巴菲特致股东的信（2008年）⑤保险业务

Insurance

保险业务

Our insurance group has propelled Berkshire’s growth since we first entered the business in 1967. This happy result has not been due to general prosperity in the industry. During the 25 years ending in 2007, return on net worth for insurers averaged 8.5% versus 14.0% for the Fortune 500. Clearly our insurance CEOs have not had the wind at their back. Yet these managers have excelled to a degree Charlie and I never dreamed possible in the early days. Why do I love them? Let me count the ways.

自从 1967 年我们进入这个行业以来，保险业就一直在推动伯克希尔公司的增长。这个让人欣喜的结果并不是由该行业的普遍繁荣带来的。截至 2007 年年底，过去 25 年时间内，按市值计算，保险业的平均投资回报率是8.5％，财富 500 强是 14％。很明显，我们在保险业的 CEO 们并不占天时地利。但这些经理的表现却远超出查理和我早先的预计。我爱死他们了。

At GEICO, Tony Nicely – now in his 48th year at the company after joining it when he was 18 – continues to gobble up market share while maintaining disciplined underwriting. When Tony became CEO in 1993, GEICO had 2.0% of the auto insurance market, a level at which the company had long been stuck. Now we have a 7.7% share, up from 7.2% in 2007.

Tony Nicely 在 18 岁时加入 GEICO，如今已在公司工作超过 48 年，他在坚持严格的承销纪律的同时，不断扩大市场份额。当他在 1993 年成为公司 CEO 时，GEICO 在车险领域仅有 2％的市场份额，公司很长时间以来一直徘徊在这个市场份额上下。现在我们的市场份额已经从 2007 年的 7.2％上升到了 7.7%。

The combination of new business gains and an improvement in the renewal rate on existing business has moved GEICO into the number three position among auto insurers. In 1995, when Berkshire purchased control, GEICO was number seven. Now we trail only State Farm and Allstate.

新业务的收益和现有业务的继续率的提高使得 GEICO 跃居车辆保险领域的第三名。在 1995 年，当伯克希尔取得控制权的时候，GEICO 排名第七。现在我们仅次于州立农业保险 State Farm 和好事达保险 Allstate。

GEICO grows because it saves money for motorists. No one likes to buy auto insurance. But virtually everyone likes to drive. So, sensibly, drivers look for the lowest-cost insurance consistent with first-class service. Efficiency is the key to low cost, and efficiency is Tony’s specialty. Five years ago the number of policies per employee was 299. In 2008, the number was 439, a huge increase in productivity.

GEICO 增长的原因是它能为车险购买人省钱。没人喜欢购买车险，但是基本上人人都喜欢开车。因此，明智的做法是，司机喜欢寻找保险费用最低但服务一流的保险公司。高效率是低成本的关键，而效率正是 Tony 的专长。五年前，每个雇员能获得 299 张保单。2008 年，这个数字是 439 张。生产力极大提高。

As we view GEICO’s current opportunities, Tony and I feel like two hungry mosquitoes in a nudist camp. Juicy targets are everywhere. First, and most important, our new business in auto insurance is now exploding. Americans are focused on saving money as never before, and they are flocking to GEICO. In January 2009, we set a monthly record – by a wide margin – for growth in policyholders. That record will last exactly 28 days: As we go to press, it’s clear February’s gain will be even better.

当我们审视 GEICO 现在当前的市场机会时，Tony 和我就像裸体夏令营中的两只饥饿的蚊子，利润丰厚的猎物无处不在。首先最重要的是我们汽车保险的新业务正在爆发式增长。美国人前所未有的专注于省钱，他们成群结队的走向 GEICO。2009 年 1 月，我们创下保单增长的最高月度记录，这一纪录足足持续了 28 天。当我们印刷本报告的时候，显示 2 月的增幅更加的好。

Beyond this, we are gaining ground in allied lines. Last year, our motorcycle policies increased by 23.4%, which raised our market share from about 6% to more than 7%. Our RV and ATV businesses are also growing rapidly, albeit from a small base. And, finally, we recently began insuring commercial autos, a big market that offers real promise.

除此之外，我们的其它业务也齐头并进。去年，我们摩托车保险增加了 23.4%，使我们的市场份额从 6%上升到 7%。我们房车 RV 和全地形车 ATV 同样实现快速增长，尽管其基数很少。最后，我们开始进入商业汽车保险领域，这是一个大有前途的市场。

GEICO is now saving money for millions of Americans. Go to GEICO.com or call 1-800-847-7536 and see if we can save you money as well.

GEICO 现在正在为成百上千的美国人省钱。登录 GEICO.com 或者电话 800-847-7536 看我们是否也能为你省钱。

General Re, our large international reinsurer, also had an outstanding year in 2008. Some time back, the company had serious problems (which I totally failed to detect when we purchased it in late 1998). By 2001, when Joe Brandon took over as CEO, assisted by his partner, Tad Montross, General Re’s culture had further deteriorated, exhibiting a loss of discipline in underwriting, reserving and expenses. After Joe and Tad took charge, these problems were decisively and successfully addressed. Today General Re has regained its luster. Last spring Joe stepped down, and Tad became CEO. Charlie and I are grateful to Joe for righting the ship and are certain that, with Tad, General Re’s future is in the best of hands.

我们最大的国际再保险公司通用再保险 2008 年也表现不凡。不久之前，这家公司还存在非常严重的问题(我们在 1998 年购买它时毫无察觉)。2001 年，JoeBrandon 在其搭档 TadMontross 协助接任 CEO 时，公司的情形还在进一步恶化。在承保、储备金以及费用方面都失去了纪律。Joe 和 Tad 上任之后，这些问题都得到了果断和成功的解决。今天通用再保险已经重新焕发光彩。去年春天 Joe 退休(因牵涉 AIG 财务造假丑闻被迫辞职，后加入 Alleghany 保险公司，并促成 2021 年 116 亿美元的收购)，Tad 接替他成为 CEO。查理和我对 Joe 扶正公司航向的工作感激不尽，同时我们也相信，Tad 正是通用再保险所需的那个正确的领导者。

Reinsurance is a business of long-term promises, sometimes extending for fifty years or more. This past year has retaught clients a crucial principle: A promise is no better than the person or institution making it. That’s where General Re excels: It is the only reinsurer that is backed by an AAA corporation. Ben Franklin once said, “It’s difficult for an empty sack to stand upright.” That’s no worry for General Re clients.

再保险业务是一个带有长期承诺的生意，一个保险合同有时会长达 50 年甚至更久。过去的一年，我们再次向客户传到了一个至关重要的原则：承诺并不重要，重要的是这个承诺是由谁做出。这正是通用再保险优势所在：它是惟一一家有 AAA 级公司作为背后支撑的再保险公司。本·富兰克林说过一句话："空麻袋立不直"(空头承诺靠不住)。通用再保险的客户无需担心这点。

Our third major insurance operation is Ajit Jain’s reinsurance division, headquartered in Stamford and staffed by only 31 employees. This may be one of the most remarkable businesses in the world, hard to characterize but easy to admire.

我们第三大保险业务是 Ajit Jain 的再保险部门。它的总部位于 Stamford，仅有 31 名雇员。它可能是世界上最值得称道的公司之一，难以描述但绝对值得赞扬。

From year to year, Ajit’s business is never the same. It features very large transactions, incredible speed of execution and a willingness to quote on policies that leave others scratching their heads. When there is a huge and unusual risk to be insured, Ajit is almost certain to be called.

每一年阿吉特的生意都各不相同，它的特点是大型交易、难以置信的执行速度，以及愿意承保竞争对手不愿触碰的保单。每当有一项保险存在巨大的非同一般的风险时，人们总会想到去找阿吉特。

Ajit came to Berkshire in 1986. Very quickly, I realized that we had acquired an extraordinary talent. So I did the logical thing: I wrote his parents in New Delhi and asked if they had another one like him at home. Of course, I knew the answer before writing. There isn’t anyone like Ajit.

阿吉特在 1986 年加入伯克希尔。用不了多久，我就意识到自己得到了一个超凡的天才。因此我写了一封信给他在新德里的父母，问他们是否还有另外一个这样的孩子。当然，写信之前我就知道答案会是什么。世界上根本不可能有第二个阿吉特。

Our smaller insurers are just as outstanding in their own way as the “big three,” regularly delivering valuable float to us at a negative cost. We aggregate their results below under “Other Primary.” For space reasons, we don’t discuss these insurers individually. But be assured that Charlie and I appreciate the contribution of each.

我们那些稍小些的保险业务也都以自己的方式表现杰出，像我们提到的三巨头一样。定期的以低于零的成本为我们提供宝贵的浮存金。我们将它们归类于"其他"类。出于篇幅考虑，我们不再详细个别讨论。但请相信，查理和我对他们的贡献都感激不已。

Here is the record for the four legs to our insurance stool. The underwriting profits signify that all four provided funds to Berkshire last year without cost, just as they did in 2007. And in both years our underwriting profitability was considerably better than that achieved by the industry. Of course, we ourselves will periodically have a terrible year in insurance. But, overall, I expect us to average an underwriting profit. If so, we will be using free funds of large size for the indefinite future.

下表是我们保险业务的四大核心数据。跟 2007 年一样，承保损益一栏显示去年这四大业务为伯克希尔提供了大量无成本的浮存金。这 2 年，我们的承保业务盈利能力均远远高于行业水平。当然，我们也会周期性的遭遇保险业务糟糕的年份。但是，总体来说，我们预计公司承保利润将达到平均水平。如此一来，我们将在不确定的未来免费使用大规模的的资金。