巴菲特致股东的信（2018年）⑧美国顺风

The American Tailwind

美国顺风

On March 11th, it will be 77 years since I first invested in an American business. The year was 1942, I was 11, and I went all in, investing $114.75 I had begun accumulating at age six. What I bought was three shares of Cities Service preferred stock. I had become a capitalist, and it felt good.

到今年3月11日，从我第一次投资美国企业至今就整整77年了。那一年是1942年，我11岁，倾其所有投入了114.75美元——这是我从6岁起就开始攒的钱。我买了3股城市服务公司 (Cities Service) 的优先股。我成了一个资本家，感觉棒极了。

Let’s now travel back through the two 77-year periods that preceded my purchase. That leaves us starting in 1788, a year prior to George Washington’s installation as our first president. Could anyone then have imagined what their new country would accomplish in only three 77-year lifetimes?

现在让我们回溯到我买入之前的两个77年。这把我们带回了1788年，乔治·华盛顿 (George Washington) 就任我们第一任总统的前一年。那时的人们有谁能想到，他们的新国家仅仅在三个77年的时间里会取得怎样的成就？

During the two 77-year periods prior to 1942, the United States had grown from four million people – about 1⁄2 of 1% of the world’s population – into the most powerful country on earth. In that spring of 1942, though, it faced a crisis: The U.S. and its allies were suffering heavy losses in a war that we had entered only three months earlier. Bad news arrived daily.

在1942年之前的两个77年里，美国从一个400万人口的国家——约占世界人口的0.5%——成长为地球上最强大的国家。然而在1942年的春天，美国面临一场危机：美国及其盟友在三个月前刚刚卷入的一场战争中接连失利。坏消息每天传来。

Despite the alarming headlines, almost all Americans believed on that March 11th that the war would be won. Nor was their optimism limited to that victory. Leaving aside congenital pessimists, Americans believed that their children and generations beyond would live far better lives than they themselves had led.

尽管头条新闻令人心惊，但在那个3月11日，几乎所有美国人都相信战争终将获胜。他们的乐观也不仅限于这场胜利。撇开天生的悲观主义者不谈，美国人相信自己的孩子和后代将过上远比自己好得多的生活。

The nation’s citizens understood, of course, that the road ahead would not be a smooth ride. It never had been. Early in its history our country was tested by a Civil War that killed 4% of all American males and led President Lincoln to openly ponder whether “a nation so conceived and so dedicated could long endure.” In the 1930s, America suffered through the Great Depression, a punishing period of massive unemployment.

当然，这个国家的公民也明白，前方的路不会一帆风顺。从来都不是。建国初期，我们的国家经受了一场内战的考验，那场战争夺走了4%美国男性的生命，让林肯总统 (Abraham Lincoln) 公开思考"一个如此理想、如此奉献的国家能否长久存续"。1930年代，美国经历了大萧条——一段大规模失业的惨痛时期。

Nevertheless, in 1942, when I made my purchase, the nation expected post-war growth, a belief that proved to be well-founded. In fact, the nation’s achievements can best be described as breathtaking.

然而在1942年，当我买入股票时，这个国家对战后的增长充满期待，而这一信念被证明是完全有根据的。事实上，这个国家的成就只能用"令人叹为观止"来形容。

Let’s put numbers to that claim: If my $114.75 had been invested in a no-fee S&P 500 index fund, and all dividends had been reinvested, my stake would have grown to be worth (pre-taxes) $606,811 on January 31, 2019 (the latest data available before the printing of this letter). That is a gain of 5,288 for 1. Meanwhile, a $1 million investment by a tax-free institution of that time – say, a pension fund or college endowment – would have grown to about $5.3 billion.

让我用数字来说明：如果我当年的114.75美元投入了一只零费用的标普500指数基金，并且所有股息都进行再投资，到2019年1月31日（本信付印前最新可用数据），我的持仓市值将增长到税前606,811美元。相当于每1美元赚了5288美元。同时，当年一家免税机构——比如养老基金或大学捐赠基金——投入的100万美元，将增长到大约53亿美元。

Let me add one additional calculation that I believe will shock you: If that hypothetical institution had paid only 1% of assets annually to various “helpers,” such as investment managers and consultants, its gain would have been cut in half, to $2.65 billion. That’s what happens over 77 years when the 11.8% annual return actually achieved by the S&P 500 is recalculated at a 10.8% rate.

让我再补充一个我相信会让你们震惊的计算：如果这家假想的机构每年仅把资产的1%付给投资经理和顾问等各种"帮手"，那么它的最终收益将减少一半，只有26.5亿美元。这就是77年间，标普500指数实际上实现的11.8%年回报率被降低到10.8%后所发生的事。

Those who regularly preach doom because of government budget deficits (as I regularly did myself for many years) might note that our country’s national debt has increased roughly 400-fold during the last of my 77-year periods. That’s 40,000%! Suppose you had foreseen this increase and panicked at the prospect of runaway deficits and a worthless currency. To “protect” yourself, you might have eschewed stocks and opted instead to buy 31⁄4 ounces of gold with your $114.75.

那些经常鼓吹政府预算赤字必将带来厄运的人（就像我自己多年来经常做的那样）或许应该注意到，在我人生的这最后一个77年里，我们国家的国债增长了大约400倍。那可是40,000%！假设你预见到了这种增长，并对失控的赤字和货币贬值的前景恐慌不已。为了"保护"自己，你可能会避开股票，转而选择用114.75美元买入3.25盎司黄金。

And what would that supposed protection have delivered? You would now have an asset worth about $4,200, less than 1% of what would have been realized from a simple unmanaged investment in American business. The magical metal was no match for the American mettle.

那么这种所谓的保护会带来什么呢？你现在拥有的资产价值约为4200美元，不到简单投资于美国企业所能实现收益的1%。神奇的金属（gold）比不上美国人的勇气（mettle）。

Our country’s almost unbelievable prosperity has been gained in a bipartisan manner. Since 1942, we have had seven Republican presidents and seven Democrats. In the years they served, the country contended at various times with a long period of viral inflation, a 21% prime rate, several controversial and costly wars, the resignation of a president, a pervasive collapse in home values, a paralyzing financial panic and a host of other problems. All engendered scary headlines; all are now history.

我们国家这种几乎难以置信的繁荣，是在两党合作的基础上取得的。自1942年以来，我们有过7位共和党总统和7位民主党总统。在他们的任期内，这个国家先后经历了长期的恶性通胀、21%的最优贷款利率、几场有争议且代价高昂的战争、一位总统辞职、房价全面崩溃、瘫痪全社会的金融恐慌，以及一大堆其他问题。所有这些都产生了骇人的头条新闻；但现在统统成了历史。

Christopher Wren, architect of St. Paul’s Cathedral, lies buried within that London church. Near his tomb are posted these words of description (translated from Latin): “If you would seek my monument, look around you.” Those skeptical of America’s economic playbook should heed his message.

圣保罗大教堂的建筑师克里斯托弗·雷恩 (Christopher Wren) 就葬在这座伦敦教堂中。他的墓旁刻着这样一段话（译自拉丁文）："如果你想寻找我的纪念碑，就看看你的周围。"那些对美国经济前景持怀疑态度的人，应该好好琢磨这句话。

In 1788 – to go back to our starting point – there really wasn’t much here except for a small band of ambitious people and an embryonic governing framework aimed at turning their dreams into reality. Today, the Federal Reserve estimates our household wealth at $108 trillion, an amount almost impossible to comprehend.

回到我们的起点1788年——那时的美国其实什么都没有，只有一小群心怀壮志的人和一个旨在将他们的梦想变为现实的、刚刚萌芽的治理框架。而今天，美联储估计我们的家庭财富达到108万亿美元，这个数字大到几乎无法想象。

Remember, earlier in this letter, how I described retained earnings as having been the key to Berkshire’s prosperity? So it has been with America. In the nation’s accounting, the comparable item is labeled “savings.” And save we have. If our forefathers had instead consumed all they produced, there would have been no investment, no productivity gains and no leap in living standards.

还记得我在这封信前面说过的吗？留存收益是伯克希尔繁荣的关键。美国也一样。在国家的账本上，对应的项目叫做"储蓄"。我们确实一直在储蓄。如果我们的先辈把他们生产的一切都消费掉了，就不会有投资，不会有生产率提升，也不会有生活水平的飞跃。

Charlie and I happily acknowledge that much of Berkshire’s success has simply been a product of what I think should be called The American Tailwind. It is beyond arrogance for American businesses or individuals to boast that they have “done it alone.” The tidy rows of simple white crosses at Normandy should shame those who make such claims.

查理和我欣然承认，伯克希尔的成功在很大程度上不过是我所说的"美国顺风"的产物。美国企业或个人要是吹嘘自己"全靠自己干出来的"，那就不只是傲慢了。诺曼底海滩上那些整齐排列的朴素白色十字架，应该让发出这种论调的人感到羞愧。

There are also many other countries around the world that have bright futures. About that, we should rejoice: Americans will be both more prosperous and safer if all nations thrive. At Berkshire, we hope to invest significant sums across borders.

世界上还有许多其他国家拥有光明的未来。对此我们应该欢欣：如果所有国家都繁荣，美国人将更加富裕、更加安全。在伯克希尔，我们也希望进行大量的海外投资。

Over the next 77 years, however, the major source of our gains will almost certainly be provided by The American Tailwind. We are lucky – gloriously lucky – to have that force at our back.

然而，在未来的77年里，我们收益的主要来源几乎确定将来自"美国顺风"。我们很幸运——无比幸运——有这股力量在我们身后。