巴菲特致股东的信（2007年）①概述

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东：

Our gain in net worth during 2007 was $12.3 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 11%. Over the last 43 years (that is, since present management took over) book value has grown from $19 to $78,008, a rate of 21.1% compounded annually.*

公司 2007 年的账面价值增加 123 亿美元，A/B 股每股的账面价值增长了 11%(标普 28.7%)，自现任管理层接手的 43 年以来，每股账面价值由当初的 19 美元成长到目前的 78008 美元，年复合成长率约为 21.1%。

*All per-share figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares. Figures for the B shares are 1/30th of those shown for the A.

*本报告中使用的所有每股数据均适用于伯克希尔的A股。B股的数据是A股的1/30。

Overall, our 76 operating businesses did well last year. The few that had problems were primarily those linked to housing, among them our brick, carpet and real estate brokerage operations. Their setbacks are minor and temporary. Our competitive position in these businesses remains strong, and we have first-class CEOs who run them right, in good times or bad.

总体上，去年我们旗下的 76 家运营业务表现良好。少数几个出问题的业务主要是与房地产相关，包括我们的砖块、地毯以及房地产经纪业务。他们受的影响是轻微的和暂时性的。我们在这些业务领域中的竞争优势依然强大。我们拥有一流的管理层，无论年景好坏，相信他们总能把公司运营得很好。

Some major financial institutions have, however, experienced staggering problems because they engaged in the “weakened lending practices” I described in last year’s letter. John Stumpf, CEO of Wells Fargo, aptly dissected the recent behavior of many lenders: “It is interesting that the industry has invented new ways to lose money when the old ways seemed to work just fine.”

然而，一些大型的金融机构正面临严重问题，原因是他们卷入了我去年信中提到的"宽松的放贷操作"。富国银行的 CEO：JohnStumpf 对许多机构最近的放贷行为剖析道："这个行业真有趣，老的赔钱工具就不少，却又在发明新的赔钱方法。"

You may recall a 2003 Silicon Valley bumper sticker that implored, “Please, God, Just One More Bubble.” Unfortunately, this wish was promptly granted, as just about all Americans came to believe that house prices would forever rise. That conviction made a borrower’s income and cash equity seem unimportant to lenders, who shoveled out money, confident that HPA – house price appreciation – would cure all problems. Today, our country is experiencing widespread pain because of that erroneous belief. As house prices fall, a huge amount of financial folly is being exposed. You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out – and what we are witnessing at some of our largest financial institutions is an ugly sight.

你可能记得 2003 年的时候，硅谷很流行一个车贴："神啊，求求你再来个(互联网)泡沫吧"。很不幸，这个愿望很快就成真了：几乎所有的美国人都认为房价会永远上涨。这种坚信不疑令借款人的收入和现金净值对放贷机构无足轻重，他们大把大把的把钱借给别人，相信房价上涨会解决所有问题。今天，我们国家里不断蔓延的痛苦，正是源于这种错误的自信。随着房价的下跌，大量愚蠢的金融问题被曝光。对此你能学到经验就是：只有在退潮的时候，你才能知道谁在裸泳。我们关注的那些最大的金融机构，其现状简直是"惨不忍睹"。

Turning to happier thoughts, we can report that Berkshire’s newest acquisitions of size, TTI and Iscar, led by their CEOs, Paul Andrews and Jacob Harpaz respectively, performed magnificently in 2007. Iscar is as impressive a manufacturing operation as I’ve seen, a view I reported last year and that was confirmed by a visit I made in the fall to its extraordinary plant in Korea.

来点好消息，可以肯定的是，伯克希尔最新收购的 TTI 和伊斯卡(Iscar)公司，在他们的 CEO：PaulAndrews和 JacobHarpaz 领导下，在 2007 年表现不俗。去年我曾经说过，ISCAR 公司是我见过的制造企业中最令人印象深刻的一家，在秋天造访它在韩国非比寻常的工厂后，印象更加深刻了。

Finally, our insurance business – the cornerstone of Berkshire – had an excellent year. Part of the reason is that we have the best collection of insurance managers in the business – more about them later. But we also were very lucky in 2007, the second year in a row free of major insured catastrophes.

最后，作为伯克希尔基石的保险业务，这一年的业绩非常出色，这部分要归功于我们网罗了保险业中最好的一批经理人。此外我们在 2007 年非常幸运，这是连续第二年美国没有发生非常重大的灾难。

That party is over. It’s a certainty that insurance-industry profit margins, including ours, will fall significantly in 2008. Prices are down, and exposures inexorably rise. Even if the U.S. has its third consecutive catastrophe-light year, industry profit margins will probably shrink by four percentage points or so. If the winds roar or the earth trembles, results could be far worse. So be prepared for lower insurance earnings during the next few years.

不过盛宴已经结束。确定无疑的是：整个保险业的利润率，包括我们在内，2008 年将明显下滑。保费在降低，损失敞口却无情地在扩大，即使美国继续经历第三个小灾之年，保险业的利润率也将下降 4％或更多。如果遇上飓风或地震，结果将会更糟糕。所以，在接下来的几年里要对较低的保险收益有所准备。