巴菲特致股东的信（2008年）②伯克希尔的2008年

Berkshire in 2008

伯克希尔的2008年

Most of the Berkshire businesses whose results are significantly affected by the economy earned below their potential last year, and that will be true in 2009 as well. Our retailers were hit particularly hard, as were our operations tied to residential construction. In aggregate, however, our manufacturing, service and retail businesses earned substantial sums and most of them – particularly the larger ones – continue to strengthen their competitive positions. Moreover, we are fortunate that Berkshire’s two most important businesses – our insurance and utility groups – produce earnings that are not correlated to those of the general economy. Both businesses delivered outstanding results in 2008 and have excellent prospects.

去年，伯克希尔生意中的大多数都受到经济下行的显著影响，盈利低于潜在水平，而且 2009 年还会如此。我们的零售业务受到的打击尤其严重，我们和建筑相关的制造业务也是这样。尽管如此，总体而言，我们的制造业、服务业和零售业的收益相当可观，它们中的大多数，尤其是那些规模较大的业务，继续巩固其竞争优势。更值得庆幸的是，伯克希尔的两项最重要的业务：保险和公用事业集团，产生的利润和整体经济相关性不大。这两项业务在 2008 年都取得了出色的业绩，前景也都非常好。

As predicted in last year’s report, the exceptional underwriting profits that our insurance businesses realized in 2007 were not repeated in 2008. Nevertheless, the insurance group delivered an underwriting gain for the sixth consecutive year. This means that our $58.5 billion of insurance “float” – money that doesn’t belong to us but that we hold and invest for our own benefit – cost us less than zero. In fact, we were paid $2.8 billion to hold our float during 2008. Charlie and I find this enjoyable.

正如去年年报中提到的，2007 年我们保险业务实现的卓越的承保利润在 2008 年不会再现。不过，保险集团还是连续第六年实现承保盈利。这意味着我们保险业的 585 亿浮存金虽然不属于我们，但是由我们持有，并经由投资产生收益，我们却什么都不用付出。事实上，持有这笔浮存金在 2008 年还给我们带来了 28 亿美元的收益。查理和我发现这买卖还真不错。

Over time, most insurers experience a substantial underwriting loss, which makes their economics far different from ours. Of course, we too will experience underwriting losses in some years. But we have the best group of managers in the insurance business, and in most cases they oversee entrenched and valuable franchises. Considering these strengths, I believe that we will earn an underwriting profit over the years and that our float will therefore cost us nothing. Our insurance operation, the core business of Berkshire, is an economic powerhouse.

大多数保险公司都经历了严重的承保损失，这让它们的经济状况远不同于我们。当然，在某些年份我们也会经历承保损失。但我们拥有保险行业最优秀的经理人团队，多数情况下，他们管理着根深蒂固的有价值的特许经营权。考虑到这些优势，我相信我们会持续实现承保盈利，我们持有的浮存金也不会产生任何成本。保险业是伯克希尔核心业务，是我们经济上的发动机。

Charlie and I are equally enthusiastic about our utility business, which had record earnings last year and is poised for future gains. Dave Sokol and Greg Abel, the managers of this operation, have achieved results unmatched elsewhere in the utility industry. I love it when they come up with new projects because in this capital-intensive business these ventures are often large. Such projects offer Berkshire the opportunity to put out substantial sums at decent returns.

查理和我对我们的公用事业业务同样乐观，该业务去年实现了盈利，而且未来前景也将是平稳的。该业务的经理人 DaveSokol 和 GregAbel，取得了在公用事业行业从未有过的成绩。每当他们发现新的项目我都会欢喜雀跃。在这个资本密集的行业，每个项目投资都会很大，这让伯克希尔能够把大量资金投入到有不错回报的行业。

Things also went well on the capital-allocation front last year. Berkshire is always a buyer of both businesses and securities, and the disarray in markets gave us a tailwind in our purchases. When investing, pessimism is your friend, euphoria the enemy.

去年我们在资本配置上也做得不错。伯克希尔一直都是企业和证券的买家。市场的混乱让我们在收购时一路顺风。投资时，悲观的市场是你的朋友，狂热的市场则是你的敌人。

In our insurance portfolios, we made three large investments on terms that would be unavailable in normal markets. These should add about $11⁄2 billion pre-tax to Berkshire’s annual earnings and offer possibilities for capital gains as well. We also closed on our Marmon acquisition (we own 64% of the company now and will purchase its remaining stock over the next six years). Additionally, certain of our subsidiaries made “tuck-in” acquisitions that will strengthen their competitive positions and earnings.

在保险领域，我们做了三项在正常市场环境下无法完成的重大投资。这些投资会给伯克希尔带来 15 亿税前收益以及相应的资本利得的可能。我们完成了对 Marmon 的收购(现在拥有 64％股份，并将在未来 6 年内购买剩余股份)。此外，我们的子公司也进行了补强收购以增强其竞争优势和盈利能力。

That’s the good news. But there’s another less pleasant reality: During 2008 I did some dumb things in investments. I made at least one major mistake of commission and several lesser ones that also hurt. I will tell you more about these later. Furthermore, I made some errors of omission, sucking my thumb when new facts came in that should have caused me to re-examine my thinking and promptly take action.

好消息到此为之。还有些不太让人高兴的事实：2008 年我做了一些愚蠢的投资。我至少犯了一个重大错误，还有多个小错误，但也造成了不良后果。稍后我会更详细解释。此外，我还犯了一些疏忽大意的错误，当新情况出现时，我本应重新审视自己的想法、然后迅速采取行动，但我却只知道咬着大拇指发愣。

Additionally, the market value of the bonds and stocks that we continue to hold suffered a significant decline along with the general market. This does not bother Charlie and me. Indeed, we enjoy such price declines if we have funds available to increase our positions. Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that “Price is what you pay; value is what you get.” Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.

另外，我们长期持有的债券及股票市值受到市场大跌的影响。这并不让我和查理恼怒。的确，当我们有足够的资金去增加我们仓位的时候，我们反而很享受这样的价格下跌。很久以前，格雷厄姆告诉我"价格是你所支付的，价值是你所得到的"。无论我们所谈论是袜子或者是股票，我总是喜欢在市场下跌时，购买足够多的货物。