巴菲特致股东的信（2008年）①概述

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东：

Our decrease in net worth during 2008 was $11.5 billion, which reduced the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 9.6%. Over the last 44 years (that is, since present management took over) book value has grown from $19 to $70,530, a rate of 20.3% compounded annually.*

公司 2008 年的账面价值减少 115 亿美元，A/B 股每股账面价值下降了 9.6%(标普-31.8%)，自现任管理层接手的 44 年以来，每股账面价值由当初的 19 美元成长到目前的 70530 美元，年复合成长率约为 20.3%。

*All per-share figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares. Figures for the B shares are 1/30th of those shown for A.

*本报告中使用的所有每股数字均适用于伯克希尔的A股。B股的数字是A股的1/30。

The table on the preceding page, recording both the 44-year performance of Berkshire’s book value and the S&P 500 index, shows that 2008 was the worst year for each. The period was devastating as well for corporate and municipal bonds, real estate and commodities. By yearend, investors of all stripes were bloodied and confused, much as if they were small birds that had strayed into a badminton game.

上表记录的伯克希尔股票账面价值和标普指数过去 44 年的表现显示，2008 年对两者都是最坏的年景。这一时期对于企业和市政债券、房地产和大宗商品市场来说也是灾难性的。截至年底，各种类型的投资者晕头转向且伤痕累累，仿佛一群误入羽毛球赛场的小鸟。

As the year progressed, a series of life-threatening problems within many of the world’s great financial institutions was unveiled. This led to a dysfunctional credit market that in important respects soon turned non-functional. The watchword throughout the country became the creed I saw on restaurant walls when I was young: “In God we trust; all others pay cash.”

这一年中，随着时间推移，世界上很多大金融机构内的致命问题暴露出来。这使得机能紊乱的信贷市场在很多重要领域失去功能。我年幼时在一家餐馆墙壁上看到的标语成为现在社会上的口号："我们只相信上帝，其余人请付现金。"

By the fourth quarter, the credit crisis, coupled with tumbling home and stock prices, had produced a paralyzing fear that engulfed the country. A freefall in business activity ensued, accelerating at a pace that I have never before witnessed. The U.S. – and much of the world – became trapped in a vicious negative-feedback cycle. Fear led to business contraction, and that in turn led to even greater fear.

到了第四季度，信贷危机加上房价和股市的暴跌，导致了人们严重的恐惧情绪，席卷了整个国家。随之而来的是整个商业活动的自由落体运动，而且是我前所未见的加速下落。美国和世界的大部分地区都陷入了一种恶性负反馈循环。恐惧导致商业萎缩，商业萎缩导致了更大的恐惧。

This debilitating spiral has spurred our government to take massive action. In poker terms, the Treasury and the Fed have gone “all in.” Economic medicine that was previously meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel. These once-unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome aftereffects. Their precise nature is anyone’s guess, though one likely consequence is an onslaught of inflation. Moreover, major industries have become dependent on Federal assistance, and they will be followed by cities and states bearing mind-boggling requests. Weaning these entities from the public teat will be a political challenge. They won’t leave willingly.

不断螺旋上升的悲观气氛促使政府不得不采取大规模行动。用扑克牌局的术语描述，财政部和美联储已经全押 ALLIN。如果说此前为经济开出的药都是论杯装，那最近就是论桶。这些曾经不可想象的用药剂量几乎必然带来不受欢迎的后遗症。尽管一个可能的后果是恶性通货膨胀，但是它们的确切后果谁也说不准。此外，主要行业都变得依赖于政府的援助，紧随其后的是各市和州提出的各种难以置信的请求。让这些机构从公共财政乳头上断奶，将会是一项政治挑战。他们才不会自愿离开。

Whatever the downsides may be, strong and immediate action by government was essential last year if the financial system was to avoid a total breakdown. Had one occurred, the consequences for every area of our economy would have been cataclysmic. Like it or not, the inhabitants of Wall Street, Main Street and the various Side Streets of America were all in the same boat.

即使负面影响非常大，但为了让金融系统避免彻底崩溃，政府去年采取的强有力的紧急措施是必不可少的。一旦金融体系彻底崩溃，所有的经济领域都将造受灾难性的后果。不论你是否喜欢，华尔街、主街和美国街道上的所有人现在都在同一条船上。

Amid this bad news, however, never forget that our country has faced far worse travails in the past. In the 20th Century alone, we dealt with two great wars (one of which we initially appeared to be losing); a dozen or so panics and recessions; virulent inflation that led to a 211⁄2% prime rate in 1980; and the Great Depression of the 1930s, when unemployment ranged between 15% and 25% for many years. America has had no shortage of challenges.

尽管身处坏消息之中，但不要忘记，我们的国家曾经面临过比这更糟糕的局面。仅仅在 20 世纪，我们就经历过两次大战(其中有一次我们似乎都要输掉战争了)，十多次的恐慌和衰退。1980 年的恶性通货膨胀，曾导致利率高达 21.5％。还有 1930 年代的大萧条，失业率一直在 15-25％间徘徊。美国可从不缺挑战。

Without fail, however, we’ve overcome them. In the face of those obstacles – and many others – the real standard of living for Americans improved nearly seven-fold during the 1900s, while the Dow Jones Industrials rose from 66 to 11,497. Compare the record of this period with the dozens of centuries during which humans secured only tiny gains, if any, in how they lived. Though the path has not been smooth, our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time. It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so. America’s best days lie ahead.

然后，我们成功的克服了它们。面对这些障碍，以及其他很多障碍，美国人的实际生活水准在 20 世纪提高了七倍，道琼斯工业指数从 66 点上升到 11497 点。与之形成对比的是，在之前数十个世纪中，人类在生活上的改善微乎其微(如果有的话)。尽管前进之路并不平坦，但我们的经济体系在过去运转得非常不错。没有其他体系能像它那样激发出人类的潜力，而且这套体系还会继续如此运作。美国最好的日子还在前头。

Take a look again at the 44-year table on page 2. In 75% of those years, the S&P stocks recorded a gain. I would guess that a roughly similar percentage of years will be positive in the next 44. But neither Charlie Munger, my partner in running Berkshire, nor I can predict the winning and losing years in advance. (In our usual opinionated view, we don’t think anyone else can either.) We’re certain, for example, that the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 – and, for that matter, probably well beyond – but that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall.

在过去 44 年中，75％的时间标普指数实现正收益。我猜，在接下来 44 年中，大概有相同比例的年份也相当不错。但无论是管理伯克希尔的合伙人查理·芒格还是我，都不能提前预知未来年景的好坏。我们固执的认为，其他人也做不到。我们能确定的是，2009 年的经济状况将会惨不忍睹，就这一点而言，和可能会持续很久。但是这个结论也不能告诉我们股市会涨还是会跌。

In good years and bad, Charlie and I simply focus on four goals:

无论是年景好坏，查理和我都简单地专注以下四个目标：

(1)maintaining Berkshire’s Gibraltar-like financial position, which features huge amounts of excess liquidity, near-term obligations that are modest, and dozens of sources of earnings and cash;

1、保持伯克希尔直布罗陀海峡般宽阔的财务状况。这意味着要有大量的流动性、适度的短期债务、以及数十个收益与现金的来源；

(2)widening the “moats” around our operating businesses that give them durable competitive advantages;

2、拓宽保护我们生意的"护城河"，以保持其长期的竞争优势；

(3)acquiring and developing new and varied streams of earnings;

3、收购和拓展各种各样新的利润来源；

(4)expanding and nurturing the cadre of outstanding operating managers who, over the years, have delivered Berkshire exceptional results.

4、扩大和培养优秀的管理团队，这些人多年来为伯克希尔创造出非凡价值。