巴菲特致股东的信（2023年）②经营成果：真实与虚幻

Operating Results, Fact and Fiction

经营成果：真实与虚幻

Let’s begin with the numbers. The official annual report begins on K-1 and extends for 124 pages. It is filled with a vast amount of information – some important, some trivial.

让我们从数字说起。官方年报从 K-1 页开始，长达 124 页，里面塞满了大量信息——有些重要，有些无关紧要。

Among its disclosures many owners, along with financial reporters, will focus on page K-72. There, they will find the proverbial “bottom line” labeled “Net earnings (loss).” The numbers read $90 billion for 2021, ($23 billion) for 2022 and $96 billion for 2023. What in the world is going on?

在这些披露中，很多股东和财经记者会盯着 K-72 页。在那里，他们能找到所谓的"底线"——标着"净利润（亏损）"的那个数字。2021 年 900 亿美元，2022 年负 230 亿美元，2023 年 960 亿美元。这到底是怎么回事？

You seek guidance and are told that the procedures for calculating these “earnings” are promulgated by a sober and credentialed Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”), mandated by a dedicated and hard-working Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and audited by the world-class professionals at Deloitte & Touche (“D&T”). On page K-67, D&T pulls no punches: “In our opinion, the financial statements . . . . . present fairly, in all material respects (italics mine), the financial position of the Company . . . . . and the results of its operations . . . . . for each of the three years in the period ended December 31, 2023 . . . . .”

你想弄明白，然后被告知：计算这些"利润"的程序是由严肃而有资质的美国财务会计准则委员会（"FASB"）制定的，经由尽职尽责的美国证券交易委员会（"SEC"）授权，并由德勤会计师事务所（"D&T"）的世界级专业人士审计。在 K-67 页，德勤毫不含糊地说："我们认为，财务报表……在所有重大方面（斜体是我加的）公允地反映了公司……截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日三年期间每年的财务状况……和经营成果……"

So sanctified, this worse-than-useless “net income” figure quickly gets transmitted throughout the world via the internet and media. All parties believe they have done their job – and, legally, they have.

经过如此神圣的背书，这个比没用还糟糕的"净利润"数字就通过互联网和媒体迅速传遍了全世界。所有参与方都觉得自己尽到了职责——从法律角度来说，他们确实尽到了。

We, however, are left uncomfortable. At Berkshire, our view is that “earnings” should be a sensible concept that Bertie will find somewhat useful – but only as a starting point – in evaluating a business. Accordingly, Berkshire also reports to Bertie and you what we call “operating earnings.” Here is the story they tell: $27.6 billion for 2021; $30.9 billion for 2022 and $37.4 billion for 2023.

然而，我们却浑身不自在。在伯克希尔，我们认为"利润"应该是一个合理的概念，让伯蒂觉得多少有点用——但也仅仅是个起点——来评估一家企业。因此，伯克希尔还会向伯蒂和你们报告我们所说的"经营收益"。它们讲述的故事是这样的：2021 年 276 亿美元；2022 年 309 亿美元；2023 年 374 亿美元。

The primary difference between the mandated figures and the ones Berkshire prefers is that we exclude unrealized capital gains or losses that at times can exceed $5 billion a day. Ironically, our preference was pretty much the rule until 2018, when the “improvement” was mandated. Galileo’s experience, several centuries ago, should have taught us not to mess with mandates from on high. But, at Berkshire, we can be stubborn.

强制披露的数字和伯克希尔青睐的数字之间，主要区别在于我们剔除了未实现资本利得或损失——这个数字有时候一天的波动就能超过 50 亿美元。讽刺的是，我们偏好的算法在 2018 年那次"改进"之前，差不多就是官方规则。几个世纪前伽利略的遭遇本该教会我们不要跟上面下达的旨意较劲。但在伯克希尔，我们可以很倔。

Make no mistake about the significance of capital gains: I expect them to be a very important component of Berkshire’s value accretion during the decades ahead. Why else would we commit huge dollar amounts of your money (and Bertie’s) to marketable equities just as I have been doing with my own funds throughout my investing lifetime?

别误解了资本利得的重要性：我预计在未来几十年里，它将是伯克希尔价值增长中非常重要的组成部分。不然的话，我们为什么要把你们（包括伯蒂）的巨额资金投入股票市场呢——就像我这辈子一直用自己的钱做的那样？

I can’t remember a period since March 11, 1942 – the date of my first stock purchase – that I have not had a majority of my net worth in equities, U.S.-based equities. And so far, so good. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 100 on that fateful day in 1942 when I “pulled the trigger.” I was down about $5 by the time school was out. Soon, things turned around and now that index hovers around 38,000. America has been a terrific country for investors. All they have needed to do is sit quietly, listening to no one.

自 1942 年 3 月 11 日——我第一次买股票的日子——以来，我想不起有哪个时期自己没有把大部分身家放在股票上，而且是美国股票。到目前为止，一切都还不错。1942 年那个意义非凡的日子，当我"扣动扳机"时，道琼斯工业平均指数跌破了 100 点。等放学的时候，我已经亏了大概 5 块钱。不久，形势逆转了，现在这个指数已经在 38000 点附近徘徊。对投资者来说，美国是个了不起的国家。他们需要做的只是安静地坐着，谁的话都别听。

It is more than silly, however, to make judgments about Berkshire’s investment value based on “earnings” that incorporate the capricious day-by-day and, yes, even year-by-year movements of the stock market. As Ben Graham taught me, “In the short run the market acts as a voting machine; in the long run it becomes a weighing machine.”

然而，根据包含了股市每天甚至每年反复无常波动的"利润"来判断伯克希尔的投资价值，那就不是一般的愚蠢了。正如本·格雷厄姆教我的那样："短期来看，市场是一台投票机；长期来看，它是一台称重机。"