巴菲特致合伙人的信（1961年）④登普斯特风车制造公司

Dempster Mill Manufacturing Company

We are presently involved in the control of Dempster Mill Manufacturing Company of Beatrice, Nebraska. Our first stock was purchased as a generally undervalued security five years ago. A block later became available, and I went on the Board about four years ago. In August 1961, we obtained majority control, which is indicative of the fact that many of our operations are not exactly of the "overnight" variety.

登普斯特风车制造公司(Dempster Mill Manufacturing Company)

我们目前拥有登普斯特风车制造公司的控股权，它位于内布拉斯加州比阿特丽斯。我们最开始是五年前把这家公司作为低估类买入，后来买到一大笔股份，四年前，我进入了董事会。1961年8月，我们取得了绝对控股权。从这笔投资就可以看出来，我们的很多投资确实都不是一蹴而就的。

Presently we own 70% of the stock of Dempster with another 10% held by a few associates. With only 150 or so other stockholders, a market on the stock is virtually non-existent, and in any case, would have no meaning for a controlling block. Our own actions in such a market could drastically affect the quoted price.

目前，我们拥有登普斯特70%的股份，一些人联合持有10%。剩余股东人数只有150名左右，这只股票几乎没什么成交量，这个对控股股东来说也没任何意义。在这种情况中，我们的举动就可以令股价发生巨大变化。

Therefore, it is necessary for me to estimate the value at yearend of our controlling interest. This is of particular importance since, in effect, new partners are buying in based upon this price, and old partners are selling a portion of their interest based upon the same price. The estimated value should not be what we hope it would be worth, or what it might be worth to an eager buyer, etc., but what I would estimate our interest would bring if sold under current conditions in a reasonably short period of time. Our efforts will be devoted toward increasing this value, and we feel there are decent prospects of doing this.

因此，我很有必要估算我们的控股权益在年末的价值。无论是新合伙人买入，还是老合伙人卖出，他们的权益变动都以这个价格为依据，所以我的估算很重要。估算的价值不应是我们认为它将来会值多少钱，也不应是很想收购它的人愿意出多少钱，而应该是在较短时间内按照当前情况出售大概能卖多少钱。我们将致力于提升这家公司的价值，我们看好它价值提升的前景。

Dempster is a manufacturer of farm implements and water systems with sales in 1961 of about $9 million. Operations have produced only nominal profits in relation to invested capital during recent years. This reflected a poor management situation, along with a fairly tough industry situation. Presently, consolidated net worth(book value) is about $4.5 million, or $75 per share, consolidated working capital about $50 per share, and at yearend we valued our interest at $35 per share. While I claim no oracular vision in a matter such as this, I feel this is a fair valuation to both new and old partners. Certainly, if even moderate earning power can be restored, a higher valuation will be justified, and even if it cannot, Dempster should work out at a higher figure. Our controlling interest was acquired at an average price of about $28, and this holding currently represents 21% of partnership net assets based on the $35 value.

登普斯特生产农具和供水系统，1961年的销售额是900万美元左右。近年来，与投入的资本相比，经营利润微不足道。这一方面是因为管理不力，另一方面是因为行业困难。目前，该公司的合并净资产（账面价值）是450万美元左右，相当于每股75美元，合并营运资金是每股50美元左右，我们估算我们的权益在年末价值每股35美元。我不敢说我的估值准确无误，但是我认为对新老合伙人而言，这是一个公允估值。只要盈利能力恢复到中等水平，这家公司的价值就能有所提升；就算盈利能力恢复不了，我们将来也能从登普斯特实现更高的价值。我们买入控股权的平均成本价是28美元左右，按35美元的价值计算，这只股票目前占合伙基金净值的21%。

Of course, this section of our portfolio is not going to be worth more money merely because General Motors, U.S. Steel, etc., sell higher. In a raging bull market, operations in control situations will seem like a very difficult way to make money, compared to just buying the general market. However, I am more conscious of the dangers presented at current market levels than the opportunities. Control situations, along with work-outs, provide a means of insulating a portion of our portfolio from these dangers.

我们的这部分投资，不可能只是因为通用汽车(General Motors)、美国钢铁(U.S.Steel)涨了，也跟着涨。在火热的大牛市中，与买入大盘股相比，控制类投资似乎很难赚钱。但是，在当前的市场点位上，我看到的更多是风险，而不是机会。控制类和套利类可以保证我们的投资组合中有一部分是与这些风险绝缘的。