巴菲特致股东的信（2007年）⑤保险业务

Insurance

保险业务

The best anecdote I’ve heard during the current presidential campaign came from Mitt Romney, who asked his wife, Ann, “When we were young, did you ever in your wildest dreams think I might be president?” To which she replied, “Honey, you weren’t in my wildest dreams.”

在这次总统竞选中，我听到最有趣的故事是关于米特·罗姆尼的，他问妻子安(Ann)，"在我们年轻时，你有没有在你最疯狂的梦想中认为，我可能会成为总统？"她回答说，"亲爱的，在我最疯狂的梦想中，根本没有你！"在

When we first entered the property/casualty insurance business in 1967, my wildest dreams did not envision our current operation. Here’s how we did in the first five years after purchasing National Indemnity:

我们 1967 年首次进入财产/意外保险业务时，在我最疯狂的梦想里也没有我们设想到现在的业务。在我们买下国民保险公司最初的 5 年，客气地说，我们只是一个缓慢的起跑者，但随后情况发生了变化。下表是我们最初 5 年和最近 5 年的情况记录。

To put it charitably, we were a slow starter. But things changed. Here’s the record of the last five years:

说得好听点，我们起步慢。但是事情变了。这是过去五年的记录:

This metamorphosis has been accomplished by some extraordinary managers. Let’s look at what each has achieved.

这种质变的完成靠的是一些出色的经理人，让我们看看他们各自取得的成就。

•GEICO possesses the widest moat of any of our insurers, one carefully protected and expanded by Tony Nicely, its CEO. Last year – again – GEICO had the best growth record among major auto insurers, increasing its market share to 7.2%. When Berkshire acquired control in 1995, that share was 2.5%. Not coincidentally, annual ad expenditures by GEICO have increased from $31 million to $751 million during the same period.

• 在我们所有的保险公司里，GEICO 保险拥有最宽的"护城河"，在 CEO 托尼·莱斯利(TonyNicely)的细心维护和拓展下，去年，GEICO 在主要车险保险公司中，再次取得了最好的增长记录，市场份额上升到 7.2％。当伯克希尔 1995 年获得控制权时，它的份额是 2.5％。并非巧合的是，GEICO 的年度广告支出由同期的 3100 万美元，上升到 7.51 亿美元。

Tony, now 64, joined GEICO at 18. Every day since, he has been passionate about the company – proud of how it could both save money for its customers and provide growth opportunities for its associates. Even now, with sales at $12 billion, Tony feels GEICO is just getting started. So do I.

Tony 今年 64 岁了，他 18 岁就加入 GEICO。此后的每一天里，他都对公司充满热情，为 GEICO 如何给客户省钱并为员工提供发展机会而自豪。即使是现在销售额达到 120 亿美元的情况下，Tony 仍觉得 GEICO 的发展才刚开始，我也这么想。

Here’s some evidence. In the last three years, GEICO has increased its share of the motorcycle market from 2.1% to 6%. We’ve also recently begun writing policies on ATVs and RVs. And in November we wrote our first commercial auto policy. GEICO and National Indemnity are working together in the commercial field, and early results are very encouraging.

这里有些证据。在过去三年里，GEICO 在摩托车市场的份额从 2.1％上升到 6％。我们已经开始推出针对全地形车辆和房车车辆的险种，并 11 月份承保了第一份商业车辆的保单。GEICO 保险和国民保险公司正一起进入商业车辆保险领域，而从最初的成果来看，非常鼓舞人心。

Even in aggregate, these lines will remain a small fraction of our personal auto volume. Nevertheless, they should deliver a growing stream of underwriting profits and float.

即使合并，这些业务线也只占我们私人车辆保险市场的一小部分。尽管如此，它们应该能够提供越来越多的承保利润和浮存金。

•General Re, our international reinsurer, is by far our largest source of “home-grown” float – $23 billion at yearend. This operation is now a huge asset for Berkshire. Our ownership, however, had a shaky start.

• 我们的国际再保险业务是由通用再保险公司运营，但到目前为止是我们"本土"浮存金的最大来源，在年底达到 230 亿美元。这项业务现在是伯克希尔一项巨大的资产。可是，我们的拥有却是从提心吊胆开始的。

For decades, General Re was the Tiffany of reinsurers, admired by all for its underwriting skills and discipline. This reputation, unfortunately, outlived its factual underpinnings, a flaw that I completely missed when I made the decision in 1998 to merge with General Re. The General Re of 1998 was not operated as the General Re of 1968 or 1978.

数十年里，通用再保险都被认为是再保险业里的"蒂芙妮"(Tiffany，世界上著名的奢侈品公司，以生产昂贵的饰品著称)，因其承保技巧和纪律受到所有人的推崇。不幸的是，这种声誉其实已并不符实。当我 1998 年做出决定要并购通用再保险时，完全忽略了这一缺陷。通用再保险在 1998 年的运营方式已经与它在 1968 年或 1978 年的不同了。

Now, thanks to Joe Brandon, General Re’s CEO, and his partner, Tad Montross, the luster of the company has been restored. Joe and Tad have been running the business for six years and have been doing first-class business in a first-class way, to use the words of J. P. Morgan. They have restored discipline to underwriting, reserving and the selection of clients.

现在，多亏了通用再保险的 CEO，JoeBrandon 以及搭档 TadMontross，恢复了公司以往的光彩。Joe 和Tad 执掌公司已经 6 年，套用 J.P.摩根的话：他们一直是用一流的方式来做一流的生意。他们已经恢复了对承保、准备金以及客户的挑选上的纪律。

Their job was made more difficult by costly and time-consuming legacy problems, both in the U.S. and abroad. Despite that diversion, Joe and Tad have delivered excellent underwriting results while skillfully repositioning the company for the future.

公司在国内和国外的遗留问题，耗费巨大且旷日持久，让他们的工作更加困难。尽管有那样的牵制，Joe 和Tad 通过巧妙的对公司的未来重新定位，取得了极好的承保结果。

•Since joining Berkshire in 1986, Ajit Jain has built a truly great specialty reinsurance operation from scratch. For one-of-a-kind mammoth transactions, the world now turns to him.

• 自从 1986 年加入伯克希尔以来，阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)从零开始，建立了一个真正伟大的专业再保险业务，现在只要是那种独一无二的巨额交易，全世界都会来找他。

Last year I told you in detail about the Equitas transfer of huge, but capped, liabilities to Berkshire for a single premium of $7.1 billion. At this very early date, our experience has been good. But this doesn’t tell us much because it’s just one straw in a fifty-year-or-more wind. What we know for sure, however, is that the London team who joined us, headed by Scott Moser, is first-rate and has become a valuable asset for our insurance business.

去年，我曾详细的告诉过你，Equitas 为一笔 71 亿美元保费的单一保险，向伯克希尔转让了巨额但有赔付上限的债务。对于此笔生意的初期情况，我们的经验很管用，但这对于要被风吹五十年或更长时间后的稻草情况做出预计，这些经验并不能告诉我们更多。然而，我们可以确定的是，由 ScottMoser 为首的伦敦团队加入了我们，他们是一流的，并已经成为我们保险业务里一笔有价值的财富。

•Finally, we have our smaller operations, which serve specialized segments of the insurance market. In aggregate, these companies have performed extraordinarily well, earning above-average underwriting profits and delivering valuable float for investment.

• 最后，我们还有很小部分的业务，是服务于特殊细分的保险市场。总体上，这些公司运营情况出奇的好，赚取了高于平均水平的承保利润，并为投资提供了宝贵的浮存金。

Last year BoatU.S., headed by Bill Oakerson, was added to the group. This company manages an association of about 650,000 boat owners, providing them services similar to those offered by AAA auto clubs to drivers. Among the association’s offerings is boat insurance. Learn more about this operation by visiting its display at the annual meeting.

去年，Bill Oakerson 领导的美国船东协会(BoatU.S.)加入了我们的保险团队。这个公司管理着一个约有 65万船主组成的协会，提供给船主的服务类似于 AAA 汽车俱乐部提供给他们司机的。在协会提供服务之一是船只保险。想更多了解这方面情况，可以在每年的年会上参观他们的展示。

Below we show the record of our four categories of property/casualty insurance.

下表列示我们四个主要财产意外险的部分业绩记录.