巴菲特致股东的信（2019年）⑦未来之路

The Road Ahead

未来之路

Three decades ago, my Midwestern friend, Joe Rosenfield, then in his 80s, received an irritating letter from his local newspaper. In blunt words, the paper asked for biographical data it planned to use in Joe’s obituary. Joe didn’t respond. So? A month later, he got a second letter from the paper, this one labeled “URGENT.”

30年前，我在中西部的朋友乔·罗森菲尔德 (Joe Rosenfield)——当时已经80多岁——收到了当地报纸寄来的一封令人恼火的信。信中直截了当地向乔索要一些准备用在他讣告里的生平资料。乔没有回信。然后呢？一个月后，他收到了那家报纸的第二封信，这次信封上还标着"加急"。

Charlie and I long ago entered the urgent zone. That’s not exactly great news for us. But Berkshire shareholders need not worry: Your company is 100% prepared for our departure.

查理和我早就进入了"加急"阶段。对我们来说这显然不是什么好消息。但伯克希尔的股东们不必担心：你们的公司已经为我们的离开做好了百分之百的准备。

The two of us base our optimism upon five factors. First, Berkshire’s assets are deployed in an extraordinary variety of wholly or partly-owned businesses that, averaged out, earn attractive returns on the capital they use. Second, Berkshire’s positioning of its “controlled” businesses within a single entity endows it with some important and enduring economic advantages. Third, Berkshire’s financial affairs will unfailingly be managed in a manner allowing the company to withstand external shocks of an extreme nature. Fourth, we possess skilled and devoted top managers for whom running Berkshire is far more than simply having a high-paying and/or prestigious job. Finally, Berkshire’s directors – your guardians – are constantly focused on both the welfare of owners and the nurturing of a culture that is rare among giant corporations. (The value of this culture is explored in Margin of Trust, a new book by Larry Cunningham and Stephanie Cuba that will be available at our annual meeting.)

我们的乐观基于五个因素。第一，伯克希尔的资产配置在种类极其丰富的全资或部分持有的企业之中，平均而言，这些企业在其运营所需的资本上取得了有吸引力的回报。第二，伯克希尔将旗下控股企业纳入单一实体的架构，赋予了它一些重要且持久的经济优势。第三，伯克希尔的财务管理将始终确保公司能够抵御极端性质的外部冲击。第四，我们拥有能干且忠诚的高层管理者，对他们来说，管理伯克希尔远不仅仅是一份高薪和/或体面的工作。最后，伯克希尔的董事们——你们的守护者——始终关注股东利益和培育一种在大公司中罕见的企业文化。（这种文化的价值在拉里·坎宁安 (Larry Cunningham) 和斯蒂芬妮·库巴 (Stephanie Cuba) 合著的新书《信任边际》(Margin of Trust) 中有所探讨，该书将在我们的年会上发售。）

Charlie and I have very pragmatic reasons for wanting to assure Berkshire’s prosperity in the years following our exit: The Mungers have Berkshire holdings that dwarf any of the family’s other investments, and I have a full 99% of my net worth lodged in Berkshire stock. I have never sold any shares and have no plans to do so. My only disposal of Berkshire shares, aside from charitable donations and minor personal gifts, took place in 1980, when I, along with other Berkshire stockholders who elected to participate, exchanged some of our Berkshire shares for the shares of an Illinois bank that Berkshire had purchased in 1969 and that, in 1980, needed to be offloaded because of changes in the bank holding company law.

查理和我有非常务实的理由想要确保伯克希尔在我们离去后继续繁荣：芒格家族持有的伯克希尔股票规模远超其家族的其他任何投资，而我个人净资产的99%都放在伯克希尔股票上。我从未卖出过伯克希尔的股票，也没有任何出售计划。除慈善捐赠和少量个人赠与外，我唯一一次处置伯克希尔股票是在1980年——当时我和其他选择参与的伯克希尔股东一起，将我们的部分伯克希尔股份换成了一家伊利诺伊州银行的股票。这家银行是伯克希尔1969年收购的，1980年因《银行控股公司法》的变化而必须剥离。

Today, my will specifically directs its executors – as well as the trustees who will succeed them in administering my estate after the will is closed – not to sell any Berkshire shares. My will also absolves both the executors and the trustees from liability for maintaining what obviously will be an extreme concentration of assets.

如今，我的遗嘱明确指示其执行人——以及在遗嘱执行完毕后接手管理我遗产的受托人——不要出售任何伯克希尔股票。我的遗嘱还免除了执行人和受托人因维持如此极端的资产集中度而可能承担的责任。

The will goes on to instruct the executors – and, in time, the trustees – to each year convert a portion of my A shares into B shares and then distribute the Bs to various foundations. Those foundations will be required to deploy their grants promptly. In all, I estimate that it will take 12 to 15 years for the entirety of the Berkshire shares I hold at my death to move into the market.

遗嘱接着指示执行人——以及后来的受托人——每年将我的一部分A股转换为B股，然后将B股分配给各个基金会。这些基金会将被要求迅速发放其获得的拨款。总的来说，我估计从我去世到我所持伯克希尔股票全部进入市场，大约需要12到15年。

Absent my will’s directive that all my Berkshire shares should be held until their scheduled distribution dates, the “safe” course for both my executors and trustees would be to sell the Berkshire shares under their temporary control and reinvest the proceeds in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities matching the scheduled dates for distributions. That strategy would leave the fiduciaries immune from both public criticism and the possibility of personal liability for failure to act in accordance with the “prudent man” standard.

如果没有我遗嘱中"所有伯克希尔股票应持有至预定分配日"的指示，执行人和受托人最"安全"的做法将是出售他们临时控制下的伯克希尔股票，然后将所得资金再投资于到期日与预定分配日匹配的美国国债。这种策略可以让受托人免受公众批评，也免除因未按"审慎人"标准行事而可能承担个人责任的风险。

I myself feel comfortable that Berkshire shares will provide a safe and rewarding investment during the disposal period. There is always a chance – unlikely, but not negligible – that events will prove me wrong. I believe, however, that there is a high probability that my directive will deliver substantially greater resources to society than would result from a conventional course of action.

我个人确信，在处置期间伯克希尔的股票将提供安全且有回报的投资。事情有可能证明我是错的——这种可能性不大，但也不可忽视。然而我相信，遵循我的指示，极有可能为社会带来远多于按常规做法所能提供的资源。

Key to my “Berkshire-only” instructions is my faith in the future judgment and fidelity of Berkshire directors. They will regularly be tested by Wall Streeters bearing fees. At many companies, these super-salesmen might win. I do not, however, expect that to happen at Berkshire.

我那"只持有伯克希尔"指示的关键，在于我对伯克希尔董事们未来判断力和忠诚度的信心。他们会不断受到华尔街推销费用的考验。在很多公司，这些"超级销售员"可能会得逞。但我预计伯克希尔不会出现这种情况。