巴菲特致股东的信（2024年）②错误——是的，伯克希尔也会犯错

Mistakes – Yes, We Make Them at Berkshire

错误——是的，伯克希尔也会犯错

Sometimes I’ve made mistakes in assessing the future economics of a business I’ve purchased for Berkshire – each a case of capital allocation gone wrong. That happens with both judgments about marketable equities – we view these as partial ownership of businesses – and the 100% acquisitions of companies.

有时候，我在评估伯克希尔收购企业的未来经济前景时会判断失误——每一次都是资本配置上的差错。这种情况既发生在对流通股票的判断上——我们将其视为企业的部分所有权——也发生在对公司的全资收购上。

At other times, I’ve made mistakes when assessing the abilities or fidelity of the managers Berkshire is hiring. The fidelity disappointments can hurt beyond their financial impact, a pain that can approach that of a failed marriage.

还有些时候，我对伯克希尔聘用的管理者的能力或忠诚度看走了眼。忠诚方面的失望带来的伤痛远超财务层面的影响，那种痛苦堪比一段失败的婚姻。

A decent batting average in personnel decisions is all that can be hoped for. The cardinal sin is delaying the correction of mistakes or what Charlie Munger called “thumb-sucking.” Problems, he would tell me, cannot be wished away. They require action, however uncomfortable that may be.

在人事决策上，能保持过得去的命中率就算不错了。最不可饶恕的罪过是拖延纠正错误，也就是查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 所说的"吮手指"。查理会对我说，问题不会因为你的一厢情愿而消失，必须采取行动，不管有多不舒服。

During the 2019-23 period, I have used the words “mistake” or “error” 16 times in my letters to you. Many other huge companies have never used either word over that span. Amazon, I should acknowledge, made some brutally candid observations in its 2021 letter. Elsewhere, it has generally been happy talk and pictures.

在2019至2023年间，我在给你们的信中使用了16次"错误"或"失误"这样的字眼。许多其他大公司在同一时期从未用过这类词。公允地说，亚马逊 (Amazon) 在其2021年信中做了一些极为坦诚的反思。而其他地方嘛，大多是报喜不报忧加上精美配图。

I have also been a director of large public companies at which “mistake” or “wrong” were forbidden words at board meetings or analyst calls. That taboo, implying managerial perfection, always made me nervous (though, at times, there could be legal issues that make limited discussion advisable. We live in a very litigious society.)

我也曾在一些大型上市公司担任董事，在那些公司的董事会议或分析师电话会上，"错误"或"失误"是不允许说出口的。这种暗示管理层完美无缺的禁忌总让我感到不安（当然，有时出于法律方面的考量，减少讨论也是合理的。我们毕竟生活在一个动辄打官司的社会。）

At 94, it won’t be long before Greg Abel replaces me as CEO and will be writing the annual letters. Greg shares the Berkshire creed that a “report” is what a Berkshire CEO annually owes to owners. And he also understands that if you start fooling your shareholders, you will soon believe your own baloney and be fooling yourself as well.

到了94岁，离格雷格·阿贝尔 (Greg Abel) 接替我出任CEO并执笔年度信的日子已经不远了。格雷格认同伯克希尔的信条——"报告"是伯克希尔CEO每年对股东应尽的义务。他也深知，一旦你开始糊弄股东，很快你就会连自己也信了那套鬼话，到头来把自己也糊弄了。

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〔译文源于芒格书院整理的巴菲特致股东的信〕

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