巴菲特致合伙人的信（1970年2月25日）③债券的市场活跃程度

Marketability

Tax-free bonds are materially different from common stocks or corporate bonds in that there are literally hundreds of thousands of issues, with the great majority having very few holders. This substantially inhibits the development of close, active markets. Whenever the City of New York or Philadelphia wants to raise money it sells perhaps twenty, thirty or forty non-identical securities, since it will offer an issue with that many different maturities. A 6% bond of New York coming due in 1980 is a different animal from a 6% bond of New York coming due in 1981. One cannot be exchanged for the other, and a seller has to find a buyer for the specific item he holds. When you consider that New York may offer bonds several times a year, it is easy to see why just this one city may have somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,000 issues outstanding. Grand Island, Nebraska may have 75 issues outstanding. The average amount of each issue might be $100,000 and the average number of holders may be six or eight per issue. Thus, it is absolutely impossible to have quoted markets at all times for all issues and spreads between bids and offers may be very wide. You can't set forth in the morning to buy a specific Grand Island issue of your choosing. It may not be offered at any price, anywhere, and if you do find one seller, there is no reason why he has to be realistic compared to other offerings of similar quality. On the other hand, there are single issues such as those of the Ohio Turnpike, Illinois Turnpike, etc. that amount to $200 million or more and have thousands of bondholders owning a single entirely homogeneous and interchangeable issue. Obviously, here you get a high degree of marketability.

债券的市场活跃程度

免税债券与股票或公司债券存在很大差别，免税债券真的可能有几十万种，大部分品种都只有很少的持有者，因此很难形成交投活跃的市场。当纽约市或费城需要筹集资金时，它们可能会发行20、30、40只不同的证券，因为虽然是同一个品种，但它们要提供不同的到期期限。纽约发行的收益率为6%、1980年到期的债券，与纽约发行的收益率为6%、1981年到期的债券，不是一个东西。这两个债券不能互换，必须要有买家，卖家才能把自己手里的债券卖出去。想想看，纽约一年要发行好几次债券，这一个城市就可能有将近1000只流通的债券。内布拉斯加州的格兰德岛都可能有75只流通的债券。每个品种的平均规模可能是100,000美元，每个品种的平均持有人数可能是6到8个人。债券品种这么多，根本不可能随时都有市场报价，而且买入价和卖出价之间的价差可能特别大。不是说你想买格兰德岛发行的某只债券，就能买得到。可能根本没有市场报价，就算你找到了一个卖家，他开的价格可能很离谱，比类似质地的其他债券贵很多。不是所有债券都这样。例如，俄亥俄州高速公路债、伊利诺伊州高速公路债等品种，它们的规模都在2亿美元以上，同一个可交易的债券品种，有成千上万的持有人。显然，这类债券的市场非常活跃。

My impression is that marketability is generally a function of the following three items, in descending order of importance:
(1) the size of the particular issue;
(2) the size of the issuer (a $100,000 issue of the State of Ohio will be more marketable than a $100,000 issue of Podunk, Ohio); and
(3) the quality of the issuer.

按我的理解，债券的市场活跃程度主要受三个因素影响，按重要程度依次是：
(1) 债券的规模；
(2) 发行人的实力（同样是100,000美元规模的债券，一个是俄亥俄州发行的，一个是俄亥俄州一个无名小镇发行的，前者的市场比后者更活跃）；
(3) 发行人的口碑。

By far the most sales effort goes into the selling of new issues of bonds. An average of over $200 million per week of new issues comes up for sale, and the machinery of bond distribution is geared to get them sold, large or small. In my opinion, there is frequently insufficient differential in yield at time of issue for the marketability differences that will exist once the initial sales push is terminated. We have frequently run into markets in bonds where the spread between bid and asked prices may get to 15%. There is no need to buy bonds with the potential for such grotesque markets (although the profit spread to the dealer who originally offers them is frequently wider than on more marketable bonds) and we will not be buying them for you. The bonds we expect to buy will usually tend to have spreads (reflecting the difference between what you would pay net for such bonds on purchase and receive net on sale at the same point in time) of from 2% to 5%. Such a spread would be devastating if you attempted to trade in such bonds, but I don't believe it should be a deterrent for a long-term investor. The real necessity is to stay away from bonds of very limited marketability - which frequently are the type local bond dealers have the greatest monetary incentive to push.

目前，在债券市场中，推销最多的是新发行的债券。每周新发行的债券规模在2亿美元以上。债券发行市场的重点是把这些债券卖出去，无论它们的规模是大是小。所有的债券，在刚开始发行的时候，都被大力推销。推销结束后，各个债券的市场活跃程度各不相同，但是它们发行时的收益率却没有足够的差别，没充分反映推销结束后不同的市场活跃程度。我们在市场中经常会看到买入价和卖出价之间的价差达到15%的现象。何必买可能出现这种怪异行情的债券？此类债券没有活跃的市场，但交易商推销这些债券可以获得更高的利润。我们不会给大家买这样的债券。我们打算购买的债券的价差（即同一时间买入和卖出之间的差价）在2%到5%之间。你要是频繁交易的话，这个价差就实在太高了，但是对于长期投资者来说，算不了什么。关键是要远离市场活跃度低迷的债券，这些一般来说正是债券交易商最愿意推销的品种，它们推销这些债券更有利可图。