巴菲特致合伙人的信（1968年半年度）

July 11th, 1968

1968年7月11日

First Half Performance

During the first half of 1968, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average declined fractionally from 905 to 898. Ownership of the Dow would also have produced dividends of about $15 during the half, resulting in an overall gain of 0.9% for that Average. The Dow, once again, was an anemic competitor for most investment managers, although it was not surpassed by anything like the margins of 1967.

上半年业绩

1968年上半年，道指从905点略微下跌到898点。上半年持有道指可获得15美元的股息，在此期间投资道指的整体收益率为0.9%。对于大多数基金经理而言，虽然他们没像1967年领先道指那么多，但今年上半年，道指仍然是一个比较弱的对手。 

Our own performance was unusually good during the first half, with an overall gain of 16% excluding any change in valuation for controlled companies (which represented slightly over one-third of net assets at the beginning of the year). However, any release of adrenalin is unwarranted. Our marketable security investments are heavily concentrated in a few situations, making relative performance potentially more volatile than in widely diversified investment vehicles. Our long term performance goals are as stated in the revised "Ground Rules" and I will be quite happy if we achieve those limited objectives over a period of years. The following table summarizes performance to date on the usual basis:

上半年，我们的业绩好得出乎意料。在控股公司估值保持不变的情况下（今年年初，在净资产中，控股类的占比是三分之一多一点），我们的总收益是16%。这个业绩没什么值得激动的。我们投资的有价证券是重仓集中投资的，只投资了几只，与广泛分散的投资方法相比，我们的相对业绩更容易出现较大的波动。我们的长期业绩目标在修改的“基本原则”中写的很清楚，目标定得不高，但是从长期看，如果真能做到，我就很知足了。按照惯例，下表汇总了我们上半年的业绩： 

(1)Based on yearly changes in the value of the Dow plus dividends that would have been received through ownership of the Dow during that year. The table includes all complete years of partnership activity.

(2)For 1957-61 consists of combined results of all predecessor limited partnerships operating throughout the entire year after all expenses but before distributions to partners or allocations to the general partner.

(3)For 1957-61 computed on the basis of the preceding column of partnership results allowing for allocation to the general partner based upon the present partnership agreement, but before monthly withdrawals by limited partners.

(1)根据道指年度涨跌计算，其中包含股息。表格中为合伙基金整年运作的年份。

(2)1957-61年的数据是之前全年管理的所有有限合伙人账户的综合业绩，其中扣除了经营费用，未计算有限合伙人利息和普通合伙人分成。

(3)1957-61年的数据按前一列合伙基金收益率计算得出，按照当前合伙协议，扣除了普通合伙人分成。

Although we revise valuations of our controlled companies only at yearend, it presently appears that our share of their 1968 earnings will be something over $3 million. Those with primary responsibility for their operations, Ken Chace at Berkshire Hathaway, Louis Kohn at Hochschild Kohn, Jack Ringwalt at National Indemnity and Ben Rosner at Associated Cotton Shops, continue to meld effort and ability into results.

我们只在年末对控股公司进行重新估值，根据现在的情况来看，1968年归属于我们的盈利应该是300多万美元。负责经营控股公司的各位经理人分别是：伯克希尔哈撒韦的肯·切斯(Ken Chace)、霍赫希尔德科恩公司的路易斯·科恩(Louis Kohn)、国民赔偿公司(National Indemnity)的杰克·林沃特(Jack Ringwalt)以及联合棉布商店(Associated Cotton Shops)的本·罗斯纳(Ben Rosner)，他们既有能力，又努力，一如既往地为我们带来出色业绩。 

This year, Diversified Retailing Company (owner of Hochschild Kohn and Associated Cotton Shops) issued its first published annual report. This was occasioned by the public sale of debentures to approximately 1,000 investors last December. Thus, DRC is in the rather unusual position of being a public company from a creditors' viewpoint, but a private one (there are three stockholders -BPL owns 80%) for ownership purposes. I am enclosing the DRC report with this letter (except where duplicates go to one house hold) and plan to continue to send them along with future mid-year letters.

今年，多元零售公司(Diversified Retailing Company)（霍赫希尔德科恩公司(Hochschild Kohn)和联合棉布商店(Associated Cotton Shops)的母公司）第一次公开发布了年报。这是因为去年12月份，多元零售公司向大约1000位投资人公开发售了公司债券。现在多元零售公司的情况有些特殊：从债权人的角度来看，它是一个公众公司；从控股股东角度来看，它是一个私营公司（公司有三个股东，巴菲特合伙基金持股80%）。随信附上多元零售公司的年报，在今后每年的中期信件中，都会同时把多元零售的年报寄给大家。 

As I have mentioned before, we cannot make the same sort of money out of permanent ownership of controlled businesses that can be made from buying and reselling such businesses, or from skilled investment in marketable securities. Nevertheless, they offer a pleasant long term form of activity (when conducted in conjunction with high grade, able people) at satisfactory rates of return.

我在之前的信中说了，永久持有控股公司股份也赚钱，但不如来回买卖股权或娴熟地投资有价证券赚钱。尽管如此，如果拥有能力出众的一流经营者，并且回报率令人满意，持有控股公司股份是一种令人愉悦的长期投资。 

Investment Companies

On the following page is the form sheet on the usual investment companies: 

基金公司

以下是与基金公司业绩的对比：

(1) Computed from changes in asset value plus any distributions to holders of record during year.
(2) From 1968 Moody's Bank & Finance Manual for 1957 -1967. Estimated for first half of 1968.

Due to a sluggish performance by the Dow in the last few years, the four big funds now have, on average, about a one-half point per annum advantage over the Dow for the full period.

(1)计算包括资产价值变化以及当年持有人获得的分红。
(2)来源：1968 Moody's Bank&Finance Manual for 1957-1967。1968年上半年数据为估算值。

由于过去几年道指表现疲弱，到目前为止，四只最大的基金的平均年化收益率领先道指0.5个百分点左右。

The Present Environment

I make no effort to predict the course of general business or the stock market. Period. However, currently there are practices snowballing in the security markets and business world which, while devoid of short term predictive value, bother me as to possible long term consequences.

当前的环境

我不做预测股市涨跌或经济波动的事，不解释。对于现在的情况，我很担心。当前的股市和商界中有一些行为愈演愈烈，虽然短期内不知道会怎样，但长期内很可能带来恶果。 

I know that some of you are not particularly interested (and shouldn't be) in what is taking place on the financial stage. For those who are, I am enclosing a reprint of an unusually clear and simple article which lays bare just what is occurring on a mushrooming scale. Spectacular amounts of money are being made by those participating (whether as originators, top employees. professional advisors, investment bankers, stock speculators, etc… ) in the chain-letter type stock-promotion vogue. The game is being played by the gullible, the self-hypnotized, and the cynical. To create the proper illusions, it frequently requires accounting distortions (one particularly progressive entrepreneur told me he believed in "bold, imaginative accounting"), tricks of capitalization and camouflage of the true nature of the operating businesses involved. The end product is popular, respectable and immensely profitable (I'll let the philosophers figure in which order those adjectives should be placed).

有的合伙人对金融领域的事件不太感兴趣（也不必感兴趣）。有的合伙人则比较关注金融领域。我随本信附上了一篇文章，这篇文章有真知灼见，写的简单明了，对当前正在肆意蔓延的现象进行了深刻揭露。如今股票炒作风气盛行，如同连锁信恶作剧一般（译注：通过不断收购，虚增每股利润）。无论是发起者、高层员工、专业顾问、投资银行还是股票投机者，只要参与其中的，都赚的盆满钵满。去玩这个游戏的都是容易上当、掩耳盗铃、见钱眼开的人。为了制造假象，账目经常被动手脚（有一位想法很潮的企业家，他对我说，他觉得做账就得大胆、有想象力），资本欺诈手段层出不穷，企业的本来面目被重重伪装所掩盖。最终制造出来的产物很流行、很光鲜、很赚钱（流行、光鲜、赚钱，这几个词的先后顺序该怎么排列，留给哲学家思考吧。） 

Quite candidly, our own performance has been substantially improved on an indirect basis because of the fallout from such activities. To create an ever widening circle of chain letters requires increasing amounts of corporate raw material and this has caused many intrinsically cheap (and not so cheap) stocks to come to life. When we have been the owners of such stocks, we have reaped market rewards much more promptly than might otherwise have been the case. The appetite for such companies, however, tends to substantially diminish the number of fundamentally attractive investments which remain.

坦白的说，此类行为对我们产生了间接影响，我们的业绩被极大地抬高了。连锁信的规模要不断增加，需要更多的公司做原料，因此很多本来很便宜和不太便宜的股票就活跃起来了。如果我们正好持有此类股票，我们得以提前收获市场的奖赏，否则还要等更长时间。然而，市场对此类公司的胃口越来越大，最后剩下的，从基本面上看便宜的公司，越来越少。 

I believe the odds are good that, when the stock market and business history of this period is being written, the phenomenon described in Mr. May's article will be regarded as of major importance, and perhaps characterized as a mania. You should realize, however, that his "The Emperor Has No Clothes" approach is at odds (or dismissed with a “SO What?” or an "Enjoy, Enjoy”) with the views of most investment banking houses and currently successful investment managers. We live in an investment world, populated not by those who must be logically persuaded to believe, but by the hopeful, credulous and greedy, grasping for an excuse to believe.

当后人记录这一时期的股市和商业历史时，马文·梅(Marvin May)先生描述的现象一定会留下浓重的一笔，甚至被认为是一场狂潮。各位应该知道，我在这里说“皇帝没穿衣服”，大多数投行机构和飞黄腾达的基金经理肯定不这么想（或者他们会不以为然地说“那又怎么样？”，“今朝有酒今朝醉”）。在当前的投资环境中，我们周围都是这样的投资者：他们不需要逻辑合理才能相信，他们是一群盲目乐观、没有主见、贪得无厌的人，找各种借口骗自己。 

Finally, for a magnificent account of the current financial scene, you should hurry out and get a copy of “The Money Game” by Adam Smith. It is loaded with insights and supreme wit. (Note: Despite my current “Support Your Local Postmaster” drive, I am not enclosing the book with this letter - it retails for $6.95.)

最后，我要说的是，赶快，现在就去买一本亚当·斯密写的《金钱游戏》(The Money Game)。这本书以精彩的文笔描绘了当前金融领域的众生相，书中充满了深刻的见解和高超的智慧。（备注：虽然我很想参与“支持本地邮局”的活动，但我没随本信附赠此书。这本书售价6.95美元。） 

Taxes

Several unusual factors make the tax figure even more difficult than usual to estimate this year. We will undoubtedly have an above average amount of ordinary income. The picture on short term and long term capital gain is subject to unusually substantial variance. At the beginning of the year, I suggested that you use an 8% ordinary income factor (it won't come in this manner but this figure embodies an adjustment for long term capital gain) applied to your BPL capital account on an interim basis to compute quarterly tax estimates. If a figure different from 8% seems more appropriate for your September 15th quarterly estimate. I will let you know by September 5th. If no change is necessary, you will next hear from me on November 1st with the Commitment Letter for 1969.

税项

今年有一些特殊情况，纳税数字比往年更难估算。我们的普通所得肯定会高于平均水平。至于短期资本利得和长期资本利得是多少，受很多变化因素的影响。在今年年初，我建议各位在计算季度纳税估算数字时，对于各位的巴菲特合伙基金账户，暂时采用8%计算普通所得（这个数字与往常不同，其中考虑了长期资本利得）。如果对于9月15日的季度纳税数字估算，8%这个数字不太合适，我会在9月5日通知各位。如果无需更改，那么我的下一封信是11月1日，连同1969年的承诺书一起寄给各位。 

Cordially,
Warren E. Buffett
WEB/glk 

沃伦E.巴菲特谨上 

〔译文来源于梁孝永康所编《巴菲特致合伙人+致股东的信全集》〕

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