巴菲特致股东的信（2005年）⑨债务与风险

Debt and Risk

债务与风险

As we consolidate MidAmerican, our new balance sheet may suggest that Berkshire has expanded its tolerance for borrowing. But that’s not so. Except for token amounts, we shun debt, turning to it for only three purposes:

合并中美能源之后，我们新的资产负债表可能会让大家认为，伯克希尔对借债的容忍度已经有所增加，但事实并非如此，除了象征意义的数量之外，我们回避债务，只是为了以下三种目的才会求助于债务：

1)We occasionally use repos as a part of certain short-term investing strategies that incorporate ownership of U.S. government (or agency) securities. Purchases of this kind are highly opportunistic and involve only the most liquid of securities. A few years ago, we entered into several interesting transactions that have since been unwound or are running off. The offsetting debt has likewise been cut substantially and before long may be gone.

1、我们偶而利用回购协议作为某种短期投资策略的一个组成部分，其中包括持有美国政府(或其机构)证券。购买这种类型的证券是高度机会主义的，只能涉及最具流动性的证券。几年前，我们进行了几次有趣的交易都毫发无损或者全身而退。对应债务同样已经大幅度缩减并且不久将全部清除。(外汇白银等衍生品)

2) We borrow money against portfolios of interest-bearing receivables whose risk characteristics we understand. We did this in 2001 when we guaranteed $5.6 billion of bank debt to take over, in partnership with Leucadia, a bankrupt Finova (which held a broad range of receivables). All of that debt has been repaid. More recently, we have borrowed to finance a widely-diversified, predictably-performing portfolio of manufactured-home receivables managed by Clayton. Alternatively, we could “securitize” – that is, sell – these receivables, but retain the servicing of them. If we followed this procedure, which is common in the industry, we would not show the debt that we do on our balance sheet, and we would also accelerate the earnings we report. In the end, however, we would earn less money. Were market variables to change so as to favor securitization (an unlikely event), we could sell part of our portfolio and eliminate the related debt. Until then, we prefer better profits to better cosmetics.

2、我们会为自己了解其风险特征的带息应收账款组合而借债。2001 年我们就曾经这样操作过，为了与Leucadia 合伙收购破产的 Finova 金融公司(这家公司有很多种类的应收账款)，我们为 56 亿美元的银行借款提供了担保。最近我们借款给 Clayton 管理的一个广泛多元化的、业绩能够预测的预制房屋应收账款组合提供财务支持。作为选择，我们可能将这些应收账款"证券化"，也就是说将其出售，但我们将继续保持相应的服务。如果我们采取类似的这种在业内十分常见的操作程序，在资产负债表上并不会反映这样做所产生的债务，而且将加快报告收益的时间，可是最终我们的盈利会相对较少一些。如果市场因素的变化使证券化对我们更有利时(这种情形不太可能发生)，我们将会出售一部分资产组合并消除相关的债务。在这种情况发生之前，我们宁愿要更好的利润而不是更好的财务包装。

3) At MidAmerican, we have substantial debt, but it is that company’s obligation only. Though it will appear on our consolidated balance sheet, Berkshire does not guarantee it.

3、中美能源有相当高的债务，但这些债务只是这家公司的债务而已，虽然这笔债务将出现在我们的合并资产负债表上，但伯克希尔并没有为其提供担保。

Even so, this debt is unquestionably secure because it is serviced by MidAmerican’s diversified stream of highly-stable utility earnings. If there were to be some bolt from the blue that hurt one of MidAmerican’s utility properties, earnings from the others would still be more than ample to cover all debt requirements. Moreover, MidAmerican retains all of its earnings, an equity-building practice that is rare in the utility field.

尽管如此，这笔债务毫无疑问是十分安全的，因为用以支付债务利息的是中美能源多元化的高度稳定的公用事业收入。如果出现什么晴天霹雳似的突发事件，使中美能源的公用事业资产其中之一受到损害，那么，其公用事业资产的收入仍将远远高于支付所有债务利息的水平。不仅如此，中美能源保留其所有的收益，中美能源这种操作在公用事业业内是非常罕见的。

From a risk standpoint, it is far safer to have earnings from ten diverse and uncorrelated utility operations that cover interest charges by, say, a 2:1 ratio than it is to have far greater coverage provided by a single utility. A catastrophic event can render a single utility insolvent – witness what Katrina did to the local electric utility in New Orleans – no matter how conservative its debt policy. A geographical disaster – say, an earthquake in a Western state – can’t have the same effect on MidAmerican. And even a worrier like Charlie can’t think of an event that would systemically decrease utility earnings in any major way. Because of MidAmerican’s ever-widening diversity of regulated earnings, it will always utilize major amounts of debt.

从风险的角度来说，拥有十种各不相同且各不相关的公用事业收入足以支付利息，假设二者比例为 2∶1，与单一来源但支付能力更大的收入相比，前者要安全得多。不管公司的债务政策多么保守，一个灾难性事件就会让单独一个公用业务陷入破产境地——Katrina 飓风摧毁了新奥尔良当地的电力事业就是明证。一个地理灾难，比如在美国西部地区发生地震，却不会对中美能源产生类似的毁灭性打击，即使是像查理这样的忧虑者，也不会认为一场事故能够大幅度减少这家公司的公用事业收入。由于中美能源政府管制业务收入的多元化程度不断增强，这家公司能够充分利用大量的债务。

And that’s about it. We are not interested in incurring any significant debt at Berkshire for acquisitions or operating purposes. Conventional business wisdom, of course, would argue that we are being too conservative and that there are added profits that could be safely earned if we injected moderate leverage into our balance sheet.

我们对债务的态度基本上就是这样。我们对于伯克希尔为了并购或经营的目的，而发生任何大量的债务根本不感兴趣。当然，根据传统的商业智慧，我们在财务上显得太过保守，如果我们在资产负债表中加入适当的财务杠杆，无疑能够安全地增加盈利。

Maybe so. But many of Berkshire’s hundreds of thousands of investors have a large portion of their net worth in our stock (among them, it should be emphasized, a large number of our board and key managers) and a disaster for the company would be a disaster for them. Moreover, there are people who have been permanently injured to whom we owe insurance payments that stretch out for fifty years or more. To these and other constituencies we have promised total security, whatever comes: financial panics, stock-exchange closures (an extended one occurred in 1914) or even domestic nuclear, chemical or biological attacks.

也许如此吧。但成千上万的投资者将其个人很大一部分净资产投资到伯克希尔股票之上(应该强调的是，其中包括我们大部分董事会成员和主要经理人)，公司的一个重大灾难就会成为这些投资者们个人的一个重大灾难。不仅如此，对于那些我们已经向其收取了 50 年甚至更多年份保费的人们，会造成永远无法弥补的伤害。对于这些以及其他客户，我们已经承诺，无论发生什么情况，他们的投资都会绝对安全，无论是金融恐慌、股市关闭(例如1914 年拖延了很长时间的股市关闭)、甚至是美国遭受核武器、化学或生物武器袭击。

We are quite willing to accept huge risks. Indeed, more than any other insurer, we write high-limit policies that are tied to single catastrophic events. We also own a large investment portfolio whose market value could fall dramatically and quickly under certain conditions (as happened on October 19, 1987). Whatever occurs, though, Berkshire will have the net worth, the earnings streams and the liquidity to handle the problem with ease.

我们十分乐意承保巨大的风险，实际上，我们为单独一种巨大灾难事件承保远远超过其保险公司的最高上限的保险金额，我们还持有在某种情况下(如 1987 年 10 月 19 日股市崩盘)市值可能将迅速大幅下跌的巨额投资组合。不论发生什么情况，伯克希尔都有足够的资本净值、现金流和流动性轻而易举地处理这些问题。

Any other approach is dangerous. Over the years, a number of very smart people have learned the hard way that a long string of impressive numbers multiplied by a single zero always equals zero. That is not an equation whose effects I would like to experience personally, and I would like even less to be responsible for imposing its penalties upon others.

除此之外，任何其他解决问题的方式都是危险的。多年来，一些非常聪明的投资人经过痛苦的经历已经懂得：在长一串让人动心的数字上，乘以一个零，结果只能是零。我永远不想亲身体验这个等式的影响力有多大，我也永远不想因为将其惩罚加之于他人而承担罪责。