巴菲特致股东的信（2019年）②留存收益的力量

The Power of Retained Earnings

留存收益的力量

In 1924, Edgar Lawrence Smith, an obscure economist and financial advisor, wrote Common Stocks as Long Term Investments, a slim book that changed the investment world. Indeed, writing the book changed Smith himself, forcing him to reassess his own investment beliefs.

1924年，一位名不见经传的经济学家兼理财顾问埃德加·劳伦斯·史密斯 (Edgar Lawrence Smith) 写了一本薄薄的小书——《普通股的长期投资》(Common Stocks as Long Term Investments)——这本小册子改变了整个投资世界。事实上，写这本书也改变了史密斯本人，迫使他重新审视自己的投资信念。

Going in, he planned to argue that stocks would perform better than bonds during inflationary periods and that bonds would deliver superior returns during deflationary times. That seemed sensible enough. But Smith was in for a shock.

他原本计划论证：在通货膨胀时期，股票表现优于债券；在通货紧缩时期，债券回报更佳。听上去挺有道理。然而等待史密斯的是一个意外。

His book began, therefore, with a confession: “These studies are the record of a failure – the failure of facts to sustain a preconceived theory.” Luckily for investors, that failure led Smith to think more deeply about how stocks should be evaluated.

因此，他在书的开篇就写了一段自白："这些研究是对一次失败的记录——事实未能支撑一个先入为主的理论。"对投资者来说这却是一件幸事，因为这次失败促使史密斯更深入地思考应该如何评估股票。

For the crux of Smith’s insight, I will quote an early reviewer of his book, none other than John Maynard Keynes: “I have kept until last what is perhaps Mr. Smith’s most important, and is certainly his most novel, point. Well-managed industrial companies do not, as a rule, distribute to the shareholders the whole of their earned profits. In good years, if not in all years, they retain a part of their profits and put them back into the business. Thus there is an element of compound interest (Keynes’ italics) operating in favour of a sound industrial investment. Over a period of years, the real value of the property of a sound industrial is increasing at compound interest, quite apart from the dividends paid out to the shareholders.”

关于史密斯洞见的精髓，我来引用一位他著作的早期书评者的话——此人不是别人，正是约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯 (John Maynard Keynes)："我把史密斯先生最重要的、也无疑是最新颖的观点留到最后来谈。通常而言，管理良好的工业公司不会将其全部利润都分配给股东。至少在年景好的时候——即使不是每年如此——它们会保留一部分利润并将其投回业务之中。于是，一种复利效应（凯恩斯原文斜体）便在健全的工业投资中发挥着作用。经年累月，一家稳健工业企业资产的真实价值，在向股东派发的股息之外，还在以复利的方式不断增长。"

And with that sprinkling of holy water, Smith was no longer obscure.

得到这位经济学大家的"圣水加持"，史密斯从此声名鹊起。

It’s difficult to understand why retained earnings were unappreciated by investors before Smith’s book was published. After all, it was no secret that mind-boggling wealth had earlier been amassed by such titans as Carnegie, Rockefeller and Ford, all of whom had retained a huge portion of their business earnings to fund growth and produce ever-greater profits. Throughout America, also, there had long been small-time capitalists who became rich following the same playbook.

很难理解为什么在史密斯这本书出版之前，留存收益的价值没有得到投资者的认可。毕竟，众所周知，卡耐基 (Carnegie)、洛克菲勒 (Rockefeller) 和福特 (Ford) 等巨头早就积累了令人瞠目结舌的财富，靠的就是保留大部分经营利润来为增长提供资金、创造更多收益。在全美各地，也一直有不少小资本家按照同样的路子发家致富。

Nevertheless, when business ownership was sliced into small pieces – “stocks” – buyers in the pre-Smith years usually thought of their shares as a short-term gamble on market movements. Even at their best, stocks were considered speculations. Gentlemen preferred bonds.

然而，当企业所有权被切割成无数小片——也就是"股票"——时，史密斯之前那个年代的买家通常把股票视为对市场波动的短期赌博。即使在最好的情况下，股票也被当作投机行为。绅士们青睐的是债券。

Though investors were slow to wise up, the math of retaining and reinvesting earnings is now well understood. Today, school children learn what Keynes termed “novel”: combining savings with compound interest works wonders.

虽然投资者开窍很慢，但留存和再投资收益的数学原理如今已被广泛理解。今天，连小学生都学会了凯恩斯当年称之为"新奇"的道理：把储蓄和复利结合起来，就能创造奇迹。

At Berkshire, Charlie and I have long focused on using retained earnings advantageously. Sometimes this job has been easy – at other times, more than difficult, particularly when we began working with huge and ever- growing sums of money.

在伯克希尔，查理和我一直致力于有效运用留存收益。有时候这份工作很轻松——有时候则非常困难，特别是当我们开始面对规模庞大且不断膨胀的资金时。

In our deployment of the funds we retain, we first seek to invest in the many and diverse businesses we already own. During the past decade, Berkshire’s depreciation charges have aggregated $65 billion whereas the company’s internal investments in property, plant and equipment have totaled $121 billion. Reinvestment in productive operational assets will forever remain our top priority.

在部署留存资金时，我们首先寻求投资于我们已经拥有的众多业务。过去十年间，伯克希尔的折旧费用合计650亿美元，而公司内部对不动产、厂房和设备的投资总计达到1,210亿美元。对生产性经营资产的再投资永远是我们的首要任务。

In addition, we constantly seek to buy new businesses that meet three criteria. First, they must earn good returns on the net tangible capital required in their operation. Second, they must be run by able and honest managers. Finally, they must be available at a sensible price.

此外，我们不断寻求收购符合三项标准的新企业。第一，其运营所需的净有形资本必须创造良好的回报。第二，必须由能干且诚实的管理者来经营。第三，必须以合理的价格出售。

When we spot such businesses, our preference would be to buy 100% of them. But the opportunities to make major acquisitions possessing our required attributes are rare. Far more often, a fickle stock market serves up opportunities for us to buy large, but non-controlling, positions in publicly-traded companies that meet our standards.

当我们找到这样的企业时，最好是100%买下来。但符合我们要求的重大收购机会非常稀缺。更多的时候，反复无常的股市为我们提供了机会，让我们得以大量买入符合标准的上市公司的非控制性股权。

Whichever way we go – controlled companies or only a major stake by way of the stock market – Berkshire’s financial results from the commitment will in large part be determined by the future earnings of the business we have purchased. Nonetheless, there is between the two investment approaches a hugely important accounting difference, essential for you to understand.

无论采取哪种方式——控股还是仅通过股市持有大笔股权——伯克希尔投资的财务回报在很大程度上将取决于所购企业的未来盈利能力。尽管如此，两种投资方式之间有一个非常重要的会计差异，各位必须理解。

In our controlled companies, (defined as those in which Berkshire owns more than 50% of the shares), the earnings of each business flow directly into the operating earnings that we report to you. What you see is what you get.

在我们的控股公司（即伯克希尔持有50%以上股权的公司）中，每项业务的收益都直接流入我们向你们报告的经营收益。所见即所得。

In the non-controlled companies, in which we own marketable stocks, only the dividends that Berkshire receives are recorded in the operating earnings we report. The retained earnings? They’re working hard and creating much added value, but not in a way that deposits those gains directly into Berkshire’s reported earnings.

在非控股公司——也就是我们持有其流通股票的公司——中，只有伯克希尔收到的股息才会被计入我们报告的经营收益。至于留存收益呢？它们在勤奋地发挥作用、创造大量增值，但不会以直接计入伯克希尔报告收益的方式体现出来。

At almost all major companies other than Berkshire, investors would not find what we’ll call this “non- recognition of earnings” important. For us, however, it is a standout omission, of a magnitude that we lay out for you below.

在除伯克希尔之外的几乎所有大公司，投资者都不会觉得我们所说的这种"收益不被确认"现象有多重要。但对我们来说，这却是一项突出的遗漏，其规模之大，详见下文。

Here, we list our 10 largest stock-market holdings of businesses. The list distinguishes between their earnings that are reported to you under GAAP accounting – these are the dividends Berkshire receives from those 10 investees – and our share, so to speak, of the earnings the investees retain and put to work. Normally, those companies use retained earnings to expand their business and increase its efficiency. Or sometimes they use those funds to repurchase significant portions of their own stock, an act that enlarges Berkshire’s share of the company’s future earnings.

下面我们列出了我们在股市上持股最大的10家公司。表格分别列出了根据GAAP会计准则向你们报告的收益——也就是伯克希尔从这10家被投资公司收到的股息——以及这些公司保留并投入运营的收益中属于我们的那份份额。通常，这些公司会用留存收益来扩展业务、提高效率。有时它们也会用这些资金回购大量自家股票，此举会扩大伯克希尔在该公司未来收益中的占比。

Obviously, the realized gains we will eventually record from partially owning each of these companies will not neatly correspond to “our” share of their retained earnings. Sometimes, alas, retentions produce nothing. But both logic and our past experience indicate that from the group we will realize capital gains at least equal to – and probably better than – the earnings of ours that they retained. (When we sell shares and realize gains, we will pay income tax on the gain at whatever rate then prevails. Currently, the federal rate is 21%.)

显然，我们最终从部分持有的这些公司中实现的收益，并不会与"我们"在其留存收益中的份额整整齐齐地对上号。有时候，留存收益不会带来任何回报，这令人遗憾。但逻辑和我们过往的经验都表明，从这一组投资中，我们实现的资本利得至少等于——而且大概率高于——它们为我们保留的那部分收益。（当我们出售股票并实现收益时，需要按照届时适用的税率缴纳联邦所得税。目前的税率为21%。）

It is certain that Berkshire’s rewards from these 10 companies, as well as those from our many other equity holdings, will manifest themselves in a highly irregular manner. Periodically, there will be losses, sometimes company-specific, sometimes linked to stock-market swoons. At other times – last year was one of those – our gain will be outsized. Overall, the retained earnings of our investees are certain to be of major importance in the growth of Berkshire’s value.

可以肯定的是，伯克希尔从这10家公司以及我们持有的众多其他股权中获得的回报，将以极不规律的方式展现出来。时不时会出现亏损，有时是单个公司的问题，有时与整个股市的暴跌有关。而在另一些时候——去年就是这样——我们的收益会格外丰厚。总体而言，我们被投资公司的留存收益，对伯克希尔价值的增长毫无疑问具有重大意义。

Mr. Smith got it right.

史密斯先生说得完全正确。