巴菲特致股东的信（2018年）①概述

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东：

Berkshire earned $4.0 billion in 2018 utilizing generally accepted accounting principles (commonly called “GAAP”). The components of that figure are $24.8 billion in operating earnings, a $3.0 billion non-cash loss from an impairment of intangible assets (arising almost entirely from our equity interest in Kraft Heinz), $2.8 billion in realized capital gains from the sale of investment securities and a $20.6 billion loss from a reduction in the amount of unrealized capital gains that existed in our investment holdings.

按照通用会计准则（GAAP），伯克希尔 (Berkshire) 2018年盈利40亿美元。这个数字的组成部分包括：248亿美元的经营收益；30亿美元的非现金无形资产减值损失（几乎全部来自我们对卡夫亨氏 (Kraft Heinz) 的持股）；28亿美元出售投资证券所实现的资本利得；以及因我们投资组合中未实现资本利得减少而带来的206亿美元亏损。

A new GAAP rule requires us to include that last item in earnings. As I emphasized in the 2017 annual report, neither Berkshire’s Vice Chairman, Charlie Munger, nor I believe that rule to be sensible. Rather, both of us have consistently thought that at Berkshire this mark-to-market change would produce what I described as “wild and capricious swings in our bottom line.”

GAAP的一项新规要求我们必须将最后一项计入当期收益。正如我在2017年年报中所强调的，无论是伯克希尔副董事长查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 还是我，都不认为这条规则是合理的。我们一直认为，在伯克希尔，这种按市值计价的变化将产生我所描述的"净收益剧烈而无常的波动"。

The accuracy of that prediction can be suggested by our quarterly results during 2018. In the first and fourth quarters, we reported GAAP losses of $1.1 billion and $25.4 billion respectively. In the second and third quarters, we reported profits of $12 billion and $18.5 billion. In complete contrast to these gyrations, the many businesses that Berkshire owns delivered consistent and satisfactory operating earnings in all quarters. For the year, those earnings exceeded their 2016 high of $17.6 billion by 41%.

这一预言的准确性从我们2018年的季度业绩中就能看出来。第一和第四季度，我们分别报告了11亿美元和254亿美元的GAAP亏损。第二和第三季度，我们分别报告了120亿美元和185亿美元的利润。与这些剧烈波动形成鲜明对比的是，伯克希尔旗下的众多业务在每一个季度都实现了持续且令人满意的经营收益。全年来看，这些经营收益比2016年176亿美元的高点增长了41%。

Wide swings in our quarterly GAAP earnings will inevitably continue. That’s because our huge equity portfolio – valued at nearly $173 billion at the end of 2018 – will often experience one-day price fluctuations of $2 billion or more, all of which the new rule says must be dropped immediately to our bottom line. Indeed, in the fourth quarter, a period of high volatility in stock prices, we experienced several days with a “profit” or “loss” of more than $4 billion.

我们季度GAAP收益的大幅波动将不可避免地持续下去。这是因为我们庞大的股票投资组合——截至2018年底市值接近1730亿美元——经常会经历单日20亿美元甚至更多的价格波动，而新规则要求这些波动必须立即计入我们的净收益。事实上，在股价剧烈波动的第四季度，我们有好几天都经历了单日"盈利"或"亏损"超过40亿美元的情况。

Our advice? Focus on operating earnings, paying little attention to gains or losses of any variety. My saying that in no way diminishes the importance of our investments to Berkshire. Over time, Charlie and I expect them to deliver substantial gains, albeit with highly irregular timing.

我们的建议呢？请关注经营收益，不要在意各种利得或亏损。我这么说丝毫没有削弱投资对伯克希尔的重要性。长远来看，查理和我预计我们的投资将带来可观的收益，尽管时机将高度不规律。

Long-time readers of our annual reports will have spotted the different way in which I opened this letter. For nearly three decades, the initial paragraph featured the percentage change in Berkshire’s per-share book value. It’s now time to abandon that practice.

长期阅读我们年报的读者会发现，这封信的开头和往年不同了。近三十年来，股东信的第一段一直是报告伯克希尔每股账面价值的百分比变化。现在是时候放弃这个做法了。

The fact is that the annual change in Berkshire’s book value – which makes its farewell appearance on page 2 – is a metric that has lost the relevance it once had. Three circumstances have made that so. First, Berkshire has gradually morphed from a company whose assets are concentrated in marketable stocks into one whose major value resides in operating businesses. Charlie and I expect that reshaping to continue in an irregular manner. Second, while our equity holdings are valued at market prices, accounting rules require our collection of operating companies to be included in book value at an amount far below their current value, a mismark that has grown in recent years. Third, it is likely that – over time – Berkshire will be a significant repurchaser of its shares, transactions that will take place at prices above book value but below our estimate of intrinsic value. The math of such purchases is simple: Each transaction makes per-share intrinsic value go up, while per-share book value goes down. That combination causes the book-value scorecard to become increasingly out of touch with economic reality.

事实是，伯克希尔账面价值的年度变化——它在第2页做了最后一次亮相——已经失去了曾经的意义。三个因素导致了这种变化。第一，伯克希尔已经逐步从一家资产集中于上市股票投资的公司，转变为一家主要价值蕴含在运营业务中的公司。查理和我预计这种转型将以不规律的方式继续下去。第二，虽然我们持有的股票是按市价计值的，但会计准则要求我们旗下的运营企业以远低于其当前价值的金额计入账面价值，这种偏差近年来越来越大。第三，随着时间推移，伯克希尔很可能将成为自身股票的重要回购方，而回购价格将高于账面价值但低于我们估计的内在价值。这种回购的数学原理很简单：每一笔交易都会使每股内在价值上升，而每股账面价值下降。两者结合的结果，是账面价值这张记分卡越来越脱离经济现实。

In future tabulations of our financial results, we expect to focus on Berkshire’s market price. Markets can be extremely capricious: Just look at the 54-year history laid out on page 2. Over time, however, Berkshire’s stock price will provide the best measure of business performance.

在未来的业绩表中，我们将重点关注伯克希尔的市场价格。市场可以非常反复无常——看看第2页列出的54年历史就知道了。但长期而言，伯克希尔的股价将提供衡量企业业绩的最佳标尺。

Before moving on, I want to give you some good news – really good news – that is not reflected in our financial statements. It concerns the management changes we made in early 2018, when Ajit Jain was put in charge of all insurance activities and Greg Abel was given authority over all other operations. These moves were overdue. Berkshire is now far better managed than when I alone was supervising operations. Ajit and Greg have rare talents, and Berkshire blood flows through their veins.

话题继续之前，我要告诉你们一个好消息——真正的好消息——它没有反映在我们的财务报表中。这关乎我们在2018年初进行的管理层变革：阿吉特·贾恩 (Ajit Jain) 受命执掌全部保险业务，格雷格·阿贝尔 (Greg Abel) 则获授权管理所有其他业务。这些调整早就该做了。现在的伯克希尔，比我独自监管运营时管理得好多了。阿吉特和格雷格都有罕见的才华，伯克希尔的血液流淌在他们的血管里。

Now let’s take a look at what you own.

好了，现在让我们来看看你们拥有的都是些什么。