巴菲特致股东的信（2011年）②企业内在价值

Intrinsic Business Value

企业内在价值

Charlie and I measure our performance by the rate of gain in Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic business value. If our gain over time outstrips the performance of the S&P 500, we have earned our paychecks. If it doesn’t, we are overpaid at any price.

查理和我衡量我们业绩的标准是，伯克希尔每股企业内在价值的增长率。如果随着时间的推移，我们的回报能够超过标普 500 指数的表现，那么我们才能对得起我们拿的薪水。如果我们没有做到，那么不管我们拿多少薪水都是过高了。

We have no way to pinpoint intrinsic value. But we do have a useful, though considerably understated, proxy for it: per-share book value. This yardstick is meaningless at most companies. At Berkshire, however, book value very roughly tracks business values. That’s because the amount by which Berkshire’s intrinsic value exceeds book value does not swing wildly from year to year, though it increases in most years. Over time, the divergence will likely become ever more substantial in absolute terms, remaining reasonably steady, however, on a percentage basis as both the numerator and denominator of the business-value/book-value equation increase.

我们无法精确确定内在价值。但是我们确实有一个可用(尽管有相当程度的低估)的替代指标：每股账面价值。对于大多数公司而言这个指标毫无意义。可是对于伯克希尔，账面价值能够大致地追踪企业内在价值的变化。这是因为伯克希尔的内在价值超越账面价值的金额并没有逐年剧烈波动，尽管在大多数年份超越的金额都在增加。随着时间的推移，两者的差额从绝对数值来看，可能会变得越来越大，但是随着内在价值/账面价值的分子分母的增加，其二者的比率将保持相对稳定。

We’ve regularly emphasized that our book-value performance is almost certain to outpace the S&P 500 in a bad year for the stock market and just as certainly will fall short in a strong up-year. The test is how we do over time. Last year’s annual report included a table laying out results for the 42 five-year periods since we took over at Berkshire in 1965 (i.e., 1965-69, 1966-70, etc.). All showed our book value beating the S&P, and our string held for 2007-11. It will almost certainly snap, though, if the S&P 500 should put together a five-year winning streak (which it may well be on its way to doing as I write this).

我们经常强调说，在股市表现糟糕的年份，我们的账面价值的表现几乎肯定会超越标普 500 指数，但在股市表现强劲的年份，我们的账面价值的表现也几乎肯定会落后于指数。真正考验我们的是其长期的表现如何。去年我在年报中列出了一张表，计算了自 1965 年我们接管伯克希尔以来 42 个 5 年为期的业绩表现(如 1965-69 年，1966-70 年等等)，所有这些记录表明，我们的账面价值表现都战胜了标普 500 指数，而且我们的连胜记录也持续保持到了最近的 2007-11 年的 5 年期。不过，如果标普 500 指数连续 5 年保持上涨的话，这个成功记录很可能将被打破(在我写下这篇文章时股市可能正在这样做呢)。

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I also included two tables last year that set forth the key quantitative ingredients that will help you estimate our per-share intrinsic value. I won’t repeat the full discussion here; you can find it reproduced on pages 99-100. To update the tables shown there, our per-share investments in 2011 increased 4% to $98,366, and our pre-tax earnings from businesses other than insurance and investments increased 18% to $6,990 per share.

去年我还列出了两张表格，罗列了那些将会帮助你估算伯克希尔每股内在价值的关键性的定量因素。在这里我就不再重复叙述了，你可以在年报后文中找到那些内容。表格中更新的数据是，2011 年我们的每股投资增长了4%达到 98366 美元，来自保险和投资业务之外的每股经营性税前利润增长了 18%达到了 6990 美元。

Charlie and I like to see gains in both areas, but our primary focus is on building operating earnings. Over time, the businesses we currently own should increase their aggregate earnings, and we hope also to purchase some large operations that will give us a further boost. We now have eight subsidiaries that would each be included in the Fortune 500 were they stand-alone companies. That leaves only 492 to go. My task is clear, and I’m on the prowl.

查理和我都希望能够在投资和经营两个方面都实现增长，但是我们关注的重点是提高经营性收益。长期而言，我们现在拥有业务的总收益将会进一步提高，我们也希望能收购一些大型企业，从而进一步推动我们业绩增长。我们现在有八家企业，如果它们做为独立的公司，每家都能进入财富 500 强。外面只有 492 家 500 强企业了。我的任务非常清楚，我正在搜寻猎物。