巴菲特致股东的信（2014年）②伯克希尔过去一年表现

The Year at Berkshire

伯克希尔过去一年表现

It was a good year for Berkshire on all major fronts, except one. Here are the important developments:

在过去一年，伯克希尔在几乎所有方面都取得了不俗成绩，仅有一处例外。重要进展如下：

● Our “Powerhouse Five” – a collection of Berkshire’s largest non-insurance businesses – had a record $12.4 billion of pre-tax earnings in 2014, up $1.6 billion from 2013.* The companies in this sainted group are Berkshire Hathaway Energy (formerly MidAmerican Energy), BNSF, IMC (I’ve called it Iscar in the past), Lubrizol and Marmon.

1，伯克希尔旗下非保险业务最大的"五驾马车"，2014 年的税前收益达到创记录的124 亿美元，较2013 年增加16 亿美元。这一备受赞誉的集团具体包括伯克希尔能源公司(前中美能源)、BNSF 铁路、IMC 集团(过去称其为ISCAR)、路博润(Lubrizol)和Marmon 集团。

* Throughout this letter, as well as in the “Golden Anniversary” letters included later in this report, all earnings are stated on a pre-tax basis unless otherwise designated.

在整封信中，以及本报告稍后收录的“五十周年”相关信中，除非另有说明，所有收益均按税前口径列示。

Of the five, only Berkshire Hathaway Energy, then earning $393 million, was owned by us a decade ago. Subsequently we purchased another three of the five on an all-cash basis. In acquiring the fifth, BNSF, we paid about 70% of the cost in cash and, for the remainder, issued Berkshire shares that increased the number outstanding by 6.1%. In other words, the $12 billion gain in annual earnings delivered Berkshire by the five companies over the ten-year span has been accompanied by only minor dilution. That satisfies our goal of not simply increasing earnings, but making sure we also increase per-share results.

在这五家公司之中，只有伯克希尔能源公司是十年之前就为我们所有，当时的税前收益只有3.93 亿美元。我们以全现金的方式收购了其他三家，在收购第五家BNSF 时，我们用现金支付了70%，其余30%通过发行伯克希尔股票支付，为此公司股本增加了6.1%。换言之，这五家公司在过去十年为伯克希尔带来120 亿美元的年税前收益回报，但公司的股本仅伴随轻微的稀释。这样的结果才符合我们的目标：不仅仅增加收益，而是要确保提高每股收益。

If the U.S. economy continues to improve in 2015, we expect earnings of our Powerhouse Five to improve as well. The gain could reach $1 billion, in part because of bolt-on acquisitions by the group that have already closed or are under contract.

如果美国经济在2015 年继续复苏，我们预计来自"五驾马车"的收益也将继续增长，这一收益有望达到10 亿美元，部分原因来自该集团已完成和正在进行的"补强收购"。

● Our bad news from 2014 comes from our group of five as well and is unrelated to earnings. During the year, BNSF disappointed many of its customers. These shippers depend on us, and service failures can badly hurt their businesses.

2，2014 年的坏消息也来自这"五驾马车"，但与收益无关。在过去一年，BNSF 的服务令许多客户失望。这些托运人都有赖于我们的铁路线，运营不畅将严重损害他们的业务。

BNSF is, by far, Berkshire’s most important non-insurance subsidiary and, to improve its performance, we will spend $6 billion on plant and equipment in 2015. That sum is nearly 50% more than any other railroad has spent in a single year and is a truly extraordinary amount, whether compared to revenues, earnings or depreciation charges.

到目前为止，BNSF 依然是伯克希尔最重要的非保险类子公司，为改善其业绩，我们将在2015 年在工厂和设备上投入60 亿美元。这个数字比其他任何铁路公司一年的支出都高出近50%，无论从收入、盈利还是折旧费用相比，这样的投入都堪称空前。

Though weather, which was particularly severe last year, will always cause railroads a variety of operating problems, our responsibility is to do whatever it takes to restore our service to industry-leading levels. That can’t be done overnight: The extensive work required to increase system capacity sometimes disrupts operations while it is underway. Recently, however, our outsized expenditures are beginning to show results. During the last three months, BNSF’s performance metrics have materially improved from last year’s figures.

尽管去年恶劣的天气状况尤客观上会给铁路运营带来各种问题，但我们的责任是竭尽所能将我们的服务恢复到行业领先水平。这当然不是一朝一夕之功：铁路扩建升级工程难免会影响到现有的运营。但可喜的是，我们对铁路的大力投入在近期已初显成效。在过去的一个季度里，BNSF 的业绩指标比去年的数据有了明显的改善。

● Our many dozens of smaller non-insurance businesses earned $5.1 billion last year, up from $4.7 billion in 2013. Here, as with our Powerhouse Five, we expect further gains in 2015. Within this group, we have two companies that last year earned between $400 million and $600 million, six that earned between $250 million and $400 million, and seven that earned between $100 million and $250 million. This collection of businesses will increase in both number and earnings. Our ambitions have no finish line.

3，我们数十家规模较小的非保险业务在去年的税前收益总额为51 亿美元，较2013 年的47 亿美元有了较大增长。与我们的"五驾马车"类似，我们预计2015 年有望进一步增长。在这些企业中，有2 家企业税前收益在4-6亿美元之间；有6 家企业收益在2.5-4 亿美元之间；另有7 家收益在1-2.5 亿美元之间。这一系列企业的数量和收益都将增长。我们的雄心没有终点。

● Berkshire’s huge and growing insurance operation again operated at an underwriting profit in 2014 – that makes 12 years in a row – and increased its float. During that 12-year stretch, our float – money that doesn’t belong to us but that we can invest for Berkshire’s benefit – has grown from $41 billion to $84 billion. Though neither that gain nor the size of our float is reflected in Berkshire’s earnings, float generates significant investment income because of the assets it allows us to hold.

4，伯克希尔庞大且不断增长的保险产业在2014 年再次实现了承保盈利，这也是连续12 年保持承保盈利，此外保险浮存金规模也大幅增加。在过去12 年时间里，我们的保险浮存金规模从410 亿增长至840 亿美元，尽管这些浮存金的所有权并不属于我们，但我们却可以使用其投资来为伯克希尔创造收益。尽管这一收益和浮存金规模并没有反映在伯克希尔的收益中，但由于允许我们持有的浮存金资产能够产生可观投资收益。

Meanwhile, our underwriting profit totaled $24 billion during the twelve-year period, including $2.7 billion earned in 2014. And all of this began with our 1967 purchase of National Indemnity for $8.6 million.

同时，我们在12 年间实现了240 亿美元的承保收益，其中2014 年实现27 亿美元。而这一切都始于1967年我们以860 万美元收购了国民保险公司。

● While Charlie and I search for new businesses to buy, our many subsidiaries are regularly making bolt-on acquisitions. Last year was particularly fruitful: We contracted for 31 bolt-ons, scheduled to cost $7.8 billion in aggregate. The size of these transactions ranged from $400,000 to $2.9 billion. However, the largest acquisition, Duracell, will not close until the second half of this year. It will then be placed under Marmon’s jurisdiction.

5，在查理和我寻找新的收购机会时，我们的许多子公司也在不定期的进行"补强收购"。去年这方面的成果尤为丰硕：我们签订了31 项补强收购协议，预计耗资78 亿美元。这些交易的规模从40 万美元至29 亿美元不等。

Charlie and I encourage bolt-ons, if they are sensibly-priced. (Most deals offered us aren’t.) They deploy capital in activities that fit with our existing businesses and that will be managed by our corps of expert managers. This means no more work for us, yet more earnings, a combination we find particularly appealing. We will make many more of these bolt-on deals in future years.

其中最大的一项收购金霸王(Duracell)，预计要到今年下半年才能完成。收购完成后将归Marmon 集团管理。如果价格合理，查理和我都鼓励补强式收购(向我们提供的大部分交易并不符合)。他们将资本配置到与我们现有业务相符合的业务中，收购的业务将交由我们的专业管理团队接管。这意味着我们无需更多工作去整合就能获得更多的收益回报，对于这样的天然搭配对我们来说特别有吸引力。在未来，我们将开展更多的补强收购。

● Two years ago my friend, Jorge Paulo Lemann, asked Berkshire to join his 3G Capital group in the acquisition of Heinz. My affirmative response was a no-brainer: I knew immediately that this partnership would work well from both a personal and financial standpoint. And it most definitely has.

6，两年之前，我的好友Jorge Paulo Lemann 邀请伯克希尔参与他的3G 资本对亨氏(Heinz)的收购。对此我毫无犹豫地表示同意：当时我就知道，无论从个人关系角度还是财务投资角度看，本次合伙必然顺利。最后事情发展也大致如此。

I’m not embarrassed to admit that Heinz is run far better under Alex Behring, Chairman, and Bernardo Hees, CEO, than would be the case if I were in charge. They hold themselves to extraordinarily high performance standards and are never satisfied, even when their results far exceed those of competitors.

在此我必须承认，亨氏集团在董事长AlexBehring 和CEO-BernardoHees 的管理下，要远远好于我负责的情况。即便当他们的业绩远远超越同行，他们还是坚持极高的绩效标准且从不满意。

We expect to partner with 3G in more activities. Sometimes our participation will only involve a financing role, as was the case in the recent acquisition of Tim Hortons by Burger King. Our favored arrangement, however, will usually be to link up as a permanent equity partner (who, in some cases, contributes to the financing of the deal as well). Whatever the structure, we feel good when working with Jorge Paulo.

我们希望在更多的活动中与3G 资本合作。有时我们的参与只是扮演财务投资人的角色，就像最近汉堡王(Burger King)收购TimHortons 咖啡连锁店的案例一样。然而我们最青睐的方式还是成为永久股权合伙人(在某些案例中，他们也为交易提供融资)。但不管具体结构如何，我们对与Jorge Paulo 和合作感觉很好。

Berkshire also has fine partnerships with Mars and Leucadia, and we may form new ones with them or with other partners. Our participation in any joint activities, whether as a financing or equity partner, will be limited to friendly transactions.

伯克希尔还与玛氏(Mars)和Leucadia 建立了良好的合作关系，我们可能与这些伙伴或其他伙伴结成新的合作关系。但不管是作为纯粹的财务投资者还是股权合作伙伴，我们都将仅限于友好交易(不参与恶意收购)。

● In October, we contracted to buy Van Tuyl Automotive, a group of 78 automobile dealerships that is exceptionally well-run. Larry Van Tuyl, the company’s owner, and I met some years ago. He then decided that if he were ever to sell his company, its home should be Berkshire. Our purchase was recently completed, and we are now “car guys.”

7，去年10 月，我们签约收购了VanTuyl 汽车销售公司，该集团由78 家汽车经销商组成，运营异常好。许多年前，我曾与该公司的所有者Larry Van Tuyl 有过一面之缘。当时他决定说，如果他要卖掉公司，那么他希望卖给伯克希尔。我们最近完成了收购，现在我们也算是"汽车人"了。

Larry and his dad, Cecil, spent 62 years building the group, following a strategy that made owner-partners of all local managers. Creating this mutuality of interests proved over and over to be a winner. Van Tuyl is now the fifth-largest automotive group in the country, with per-dealership sales figures that are outstanding.

Larry 和他的父亲Cecil Tuyl 花了62 年的时间建立了这个集团，遵循的策略就是让所有的本地管理人员都成为股东的合伙人。事实一次又一次的证明，创造这种相互的利益关系使公司成为最后的赢家。Van Tuyl 目前是全美第五大汽车经销集团，每个经销商的销售数字都非常出色。

In recent years, Jeff Rachor has worked alongside Larry, a successful arrangement that will continue. There are about 17,000 dealerships in the country, and ownership transfers always require approval by the relevant auto manufacturer. Berkshire’s job is to perform in a manner that will cause manufacturers to welcome further purchases by us. If we do this – and if we can buy dealerships at sensible prices – we will build a business that before long will be multiples the size of Van Tuyl’s $9 billion of sales.

近年来，Jeff Rachor 与Larry 搭档，这一成功的安排还将持续。目前全美有17000 家汽车经销商，而经销商所有权的变更总是要获得汽车制造商的同意。伯克希尔所要做的，就要是要让汽车制造商支持伯克希尔去收购更多的汽车经销商。如果我们能以合理的价格去收购更多的汽车经销商，如果我们做到这一点，那么不久我们将建立一个将是VanTuyl 每年90 亿美元销售额数倍的汽车经销业务。

With the acquisition of Van Tuyl, Berkshire now owns 91⁄2 companies that would be listed on the Fortune 500 were they independent (Heinz is the 1⁄2). That leaves 4901⁄2 fish in the sea. Our lines are out.

随着收购Van Tuyl 的完成，如果这些公司都独立的话，那么伯克希尔目前已持有《财富》500 强企业中的"九家半"(亨氏算半家)。这意味着我们还有490 家半等着去收购。路线图已经画出。

● Our subsidiaries spent a record $15 billion on plant and equipment during 2014, well over twice their depreciation charges. About 90% of that money was spent in the United States. Though we will always invest abroad as well, the mother lode of opportunities runs through America. The treasures that have been uncovered up to now are dwarfed by those still untapped. Through dumb luck, Charlie and I were born in the United States, and we are forever grateful for the staggering advantages this accident of birth has given us.

8，2014 年，我们的子公司总计在厂房和设备上投入了创纪录的150 亿美元，远远超过折旧费用两倍。其中大约有90%的资金花在美国国内。尽管我们也会一直在海外投资，但发展机遇的源泉还是在美国。迄今为止，已经发现的宝藏与尚未发现的宝藏相比相形见绌。幸运的是，查理和我出生在美国，我们对如天赐之福般的"美国人优势"永怀感念。

● Berkshire’s yearend employees – including those at Heinz – totaled a record 340,499, up 9,754 from last year. The increase, I am proud to say, included no gain at headquarters (where 25 people work). No sense going crazy.

9，伯克希尔的年终员工总数(包括亨氏在内)达到创纪录的340499 人，比去年增加了9754 人。我可以自豪的指出，这一增长不包括公司总部的工作人员(那里依然是25 人)。诸位不必惊慌。

● Berkshire increased its ownership interest last year in each of its “Big Four” investments – American Express, Coca-Cola, IBM and Wells Fargo. We purchased additional shares of IBM (increasing our ownership to 7.8% versus 6.3% at yearend 2013). Meanwhile, stock repurchases at Coca-Cola, American Express and Wells Fargo raised our percentage ownership of each. Our equity in Coca-Cola grew from 9.1% to 9.2%, our interest in American Express increased from 14.2% to 14.8% and our ownership of Wells Fargo grew from 9.2% to 9.4%. And, if you think tenths of a percent aren’t important, ponder this math: For the four companies in aggregate, each increase of one-tenth of a percent in our ownership raises Berkshire’s portion of their annual earnings by $50 million.

10，去年伯克希尔对"四大巨头"的持仓均有增持，即美国运通、可口可乐、IBM 和富国银行。我们增持了IBM 的股票(持股比例从2013 年底的6.3%增加到7.8%)，与此同时，可口可乐、美国运通和富国银行的股票回购也提高了我们的持股比例。我们在可口可乐公司的持股比例从9.1%增加到了9.2%，美国运通从14.2%增加到了14.8%，富国银行从9.2%增加到了9.4%。如果你认为0.1%并不重要，那么请仔细看看这个数字：对于四家企业来说，我们持股比例每上升0.1%，伯克希尔每年的收益就会增加5000 万美元。

These four investees possess excellent businesses and are run by managers who are both talented and shareholder-oriented. At Berkshire, we much prefer owning a non-controlling but substantial portion of a wonderful company to owning 100% of a so-so business. It’s better to have a partial interest in the Hope Diamond than to own all of a rhinestone.

这四家企业拥有优秀的业务，他们的管理层能力出众且以股东利益为导向。在伯克希尔，我们宁可拥有一家优秀业务非控股但相当大一部分的股份，也不愿拥有一家普通企业的100%。与其拥有整个水钻不如拥有部分希望之钻。(宁要鲜桃一口，不要烂杏一筐)

If Berkshire’s yearend holdings are used as the marker, our portion of the “Big Four’s” 2014 earnings before discontinued operations amounted to $4.7 billion (compared to $3.3 billion only three years ago). In the earnings we report to you, however, we include only the dividends we receive – about $1.6 billion last year. (Again, three years ago the dividends were $862 million.) But make no mistake: The $3.1 billion of these companies’ earnings we don’t report are every bit as valuable to us as the portion Berkshire records.

如果按照伯克希尔年末持股比例来看，我们在四大巨头在2014 年经常性经营收益中应占47 亿美元(3 年前是33 亿美元)。但在我们报告的收益中，仅仅包括收到的约16 亿美元股息(3 年前的股息是8.62 亿美元)。但不要搞错了：对伯克希尔来说没有报告的31 亿美元收益与报告的部分一样有价值。

The earnings these investees retain are often used for repurchases of their own stock – a move that enhances Berkshire’s share of future earnings without requiring us to lay out a dime. Their retained earnings also fund business opportunities that usually turn out to be advantageous. All that leads us to expect that the per-share earnings of these four investees, in aggregate, will grow substantially over time (though 2015 will be a tough year for the group, in part because of the strong dollar). If the expected gains materialize, dividends to Berkshire will increase and, even more important, so will our unrealized capital gains. (For the package of four, our unrealized gains already totaled $42 billion at yearend.)

这些被投资企业保留的收益通常会用于回购股票，这意味着我们不花一分钱就增加了伯克希尔在未来收益中所占的份额。他们留存收益也为那些通常被证明是有利可图的商业机会提供资金。所有的这些都让我们预计，随着时间的推移，这四家被投资公司的每股收益将大幅增长(尽管2015 年对该集团而言将是艰难的一年，部分原因是美元走强)。如果预期的增长实现，那么伯克希尔的股息也将增加，更为重要的是，我们在这些企业未实现的资本收益也将增加(截至去年底，我们在这四家企业中的未实现的资本收益已经达到420 亿美元)。

Our flexibility in capital allocation – our willingness to invest large sums passively in non-controlled businesses – gives us a significant advantage over companies that limit themselves to acquisitions they can operate. Our appetite for either operating businesses or passive investments doubles our chances of finding sensible uses for Berkshire’s endless gusher of cash.

我们在资本配置方面的灵活性，即我们愿意被动地将大笔资金投入到非控制企业中，与那些将投资限定于自己能够经营范围内的企业相比，这使得我们拥有显著的优势。我们对直接经营业务和被动投资的灵活姿态，使得我们能够合理利用伯克希尔源源不断的现金的机会增加了一倍。

● I’ve mentioned in the past that my experience in business helps me as an investor and that my investment experience has made me a better businessman. Each pursuit teaches lessons that are applicable to the other. And some truths can only be fully learned through experience. (In Fred Schwed’s wonderful book, Where Are the Customers’ Yachts?, a Peter Arno cartoon depicts a puzzled Adam looking at an eager Eve, while a caption says, “There are certain things that cannot be adequately explained to a virgin either by words or pictures.” If you haven’t read Schwed’s book, buy a copy at our annual meeting. Its wisdom and humor are truly priceless.)

11，我过去曾说过，我的商业经验有助于我成为一名投资者，而我的投资经验使我成为一名更好的商人。二者的经验教训是互相促进的。有一些真理只能通过实践才能彻底领悟。(Fred Schwed 的佳作《客户的游艇在哪儿》中有一副PeterArno 的漫画，画中一个困惑的亚当看着一个渴望的夏娃，而配文写道，"有些事情无论是用文字还是图片都无法让一位处女彻底明白"。如果你没有读过Schwed 的书，那就在我们年会上买一本。它的智慧和幽默真是无价之宝。)

Among Arno’s “certain things,” I would include two separate skills, the evaluation of investments and the management of businesses. I therefore think it’s worthwhile for Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, our two investment managers, to each have oversight of at least one of our businesses. A sensible opportunity for them to do so opened up a few months ago when we agreed to purchase two companies that, though smaller than we would normally acquire, have excellent economic characteristics. Combined, the two earn $100 million annually on about $125 million of net tangible assets.

除了Arno 说的"确定的事情"，我认为还需要两个独立的技能：对投资的评估能力和对企业的管理能力。因此我认为我们两位投资经理Todd Combs 和TedWeschler 有能力至少管理我们的一项业务。几个月前我们同意收购的两家公司，让我们有机会做到这一点。这两家公司虽然规模小于我们通常会收购的公司，但具有优秀的经济特征。两家公司净有形资产约1.25 亿美元，年税前收益约1 亿美元。

I’ve asked Todd and Ted to each take on one as Chairman, in which role they will function in the very limited way that I do with our larger subsidiaries. This arrangement will save me a minor amount of work and, more important, make the two of them even better investors than they already are (which is to say among the best).

我已经要求Todd 和Ted 各担任一家公司的董事长。他们将以非常有限的方式发挥作用，就像我对我们较大的子公司所做的那样。这种安排为我分担了一点工作，更重要的是，它将使他们两人成为比现在更好的投资者(也就是最好的投资者之一)。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Late in 2009, amidst the gloom of the Great Recession, we agreed to buy BNSF, the largest purchase in Berkshire’s history. At the time, I called the transaction an “all-in wager on the economic future of the United States.”

2009 年底，在"大衰退"的阴霾中，我们同意收购BNSF 铁路。这是伯克希尔历史上规模最大的一笔收购。当时我将这笔交易形容为"对美国经济前景的全部押注"。

That kind of commitment was nothing new for us. We’ve been making similar wagers ever since Buffett Partnership Ltd. acquired control of Berkshire in 1965. For good reason, too: Charlie and I have always considered a “bet” on ever-rising U.S. prosperity to be very close to a sure thing.

这种押注对我们来说并不新鲜。早在1965 年，巴菲特合伙人公司BPL 收购伯克希尔控股权以来，我们一直进行类似的押注。同样，根据充分的理由，查理和我一直认为，"押注"美国继续繁荣下去几乎是板上钉钉的事情。

Indeed, who has ever benefited during the past 238 years by betting against America? If you compare our country’s present condition to that existing in 1776, you have to rub your eyes in wonder. In my lifetime alone, real per-capita U.S. output has sextupled. My parents could not have dreamed in 1930 of the world their son would see. Though the preachers of pessimism prattle endlessly about America’s problems, I’ve never seen one who wishes to emigrate (though I can think of a few for whom I would happily buy a one-way ticket).

事实上，在过去238 年中，谁曾因为押注美国衰落而受益了？如果你将美国的现状与1776 年进行对比，你简直不敢相信自己的眼睛。仅在我有生之年，美国的实际人均产出就翻了6 倍。我的父母在1930 年做梦都不会想到，他们的儿子今天所看到的世界。虽然那些悲观主义传教士没完没了地说美国存在这样那样的问题，但我从未见过有人真的希望移民国外(虽然我能够想到一些人，而且我很乐意为他们购买单程票)。

The dynamism embedded in our market economy will continue to work its magic. Gains won’t come in a smooth or uninterrupted manner; they never have. And we will regularly grumble about our government. But, most assuredly, America’s best days lie ahead.

我们市场经济蕴含的活力仍将继续发挥它的魔力。要收获总要经历挫折，不可能一帆风顺。人们会经常的抱怨我们的政府。但确定无疑的是，美国最好的日子还在前面。

With this tailwind working for us, Charlie and I hope to build Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value by (1) constantly improving the basic earning power of our many subsidiaries; (2) further increasing their earnings through bolt-on acquisitions; (3) benefiting from the growth of our investees; (4) repurchasing Berkshire shares when they are available at a meaningful discount from intrinsic value; and (5) making an occasional large acquisition. We will also try to maximize results for you by rarely, if ever, issuing Berkshire shares.

在这种有利形势下，查理和我希望通过以下方式提升伯克希尔的每股内在价值：(1)不断提高我们众多子公司的基本盈利能力；(2)通过补强型收购进一步增加它们的收益；(3)受益于我们投资对象的增长；(4)当伯克希尔股价大幅低于内在价值时进行回购股份；(5)偶尔进行大规模收购。我们还将努力通过发行很少(如果有可能的话)的伯克希尔股份让你的成果最大化。

Those building blocks rest on a rock-solid foundation. A century hence, BNSF and Berkshire Hathaway Energy will still be playing vital roles in our economy. Homes and autos will remain central to the lives of most families. Insurance will continue to be essential for both businesses and individuals. Looking ahead, Charlie and I see a world made to order for Berkshire. We feel fortunate to be entrusted with its management.

这些方式都依赖其坚实的基础。一个世纪内，BNSF 铁路和伯克希尔能源公司仍将继续在美国经济中扮演重要角色。住房和汽车仍将是大部分家庭生活的中心。保险将继续对企业和个人至关重要。展望未来，查理和我看到伯克希尔仍将大有用武之地。我们对受托管理伯克希尔深感荣幸。