巴菲特致股东的信（1997年）
⑪普通股投资

Common Stock Investments

       Below we present our common stock investments. Those with a market value of more than $750 million are itemized.

股票投资

下表是伯克希尔市价超过 7.5 亿美元以上的股票投资。

* Represents tax-basis cost which, in aggregate, is $1.8 billion less than GAAP cost.

注：成本以税务为基础，比 GAAP 的账面成本少 18 亿美元。

       We made net sales during the year that amounted to about 5% of our beginning portfolio. In these, we significantly reduced a few of our holdings that are below the $750 million threshold for itemization, and we also modestly trimmed a few of the larger positions that we detail. Some of the sales we made during 1997 were aimed at changing our bond-stock ratio moderately in response to the relative values that we saw in each market, a realignment we have continued in 1998.

今年我们大概减持了 5%左右仓位的投资组合，大幅减持了一些市值未达到披露门槛的股票(卖出麦当劳)，此外也适度减持了一部分详细披露的股票仓位，主要是为了调整债券与股票投资之间的比例，以响应我们在每个市场看到的相对价值的认知，1998 年将继续这种调整。

       Our reported positions, we should add, sometimes reflect the investment decisions of GEICO's Lou Simpson. Lou independently runs an equity portfolio of nearly $2 billion that may at times overlap the portfolio that I manage, and occasionally he makes moves that differ from mine.

不过有一点必须强调的是，报表上显示的投资部位，有部分是 GEICO 保险保险公司 Lou Simpson 所做的决策，Lou 独自管理将近 20 亿美元的股票投资组合，当然其中有些部位与我重叠，但通常他的投资动作与我有别。

       Though we don't attempt to predict the movements of the stock market, we do try, in a very rough way, to value it. At the annual meeting last year, with the Dow at 7,071 and long-term Treasury yields at 6.89%, Charlie and I stated that we did not consider the market overvalued if 1) interest rates remained where they were or fell, and 2) American business continued to earn the remarkable returns on equity that it had recently recorded. So far, interest rates have fallen -- that's one requisite satisfied -- and returns on equity still remain exceptionally high. If they stay there -- and if interest rates hold near recent levels -- there is no reason to think of stocks as generally overvalued. On the other hand, returns on equity are not a sure thing to remain at, or even near, their present levels.

虽然我们从来不去试图预测股市走势，但我们确实试着大约评估其合理价位。记得在去年的股东会时，道琼指数约为 7071 点，长期国债的利率为 6.89%，查理跟我就曾公开表示，如果符合以下两点条件，则股市并未高估：1)利率维持不变或继续下滑，以及 2)美国企业继续维持现有的高股东权益回报率。现在看起来，利率确实又继续下滑，这一点算是符合条件，另一方面，股东权益回报率仍旧维持在高位，换句话说，若这种情况继续维持下去，同时利率也能够维持现状，则一般来说没有理由认为现在的股市过于高估，不过从保守角度来看，股东权益回报率实在很难永远维持在现有的这种荣景。

       In the summer of 1979, when equities looked cheap to me, I wrote a Forbes article entitled "You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus." At that time skepticism and disappointment prevailed, and my point was that investors should be glad of the fact, since pessimism drives down prices to truly attractive levels. Now, however, we have a very cheery consensus. That does not necessarily mean this is the wrong time to buy stocks: Corporate America is now earning far more money than it was just a few years ago, and in the presence of lower interest rates, every dollar of earnings becomes more valuable. Today's price levels, though, have materially eroded the "margin of safety" that Ben Graham identified as the cornerstone of intelligent investing. 

记得 1979 年的夏天，当时的股票市场便宜的股票垂手可得，为此我特地在福布斯写了一篇文章，名为《当市场一片欢腾时，你将付出高昂的价格 》，当时市场弥漫着怀疑与悲观的情绪，不过当时我的观点认为这种现象投资人应该要感到高兴才对，因为悲观的情绪使得许多公司的股价跌到相当吸引人的价位，不过现在看来我们似乎已经快要达到乐观的共识了，当然这不代表现在就不能买股票，近年来美国企业的盈利大增，现在的利率水准不断下降，企业赚取的每一美元收益比起过去都更有价值。然而，现在股票的价格水平，已经严重地脱离的格雷厄姆一再强调的安全边际，这是聪明投资哲学的基石。

                                * * * * * * * * * * * *

       In last year's annual report, I discussed Coca-Cola, our largest holding. Coke continues to increase its market dominance throughout the world, but, tragically, it has lost the leader responsible for its outstanding performance. Roberto Goizueta, Coke's CEO since 1981, died in October. After his death, I read every one of the more than 100 letters and notes he had written me during the past nine years. Those messages could well serve as a guidebook for success in both business and life.

                                * * * * * * * * * * * *

去年年报我花了相当多的篇幅谈到我们最大的持股可口可乐，虽然目前可口可乐仍然继续扩大其在全世界饮料市场的霸主地位，不过很不幸的是，该公司总裁 Roberto Goizueta 却在去年十月因肺癌过世，因为他的存在，可口可乐才有如此出色的表现。在他死后，我逐一阅读了他过去九年来给我写的上百篇的书信笔记，这些书信确实可以做为如何成功经营企业与人生的最佳教材。

       In these communications, Roberto displayed a brilliant and clear strategic vision that was always aimed at advancing the well-being of Coke shareholders. Roberto knew where he was leading the company, how he was going to get there, and why this path made the most sense for his owners -- and, equally important, he had a burning sense of urgency about reaching his goals. An excerpt from one handwritten note he sent to me illustrates his mind-set: "By the way, I have told Olguita that what she refers to as an obsession, you call focus. I like your term much better." Like all who knew Roberto, I will miss him enormously.

在这些书信中，Roberto 展现出高瞻远瞩的见识，总是将重点放在如何增进可口可乐股东的权益，Roberto很清楚他要将公司带往何处，以及要如何才能到达目的地，同时了解为何这样的方法最适合所有的股东，当然更重要的是他对于达成这样目标抱持着强烈的渴望，有一张他手写给我的字条最能充分说明当时他的心境(对了，我跟 Olguita 提到有关于她常常讲的“痴迷”，我个人比较喜欢你的说法“专注”)。就像是所有认识 Roberto 的人一样，我会永远怀念他！

       Consistent with his concern for the company, Roberto prepared for a seamless succession long before it seemed necessary. Roberto knew that Doug Ivester was the right man to take over and worked with Doug over the years to ensure that no momentum would be lost when the time for change arrived. The Coca-Cola Company will be the same steamroller under Doug as it was under Roberto.

一如他对于公司的关心，Roberto 早就安排好接班的问题，他认为 Doug Ivester 是接手的最佳人选，与他共事多年的经验足以确保在公司领导高层更迭的同时，公司的运作不致受到任何的影响，相信在 Doug 的领导之下，可口可乐仍能一本初衷勇往直前。

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〔译文源于芒格书院整理的巴菲特致股东的信〕

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