巴菲特致股东的信（1999年）④财产意外险的经营哲学

The Economics of Property/Casualty Insurance

Our main business -- though we have others of great importance -- is insurance. To understand Berkshire, therefore, it is necessary that you understand how to evaluate an insurance company. The key determinants are: (1) the amount of float that the business generates; (2) its cost; and (3) most critical of all, the long-term outlook for both of these factors.

财产意外险的经营哲学

保险是我们最主要的本业，当然其它事业也相当重要，想要了解伯克希尔，你就必须知道如何去评估一家保险公司，其中主要的关键因素有(1)这个行业所能产生的浮存金数量(2)以及获得浮存金的成本(3)最重要的是这些因素的长期展望。

To begin with, float is money we hold but don't own. In an insurance operation, float arises because premiums are received before losses are paid, an interval that sometimes extends over many years. During that time, the insurer invests the money. This pleasant activity typically carries with it a downside: The premiums that an insurer takes in usually do not cover the losses and expenses it eventually must pay. That leaves it running an "underwriting loss," which is the cost of float. An insurance business has value if its cost of float over time is less than the cost the company would otherwise incur to obtain funds. But the business is a lemon if its cost of float is higher than market rates for money.

首先浮存金是一项我们持有但却不属于我们的资金，在保险公司的营运中，浮存金产生的原因在于保险公司在真正支付损失理赔之前，一般会先向保户收取保费，在这期间保险公司会将资金运用在其它投资之上，当然这样的好处也必须要付出代价，通常保险业者收取的保费并不足以覆盖最后支付出去的相关损失与费用，于是保险公司便会发生承保损失，这就是浮存金的成本，而当一家公司取得浮存金成本，就长期而言低于从其它渠道取得资金的成本时，它就有存在的价值，否则一旦保险业务取得浮存金的成本若远高于货币市场利率时，它就像是一颗极酸的柠檬。

A caution is appropriate here: Because loss costs must be estimated, insurers have enormous latitude in figuring their underwriting results, and that makes it very difficult for investors to calculate a company's true cost of float. Errors of estimation, usually innocent but sometimes not, can be huge. The consequences of these miscalculations flow directly into earnings. An experienced observer can usually detect large-scale errors in reserving, but the general public can typically do no more than accept what's presented, and at times I have been amazed by the numbers that big-name auditors have implicitly blessed. In 1999 a number of insurers announced reserve adjustments that made a mockery of the "earnings" that investors had relied on earlier when making their buy and sell decisions. At Berkshire, we strive to be conservative and consistent in our reserving. Even so, we warn you that an unpleasant surprise is always possible.

有一点必须特别注意的是，因为损失成本必须依赖估算，所以保险业者对于承保结算的成绩有相当大伸缩的空间，连带使得投资人很难正确地衡量一家保险公司真正的浮存金成本，估计错误，通常是无心，但有时却是故意，与真实的结果往往会有很大的差距，而这种结果直接反映在公司的损益表上，有经验的行家通常可以通过检查公司的准备提列情形发现重大的错误，但对于一般投资大众来说，除了被迫接受财务报表的数字之外，别无他法，而我个人常常被这些经过各大会计师事务所背书的财务报告所吓到，1999 年有许多保险业者宣布，对先前不当提列准备金而导致投资人形成错误决策的骗术进行调整，不过在伯克希尔，我们在提列准备金时，都尽量采取最保守的做法，不过我还是要警告大家，保险业所发生的意外，通常都不会是什么好消息。

The table that follows shows (at intervals) the float generated by the various segments of Berkshire's insurance operations since we entered the business 33 years ago upon acquiring National Indemnity Company (whose traditional lines are included in the segment "Other Primary"). For the table we have calculated our float -- which we generate in large amounts relative to our premium volume -- by adding net loss reserves, loss adjustment reserves, funds held under reinsurance assumed and unearned premium reserves, and then subtracting agents balances, prepaid acquisition costs, prepaid taxes and deferred charges applicable to assumed reinsurance. (Got that?)

下表中所显示的数字是，伯克希尔自取得国民保险公司经营权，进入保险业务 33 年以来所贡献的浮存金(其中传统业务包含在其它主险项下)，在这张计算浮存金的表中(相对于收到的保费收入，我们持有的浮存金部位算是相当大的)，我们将所有的损失准备、损失费用调整准备、再保险预先收取的资金与未赚取保费加总后，再扣除应付佣金、预付并购成本、预付税负以及取得再保业务的相关递延费用，得出浮存金的数额，弄清楚了吗？

Growth of float is important -- but its cost is what's vital. Over the years we have usually recorded only a small underwriting loss -- which means our cost of float was correspondingly low -- or actually had an underwriting profit, which means we were being paid for holding other people's money. Indeed, our cumulative result through 1998 was an underwriting profit. In 1999, however, we incurred a $1.4 billion underwriting loss that left us with float cost of 5.8%. One mildly mitigating factor: We enthusiastically welcomed $400 million of the loss because it stems from business that will deliver us exceptional float over the next decade. The balance of the loss, however, was decidedly unwelcome, and our overall result must be judged extremely poor. Absent a mega-catastrophe, we expect float cost to fall in 2000, but any decline will be tempered by our aggressive plans for GEICO, which we will discuss later.

浮存金持续成长虽然很重要，但是取得它的成本却更关键，多年以来，我们的承保损失一直控制在相当低的限度，这代表我们浮存金的成本也非常的低，有时甚至还有承保收益，这等于是由别人付费让我们来保管他们的资金，我们在 1998 年实现了承保收益，不过很不幸，1999 年又发生了 14 亿美元的承保损失，这使得我们浮存金的成本一下暴增到 5.8%，令人庆幸的是，其中有一笔 4 亿美元的损失，将可以在未来十年内提供给我们一笔高额的浮存金，当然其它的损失就让人觉得不太愉快，这样的成绩很明显的让人无法接受，除非再发生重大的天灾人祸，我们预期 2000 年的浮存金成本将会下降，不过任何的下降都必须面临 GEICO 保险强力营销计划的阻拦，关于这点在后面我还会再详细叙述。

There are a number of people who deserve credit for manufacturing so much "no-cost" float over the years. Foremost is Ajit Jain. It's simply impossible to overstate Ajit's value to Berkshire: He has from scratch built an outstanding reinsurance business, which during his tenure has earned an underwriting profit and now holds $6.3 billion of float.

能够取得这笔免成本的浮存金要归功于许多人，这其中贡献最大的当属阿吉特·贾恩，他对于伯克希尔贡献的价值实在是难以估算，在他的任期间，从无到有一手建立起伯克希尔的再保险业务，如今不但持有 63 亿美元的浮存金，同时每年还维持稳定的承保盈利。

In Ajit, we have an underwriter equipped with the intelligence to properly rate most risks; the realism to forget about those he can't evaluate; the courage to write huge policies when the premium is appropriate; and the discipline to reject even the smallest risk when the premium is inadequate. It is rare to find a person possessing any one of these talents. For one person to have them all is remarkable.

在阿吉特的身上，我们看到一位核保人员如何运用智慧将风险合理的定价，能够理性回绝无法衡量的风险，同时又能勇敢地接受高额但合理的保单，严守纪律拒绝任何不合理定价的微小风险，我们很难在一般人身上找到这类的特点，而要三者合一更是绝无仅有。

Since Ajit specializes in super-cat reinsurance, a line in which losses are infrequent but extremely large when they occur, his business is sure to be far more volatile than most insurance operations. To date, we have benefitted from good luck on this volatile book. Even so, Ajit's achievements are truly extraordinary.

阿吉特全心全力投入的巨灾再保业务，这是损失发生及不稳定，但一发生即非常惨重的险种，可以肯定的是，阿吉特绝对将面临比其它险种变动更大的状况，所幸到目前为止，伯克希尔在这类业务的运气还算不错，但即便如此，阿吉特的表现依然可圈可点。

In a smaller but nevertheless important way, our "other primary" insurance operation has also added to Berkshire's intrinsic value. This collection of insurers has delivered a $192 million underwriting profit over the past five years while supplying us with the float shown in the table. In the insurance world, results like this are uncommon, and for their feat we thank Rod Eldred, Brad Kinstler, John Kizer, Don Towle and Don Wurster.

其它规模较小但同等重要的“其它保险”营运一样为伯克希尔增添了许多内在价值，总结过去五年来，这群保险公司为我们贡献了 1.92 亿美元的承保收益，外加上表所显示的浮存金，在保险世界里，能够有这样的成绩实属不易，这都要感谢 Rod、Brad、John、Don 等人。

As I mentioned earlier, the General Re operation had an exceptionally poor underwriting year in 1999 (though investment income left the company well in the black). Our business was extremely underpriced, both domestically and internationally, a condition that is improving but not yet corrected. Over time, however, the company should develop a growing amount of low-cost float. At both General Re and its Cologne subsidiary, incentive compensation plans are now directly tied to the variables of float growth and cost of float, the same variables that determine value for owners.

就像是先前我曾提过的，通用再保险 1999 年的承保绩效相当的惨烈，虽然投资收益足以让这家公司免于亏损，我们的保费定价实在是过低，不管是国内或海外业务皆是如此，虽然目前情况已有改进但却尚未完全矫正过来，不过就长期而言，我认为这家公司应该还是能够稳定地贡献低成本的浮存金，目前在通用再保险以及其位于科隆的子公司，经理人的绩效奖金多寡完全取决于浮存金成长速度以及其取得成本，这同时也是股东们最重视，也是决定公司价值的几项主要数据。

Even though a reinsurer may have a tightly focused and rational compensation system, it cannot count on every year coming up roses. Reinsurance is a highly volatile business, and neither General Re nor Ajit's operation is immune to bad pricing behavior in the industry. But General Re has the distribution, the underwriting skills, the culture, and -- with Berkshire's backing -- the financial clout to become the world's most profitable reinsurance company. Getting there will take time, energy and discipline, but we have no doubt that Ron Ferguson and his crew can make it happen.

虽然再保业者都有一套相当明确、合理的奖励计划，但实在是很能保证每年都能够有亮丽的成绩，再保险是变动相当大的产业，不管是通用再保险或甚至是阿吉特都很难免除同行杀价竞争的不当行为，不过通用再保险拥有营销渠道、承保技巧、企业文化等优势，加上在伯克希尔强大的财务支持之下，极有潜力成为全世界盈利最佳的再保险公司，当然要达到这样的目标绝对需要时间、精力以及纪律，相信罗恩·弗格森(Ron Ferguson)及其经营团队绝对能够完成这个目标。