巴菲特致合伙人的信（1960年）①整体情况②业绩

The General Stock Market in 1960:

A year ago, I commented on the somewhat faulty picture presented in 1959 by the Dow-Jones Industrial Average which had advanced from 583 to 679, or 16.4%. Although practically all investment companies showed gains for that year, less than 10% of them were able to match or better the record of the Industrial Average. The Dow-Jones Utility Average had a small decline and the Railroad Average recorded a substantial one.

1960年股市的整体情况：

1959年，道指从583点到679点，上涨16.4%，我说指数有些失真。当年，几乎所有投资公司都赚钱了，但是其中只有不到10%赶上或超过了道指涨幅。另外，道琼斯公用事业指数略微下跌，道琼斯铁路指数大幅下跌。

In 1960, the picture was reversed. The Industrial Average declined from 679 to 616, or 9.3%. Adding back the dividends which would have been received through ownership of the Average still left it with an overall loss of 6.3%. On the other hand, the Utility Average showed a good gain and, while all the results are not now available, my guess is that about 90% of all investment companies outperformed the Industrial Average. The majority of investment companies appear to have ended the year with overall results in the range of plus or minus 5%. On the New York Stock Exchange, 653 common stocks registered losses for the year while 404 showed gains.

1960年，情况反了过来。道指从679点到616点，下跌了9.3%。加上股息，持有指数的整体亏损仍然有6.3%。道琼斯公用事业指数却录得较大涨幅。现在还有的投资公司没公布业绩，我估计90%左右的投资公司都跑赢了道指。大部分投资公司去年的收益率似乎都在5%上下。在纽约股票交易所上市的股票中，653只下跌，404只上涨。

Results in 1960:

My continual objective in managing partnership funds is to achieve a long-term performance record superior to that of the Industrial Average. I believe this Average, over a period of years, will more or less parallel the results of leading investment companies. Unless we do achieve this superior performance there is no reason for existence of the partnerships.

1960年的业绩：

我管理合伙人资金的目标始终是长期跑赢道指。我认为，从长期来看，道指的表现基本上就是大型投资公司的业绩表现。除非我们跑赢道指，否则我们的合伙公司没有存在的意义。

However, I have pointed out that any superior record which we might accomplish should not be expected to be evidenced by a relatively constant advantage in performance compared to the Average. Rather it is likely that if such an advantage is achieved, it will be through better-than-average performance in stable or declining markets and average, or perhaps even poorer- than-average performance in rising markets.

我也说了，不要以为我们追求长期跑赢道指的目标，就代表我们要每年都领先指数。我们长期跑赢指数的方法是，在平盘或下跌的行情中领先指数，在上涨行情中跟上甚至落后于指数表现。

I would consider a year in which we declined 15% and the Average 30% to be much superior to a year when both we and the Average advanced 20%. Over a period of time there are going to be good and bad years; there is nothing to be gained by getting enthused or depressed about the sequence in which they occur. The important thing is to be beating par; a four on a par three hole is not as good as a five on a par five hole and it is unrealistic to assume we are not going to have our share of both par three's and par five's.

与我们和指数都上涨20%的年份相比，我认为，在指数下跌30%而我们下跌15%的年份，我们的表现更出色。长期来看，一定会有表现好的年份，也会有表现差的年份。在这个长期过程中，因为某一年的表现好坏而兴高采烈或垂头丧气完全是做无用功。就像打高尔夫球，重要的是总成绩低于标准杆。高尔夫球有三杆洞，也有五杆洞。五杆洞打出五杆，比三杆洞打出四杆好。要是以为无论几杆的洞，我们都能低于标准杆，那就不现实了。

The above dose of philosophy is being dispensed since we have a number of new partners this year and I want to make sure they understand my objectives, my measure of attainment of these objectives, and some of my known limitations.

因为我们今年新增了不少合伙人，所以我又用了些篇幅讲理念。我希望让新合伙人了解我的目标、我衡量是否实现目标的方法，以及什么是我能做到的，什么是我做不到的。

With this background it is not unexpected that 1960 was a better-than-average year for us. As contrasted with an overall loss of 6.3% for the Industrial Average, we had a 22.8% gain for the seven partnerships operating throughout the year. Our results for the four complete years of partnership operation after expenses but before interest to limited partners or allocation to the general partner are:

说完了这些，大家应该知道了，1960年是我们战胜指数的一年。去年，道指整体亏损6.3%，我管理的七个合伙人账户取得了22.8%的收益。在扣除经营费用之后，不算支付给有限合伙人的利息和普通合伙人的分成，在过去四年中，合伙公司的业绩如下：

It should be emphasized again that these are the net results to the partnership; the net results to the limited partners would depend on the partnership agreement that they had selected.

需要再强调一下，这是合伙公司的净收益，有限合伙人的净收益取决于他们各自选择的合伙协议。

The overall gain or loss is computed on a market to market basis. After allowing for any money added or withdrawn, such a method gives results based upon what would have been realized upon liquidation of the partnership at the beginning, of the year and what would have been realized upon liquidation at year end and is different, of course, from our tax results, which value securities at cost and realize gains or losses only when securities are actually sold.

整体收益或亏损按照市值计算。把资金进出也计算在内，这个方法在计以年初和年末清算价值为计算依据。它的计算结果和用于税收申报的数据不同，因为报税时证券按成本价计算，并且证券的收益或亏损只有在售出时才计算。

On a compounded basis, the cumulative results have been:

按复利计算，混合起来四年累计业绩如下：

Although four years is entirely too short a period from which to make deductions, what evidence there is points toward confirming the proposition that our results should be relatively better in moderately declining or static markets. To the extent that this is true, it indicates that our portfolio may be more conservatively, although decidedly less conventionally, invested than if we owned "blue-chip" securities. During a strongly rising market for the latter, we might have real difficulty in matching their performance.

四年时间实在太短，不足以用于判断我们的长期业绩，但是从我们这四年的表现可以看出，我们确实能做到在温和下跌或平盘的市场中跑赢指数。我们能做到这一点，是因为我们投资的股票绝对和大多数人不一样，与持有蓝筹股的人相比，我们的投资组合更保守。在蓝筹股强劲上涨时，我们可能很难追上它们的涨幅。