巴菲特致合伙人的信（1963年）④投资方法

Our Method of Operation

At this point I always develop literary schizophrenia. On the one hand, I know that we have in the audience a number of partners to whom details of our business are interesting. We also have a number to whom this whole thing is Greek and who undoubtedly wish I would quit writing and get back to work.

我们的投资方法

每次写到这部分，我总是左右为难。一方面，我知道有些合伙人对我们投资的细节很感兴趣。另一方面，对很多合伙人来说，这些东西就像天书，他们肯定觉得我最好别写了，还不如赶快工作去。

To placate both camps, I am just going to sketch briefly our three categories at this point and those who are interested in getting their doctorate can refer to the appendix for extended treatment of examples.

为了把所有合伙人都照顾到，我决定只在这部分简单讲讲我们的三类投资，希望研读博士学位的合伙人可以在附录中阅读详细案例。

Our three investment categories are not differentiated by their expected profitability over an extended period of time. We are hopeful that they will each, over a ten or fifteen year period, produce something like the ten percentage point margin over the Dow that is our goal. However, in a given year they will have violently different behavior characteristics, depending primarily on the type of year it turns out to be for the stock market generally. Briefly this is how they shape up:

我们这三类投资的分类标准不是它们的长期投资收益有所不同。在10或15年时间里，我们觉得每一类都能实现我们的目标，跑赢道指10个百分点。但是，具体到某一年，股市行情变动很剧烈，这三类投资的表现也有巨大差别。下面简单介绍一下这三类投资：

“Generals” - A category of generally undervalued stocks, determined primarily by quantitative standards, but with considerable attention also paid to the qualitative factor. There is often little or nothing to indicate immediate market improvement. The issues lack glamour or market sponsorship. Their main qualification is a bargain price; that is, an overall valuation on the enterprise substantially below what careful analysis indicates its value to a private owner to be. Again let me emphasize that while the quantitative comes first and is essential, the qualitative is important. We like good management - we like a decent industry - we like a certain amount of “ferment” in a previously dormant management or stockholder group. But we demand value. The general group behaves very much in sympathy with the Dow and will turn in a big minus result during a year of substantial decline by the Dow. Contrarywise, it should be the star performer in a strongly advancing market. Over the years we expect it, of course, to achieve a satisfactory margin over the Dow.

低估类(Generals)——这类投资是低估的股票，我们主要通过定量分析判断是否低估，但是也非常重视定性分析。一般来说，低估类的投资，几乎看不出来或根本不知道短期内怎么能上涨。低估的股票不光鲜，市场不喜欢。它们唯一的好处就是价格低廉，经过审慎分析可以看出，公司的市值远远低于产业资本所能给予的估值。我再强调一下，虽说定量是第一位的、是根本，定性也很重要。我们喜欢优秀的管理层，我们喜欢好行业，我们希望有一定的“催化剂”刺激不作为的管理层或股东，但是我们要买得值。低估类的表现和道指有很强的同步性，道指大幅下跌时，低估类也会跟着大跌。反之亦然，在市场强劲上涨时，低估类的表现最抢眼。我们认为，长期来看，低估类能实现我们跑赢道指的目标。

“Workouts” - These are the securities with a timetable. They arise from corporate activity - sell-outs, mergers, reorganizations, spin-offs, etc. In this category we are not talking about rumors or "inside information" pertaining to such developments, but to publicly announced activities of this sort. We wait until we can read it in the paper. The risk pertains not primarily to general market behavior (although that is sometimes tied in to a degree), but instead to something upsetting the applecart so that the expected development does not materialize. Such killjoys could include anti-trust or other negative government action, stockholder disapproval, withholding of tax rulings, etc. The gross profits in many workouts appear quite small. A friend refers to this as getting the last nickel after the other fellow has made the first ninety-five cents. However, the predictability coupled with a short holding period produces quite decent annual rates of return. This category produces more steady absolute profits from year to year than generals do. In years of market decline, it piles up a big edge for us; during bull markets, it is a drag on performance. On a long term basis, I expect it to achieve the same sort of margin over the Dow attained by generals.

套利类(Workouts)——套利类投资有时间表可循。套利投资机会出现在出售、并购、重组、分拆等公司活动中。我们做套利投资不听传闻或“内幕消息”，只看公司的公告。在白纸黑字上读到了，我们才会出手。套利类投资有时也受大盘影响，但主要风险不是大盘涨跌，而是中途出现意外，预期的进展没实现。常见的意外包括反垄断等政府干预、股东否决、税收政策限制等。许多套利类投资的毛利润看起来很低。一位朋友说，套利类投资是在别人已经赚了9角5分后，再去赚最后的几分钱。但是，套利投资的确定性高、持有时间短，年化收益率是相当不错的。套利类投资每年贡献的绝对利润比低估类稳定。在市场下跌时，套利类投资积少成多，能给我们带来很大的领先优势；在牛市中，此类投资会拖累我们的业绩。从长期来看，我认为套利类能和低估类一样跑赢道指。

“Controls” - These are rarities, but when they occur they are likely to be of significant size. Unless we start off with the purchase of a sizable block or stock, controls develop from the general category. They result from situations where a cheap security does nothing price-wise for such an extended period of time that we are able to buy a significant percentage of the company's stock. At that point we are probably in a position to assume some degree of, or perhaps complete, control of the company's activities; whether we become active or remain relatively passive at this point depends upon our assessment of the company’s future and the management's capabilities. The general we have been buying the most aggressively in recent months possesses excellent management following policies that appear to make very good sense to us. If our continued buying puts us in a controlling position at some point in the future, we will probably remain very passive regarding the operation or this business.

控制类(Controls)——我们的控制类投资比较少见，但这类投资只要做了，就是大规模的。控制类有的是一开始就通过大宗交易买入，有的是从低估类发展而来的。有的低估类股票，价格在低位徘徊的时间很长，我们能买到很多，实现了部分或完全控股，有能力对公司施加影响，投资就从低估类转到了控制类。这时候，我们根据对公司前景以及管理层能力的评估，决定是采取主动，还是保持相对被动。最近几个月，我们在大量买入一只低估的股票，这家公司的管理层很优秀，公司的策略也很合理。我们会继续买入，如果将来实现了控股，可能会保持非常被动的状态，不会干预公司的经营。

We do not want to get active merely for the sake of being active. Everything else being equal I would much rather let others do the work. However, when an active role is necessary to optimize the employment of capital you can be sure we will not be standing in the wings.

我们不愿为了主动而主动。在其他条件一样的情况下，我更愿意放手让别人做。不过，大家可以放心，如果必须采取主动，才能让资本得到合理运用，我们不会袖手旁观。

Active or passive, in a control situation there should be a built-in profit. The sine qua non of this operation is an attractive purchase price. Once control is achieved, the value of our investment is determined by the value of the enterprise, not the oftentimes irrationalities of the marketplace.

不管主动还是被动，投资控制类必须做到，投资时就把钱赚到。控制类投资的必要条件是物美价廉。取得控股权后，我们的投资价值几何，就不再取决于经常失去理智的市场报价，而是企业本身的价值。

Our willingness and financial ability to assume a controlling position gives us two-way stretch on many purchases in our group of generals. If the market changes its opinion for the better, the security will advance in price. If it doesn't, we will continue to acquire stock until we can look to the business itself rather than the market for vindication of our judgment.

我们有意愿、有财力实现控股，这样我们低估类中的许多股票可以进退有余。如果市场转而看好，股价会随之上涨。如果市场仍然看淡，我们可以继续买入，最后公司是我们的了，不必再听市场对我们的评判。

Investment results in the control category have to be measured on the basis of at least several years. Proper buying takes time. If needed, strengthening management, re-directing the utilization of capital, perhaps effecting a satisfactory sale or merger, etc., are also all factors that make this a business to be measured in years rather than months. For this reason, in controls, we are looking for wide margins of profit-if it looks at all close, we pass.

衡量控制类的投资收益，至少要看几年时间。按部就班地买入需要时间。另外，可能还要改善管理层、重新配置资本、寻求出售或并购等，控制类中的这些工作都需要时间，所以此类投资不能看几个月，要看几年。因为投入时间长，在控制类投资中，我们要求获利空间一定要大。如果赚不了多少，我们就不做。

Controls in the buying stage move largely in sympathy with the Dow. In the later stages their behavior is geared more to that of workouts.

在买入阶段，控制类的表现和道指基本趋同。在末期阶段，控制类的表现和套利类更相似。

As I have mentioned in the past, the division of our portfolio among the three categories is largely determined by the accident or availability. Therefore, in a minus year for the Dow, whether we are primarily in generals or workouts is largely a matter of luck, but it will have a great deal to do with our performance relative to the Dow. This is one or many reasons why a single year's performance is of minor importance and, good or bad, should never be taken too seriously.

我说过，在我们的投资组合中，这三类投资的分配主要是见机行事，视投资机会而定。某一年道指下跌时，我们配置的主要是低估类还是套利类有很大的偶然性，但是会对我们与道指的相对业绩产生很大影响。所以说，单独一年的业绩不重要，无论好坏，都别看得太重。

If there is any trend as our assets grow, I would expect it to be toward controls which heretofore have been our smallest category. I may be wrong in this expectation - a great deal depends, of course, on the future behavior of the market on which your guess is as good as mine (I have none). At this writing, we have a majority of our capital in generals, workouts rank second, and controls are third.

要说在我们的资产增长过程中有什么趋势的话，我觉得是控制类投资会有所增加。目前，控制类是三类投资中占比最低的。我说的未必对，到底怎么样，当然还得看将来市场表现如何。至于将来市场如何，你不知道，我也不知道，我也不预测。在写这封信的时候，我们的资金分配情况是，低估类占比最大，套利类第二，控制类第三。