we were up to $502 million. And I can’t wait to spend more.

尽管我们的品牌无法量化，但我相信同样在显著增长。1996 年伯克希尔完全控股 GEICO 时，其年均广告费支出为 3,100 万美元。2005 年广告费支出增长到 5.02 亿美元，而且我们迫不及待要继续追加广告费投入。

Our advertising works because we have a great story to tell: More people can save money by insuring with us than is the case with any other national carrier offering policies to all comers. (Some specialized auto insurers do particularly well for applicants fitting into their niches; also, because our national competitors use rating systems that differ from ours, they will sometimes beat our price.) Last year, we achieved by far the highest conversion rate – the percentage of internet and phone quotes turned into sales – in our history. This is powerful evidence that our prices are more attractive relative to the competition than ever before. Test us by going to GEICO.com or by calling 800-847-7536. Be sure to indicate you are a shareholder because that fact will often qualify you for a discount.

我们的广告之所以有效，是因为我们讲述了一个非常好的故事：与任何一家向所有客户提供汽车保险服务的全国性保险公司相比，在 GEICO 公司投保汽车险能节省更多的钱(一些专业汽车保险公司的确在其擅长的领域中向申请人提供特别良好的服务；同样，由于我们的全国性竞争对手运用不同的分类系统，所以有时能提供比我们更好的价格)。2004 年我们获得了迄今为止的历史最高转化比率，即网络和电话询问转化为销售保单的比率，这正是我们的价格与竞争对手相比，现在比以前更加有吸引力的一个强有力的证据。访问 GEICO.com 或致电 800-847-7536，你就会发现我所言不虚，记住一定要说明你是伯克希尔公司的股东，因为作为股东往往会让你享受特别的优惠。

I told you last year about GEICO’s entry into New Jersey in August, 2004. Drivers in that state love us. Our retention rate there for new policyholders is running higher than in any other state, and by sometime in 2007, GEICO is likely to become the third largest auto insurer in New Jersey. There, as elsewhere, our low costs allow low prices that lead to steady gains in profitable business.

我曾对人说过，2004 年 8 月 GEICO 进入新泽西州，那里的驾车人士非常喜欢 GEICO。我们在该州的新保户的保留率大大高于其他州，估计到 2007 年左右，GEICO 可能将成为新泽西第三大汽车保险商。除此之外，我们的低成本能够在低价格销售的同时保持稳定的盈利。

That simple formula immediately impressed me 55 years ago when I first discovered GEICO. Indeed, at age 21, I wrote an article about the company – it’s reproduced on page 24 – when its market value was $7 million. As you can see, I called GEICO “The Security I Like Best.” And that’s what I still call it.

55 年前，我第一次发现 GEICO 时，这家公司简单却有效的经营之道给我留下了深刻的印象。实际上，我 21岁时还写了一篇关于这家公司的文章(其副本在年报第 24 页)，当时这家公司市值只有 700 万美元。在文章中你会看到，我称 GEICO 为"我最喜欢的股票"。如今我还是这样称呼它。

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We have major reinsurance operations at General Re and National Indemnity. The former is run by Joe Brandon and Tad Montross, the latter by Ajit Jain. Both units performed well in 2005 considering the extraordinary hurricane losses that battered the industry.

我们的再保险业务主要由通用再保险和国民保险经营，前者由 JoeBrandon 和 TadMontross 管理，后者由阿吉特·贾恩管理。考虑到 2005 年异常严重的飓风损害让再保险业遭受了严重打击，两家公司的业绩表现可以说相当不错。

It’s an open question whether atmospheric, oceanic or other causal factors have dramatically changed the frequency or intensity of hurricanes. Recent experience is worrisome. We know, for instance, that in the 100 years before 2004, about 59 hurricanes of Category 3 strength, or greater, hit the Southeastern and Gulf Coast states, and that only three of these were Category 5s. We further know that in 2004 there were three Category 3 storms that hammered those areas and that these were followed by four more in 2005, one of them, Katrina, the most destructive hurricane in industry history. Moreover, there were three Category 5s near the coast last year that fortunately weakened before landfall.

大气、海洋或者其他偶然因素是否已经大大改变了飓风发生的频率和强度，这至今还是一个未能解开的谜。最近飓风发生的情况令人相当恐惧不安。例如，我们知道，在 2004 年前的 100 年中大约有 59 次 3 级或更强一些的飓风袭击了东南部和墨西哥湾海岸地区各州，其中只有 3 次为 5 级飓风。我们知道，2004 年有三次 3 级飓风袭击了这些地区，2005 年发生了 4 次，其中 1 次是历史上破坏性最大的卡特里娜飓风(Katrina)。此外，2005年沿海发生了 3 次 5 级飓风，幸运的是在登陆之前风力减弱了。

Was this onslaught of more frequent and more intense storms merely an anomaly? Or was it caused by changes in climate, water temperature or other variables we don’t fully understand? And could these factors be developing in a manner that will soon produce disasters dwarfing Katrina?

这种更频繁且更强烈的飓风袭击只是一种异常现象？还是由于气候、水温或者我们并不完全了解的其他因素引发的变化？这些因素能否发展为一种模式，导致未来将会出现连卡特里娜飓风也相形见绌的更大的灾难？

Joe, Ajit and I don’t know the answer to these all-important questions. What we do know is that our ignorance means we must follow the course prescribed by Pascal in his famous wager about the existence of God. As you may recall, he concluded that since he didn’t know the answer, his personal gain/loss ratio dictated an affirmative conclusion.

Joe、Ajit 和我并不知道这些问题的答案，我们所知道的是，我们对这些问题的答案一无所知，这就意味着我们必须遵循帕斯卡 Pascal 提出的应对之道。正如你所知道的那样，在一场著名的关于上帝是否存在的打赌中，帕斯卡得出的结论是，既然他不知道答案是什么，个人的输赢比率注定他应该选择一个，上帝肯定存在的答案。

So guided, we’ve concluded that we should now write mega-cat policies only at prices far higher than prevailed last year – and then only with an aggregate exposure that would not cause us distress if shifts in some important variable produce far more costly storms in the near future. To a lesser degree, we felt this way after 2004 – and cut back our writings when prices didn’t move. Now our caution has intensified. If prices seem appropriate, however, we continue to have both the ability and the appetite to be the largest writer of mega-cat coverage in the world.

以此原则为指导，我们已经得出结论，我们目前只能在价格远远高于去年的水平上承保超级巨灾保险，而且如果不久将来某些重要因素发生变化导致发生危害更为严重的风暴时，我们的总体风险水平才不会让我们痛心。2004年以后，在相对较弱的程度上我们已经觉察到这样的变化，在价格没有提高的情况下减少了承保。现在我们将会更加小心谨慎，不过如果价格合适，我们仍然有能力和愿望成为世界上保险金额最大的超级巨灾承保商。

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Our smaller insurers, with MedPro added to the fold, delivered truly outstanding results last year.

我们下属的规模较小的保险公司，包括最近加入进来的 MedPro，2005 年取得了非常杰出的业绩。

However, what you see in the table below does not do full justice to their performance. That’s because we increased the loss reserves of MedPro by about $125 million immediately after our purchase.

不过，你们在以下表格中所看到的数据并没有完全反映他们的业绩，这是因为，我们在收购 MedPro 以后，马上将其损失准备金提高了约 1.25 亿美元。

No one knows with any precision what amount will be required to pay the claims we inherited. Medical malpractice insurance is a “long-tail” line, meaning that claims often take many years to settle. In addition, there are other losses that have occurred, but that we won’t even hear about for some time. One thing, though, we have learned – the hard way – after many years in the business: Surprises in insurance are far from symmetrical. You are lucky if you get one that is pleasant for every ten that go the other way. Too often, however, insurers react to looming loss problems with optimism. They behave like the fellow in a switchblade fight who, after his opponent has taken a mighty swipe at his throat, exclaimed, “You never touched me.” His adversary’s reply: “Just wait until you try to shake your head.”

没人能够精确地知道需要多少资金才足以支付我们承保的保单的索赔，医疗过失责任保险是一种长尾型的保险，这意味着索赔往往需要好多年才能最终解决。另外还会有其他损失发生，但我们却可能在一段时间内对此一无所知。不过，我们从事保险业多年，经历了艰难的道路后，学到了一件事: 保险业的惊喜远非对称。如果十份保单有一份得到一个令人愉快结果，那么你也是幸运的。保险商对迫在眉睫的损失问题往往过于乐观，他们的行为类似一个弹簧刀搏斗中的一个家伙，当对手在他喉咙上猛刺一刀后，他高喊道："你别想靠近我。"他的对手回答："等你摇摇脑袋后再喊喊试试。"

Excluding the reserves we added for prior periods, MedPro wrote at an underwriting profit. And our other primary companies, in aggregate, had an underwriting profit of $324 million on $1,270 million of volume. This is an extraordinary result, and our thanks go to Rod Eldred of Berkshire Hathaway Homestate Companies, John Kizer of Central States Indemnity, Tom Nerney of U. S. Liability, Don Towle of Kansas Bankers Surety and Don Wurster of National Indemnity.

除了我们为前期的保单增加了损失准备金之外，MedPro 只在能够取得承保利润时才签发保单。我们下属其他主要保险公司在 12.7 亿美元承保业务量上取得了 3.24 亿美元承保利润，这是一个非常卓越的业绩，我们为此应该感谢 Homestate 保险公司的 Rod Eldred、Central States 保险公司的 John Kizer、U.S.Liability 责任险公司的 Tom Nerney、Kansas 银行家保险公司的 Don Towle、国民保险的 Don Wurster。

Here’s the overall tally on our underwriting and float for each major sector of insurance:

以下是我们各主要保险业务的承保和浮存金总体统计：