巴菲特致股东的信(1991年)
①概述


To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

     Our gain in net worth during 1991 was $2.1 billion, or 39.6%. Over the last 27 years (that is, since present management took over) our per-share book value has grown from $19 to $6,437, or at a rate of 23.7% compounded annually.

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东:

本公司 1991 年的账面价值增长了 21 亿美元,或增长了 39.6%(标普 30.5%),自现任管理层接手的 27 年以来,每股账面价值由当初的 19 美元成长到目前的 6437 美元,年复合成长率约为 23.7%。

     The size of our equity capital - which now totals $7.4 billion - makes it certain that we cannot maintain our past rate of gain or, for that matter, come close to doing so. As Berkshire grows, the universe of opportunities that can significantly influence the company's performance constantly shrinks. When we were working with capital of $20 million, an idea or business producing $1 million of profit added five percentage points to our return for the year. Now we need a $370 million idea (i.e., one contributing over $550 million of pre-tax profit) to achieve the same result. And there are many more ways to make $1 million than to make $370 million.

现在我们股东权益的规模已高达 74 亿美元,所以可以确定的是,我们可能再也无法像过去那样继续维持高增长,而随着伯克希尔不断地增长,现今可以大幅影响我们业绩表现的投资机会也就越来越少。当我们管理的资金只有 2,000 万美元的时候,一项获利 100 万美元的投资就可以使得我们的年回报率增加 5%,但时至今日,我们却要有 3.7 亿美元的盈利(要是以税前计算的话,则要 5.5 亿美元),才能达到相同的效果,而要一口气赚 3.7 亿美元比起一次赚 100 万美元的难度可是高的多了。

     Charlie Munger, Berkshire's Vice Chairman, and I have set a goal of attaining a 15% average annual increase in Berkshire's intrinsic value. If our growth in book value is to keep up with a 15% pace, we must earn $22 billion during the next decade. Wish us luck - we'll need it.

伯克希尔的副主席查理·芒格与我一起设定,以 15%做为每年公司内在价值增长的目标,也就是说如果在未来十年内,公司要能达到这个目标,则账面价值至少要增加 220 亿美元,请大家祝我们好运吧!我们真的很需要。

     Our outsized gain in book value in 1991 resulted from a phenomenon not apt to be repeated: a dramatic rise in the price-earnings ratios of Coca-Cola and Gillette. These two stocks accounted for nearly $1.6 billion of our $2.1 billion growth in net worth last year. When we loaded up on Coke three years ago, Berkshire's net worth was $3.4 billion; now our Coke stock alone is worth more than that.

我们在 1991 年所经历帐面数字的超额增长是一种不太可能再发生的现象,受惠于可口可乐与吉列刮胡刀市盈率的大幅飙升,光是这两家公司就合计贡献了我们去年 21 亿美元账面价值增长中的 16 亿美元,三年前当我们大笔买进可口可乐股票的时候,伯克希尔的账面价值大约是 34 亿美元,但是现在光是我们持有可口可乐的股票市值就超过这个数字。

     Coca-Cola and Gillette are two of the best companies in the world and we expect their earnings to grow at hefty rates in the years ahead. Over time, also, the value of our holdings in these stocks should grow in rough proportion. Last year, however, the valuations of these two companies rose far faster than their earnings. In effect, we got a double-dip benefit, delivered partly by the excellent earnings growth and even more so by the market's reappraisal of these stocks. We believe this reappraisal was warranted. But it can't recur annually: We'll have to settle for a single dip in the future.

可口可乐与吉列刮胡刀可说是当今世上最好的两家公司,我们预期在未来几年他们的盈利还会以惊人的速度成长,相对地我们持股的价值也会以等比例的程度增加,然而另一方面去年这两家公司的股价上涨的幅度却远高于其本身盈利增长的幅度,所以说去年我们是双重获益:一方面是靠公司绝佳的盈利能力,一方面是市场对于公司股票的价值重估。当然我们认为这样的调整是经得起考验的,但这种情况不太可能每年都发生,展望未来我们可能只能靠前一点而获益。

〔译文源于芒格书院整理的巴菲特致股东的信〕

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