巴菲特致股东的信（2019年）⑥股票投资

Investments

股票投资

Below we list our fifteen common stock investments that at yearend had the largest market value. We exclude our Kraft Heinz holding – 325,442,152 shares – because Berkshire is part of a control group and therefore must account for this investment on the “equity” method. On its balance sheet, Berkshire carries the Kraft Heinz holding at a GAAP figure of $13.8 billion, an amount that represents Berkshire’s share of the audited net worth of Kraft Heinz at December 31, 2019. Please note, though, that the market value of our shares on that date was only $10.5 billion.

下面列出了截至年末市值最大的15只普通股投资。我们不包括卡夫亨氏 (Kraft Heinz) 的持股——共325,442,152股——因为伯克希尔属于控股集团的一部分，必须按"权益法"核算这笔投资。在资产负债表上，伯克希尔按GAAP将卡夫亨氏持股记为138亿美元，代表截至2019年12月31日伯克希尔在卡夫亨氏经审计净资产中的份额。不过请注意，我们的持股在该日的市值仅为105亿美元。

Charlie and I do not view the $248 billion detailed above as a collection of stock market wagers – dalliances to be terminated because of downgrades by “the Street,” an earnings “miss,” expected Federal Reserve actions, possible political developments, forecasts by economists or whatever else might be the subject du jour.

查理和我并不把上面列出的2,480亿美元视为一堆股市赌注——不会因为华尔街的评级下调、收益"未达预期"、美联储可能采取的行动、可能出现的政治变局、经济学家的预测或任何其他一时热门的话题而终止持有。

What we see in our holdings, rather, is an assembly of companies that we partly own and that, on a weighted basis, are earning more than 20% on the net tangible equity capital required to run their businesses. These companies, also, earn their profits without employing excessive levels of debt.

相反，我们在持仓中看到的是一组我们部分拥有的公司，按加权计算，它们在运营所需的净有形股权资本上赚取着超过20%的回报。而且这些公司在创造利润的同时并没有过度举债。

Returns of that order by large, established and understandable businesses are remarkable under any circumstances. They are truly mind-blowing when compared to the returns that many investors have accepted on bonds over the last decade – 21⁄2% or even less on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, for example.

对于大型、成熟且容易理解的企业来说，这样的回报率在任何情况下都非同寻常。如果与过去十年间很多投资者所接受的债券收益率相比——比如30年期美国国债的2.5%甚至更低——这简直令人叹为观止。

Forecasting interest rates has never been our game, and Charlie and I have no idea what rates will average over the next year, or ten or thirty years. Our perhaps jaundiced view is that the pundits who opine on these subjects reveal, by that very behavior, far more about themselves than they reveal about the future.

预测利率从来不是我们的游戏，查理和我不知道未来一年、十年或三十年的平均利率会是多少。我们可能有些偏见地认为，那些对利率走势侃侃而谈的"专家"们，恰恰是通过这种行为，暴露了更多关于他们自己的信息，而非关于未来的信息。

What we can say is that if something close to current rates should prevail over the coming decades and if corporate tax rates also remain near the low level businesses now enjoy, it is almost certain that equities will over time perform far better than long-term, fixed-rate debt instruments.

我们能说的是：如果未来几十年的利率接近当前水平，而且公司税率也维持在目前企业所享受的低位附近，那么几乎可以肯定，随着时间的推移，股票的表现将远远好于长期固定利率债务工具。

That rosy prediction comes with a warning: Anything can happen to stock prices tomorrow. Occasionally, there will be major drops in the market, perhaps of 50% magnitude or even greater. But the combination of The American Tailwind, about which I wrote last year, and the compounding wonders described by Mr. Smith, will make equities the much better long-term choice for the individual who does not use borrowed money and who can control his or her emotions. Others? Beware!

这个乐观预测附带一个警告：明天的股价什么都可能发生。偶尔，市场会出现大幅暴跌，幅度可能达到50%甚至更多。但对于那些不用借来的钱炒股、并且能控制自己情绪的人来说，我在去年信中写过的"美国顺风"，加上史密斯先生描述的复利奇迹，将使股票成为远远更好的长期选择。其他人呢？小心了！