巴菲特致股东的信（1997年）③我们如何看待股市波动

How We Think About Market Fluctuations

A short quiz: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These questions, of course, answer themselves.

我们如何看待股市波动

小测试：如果你打算一辈子吃汉堡维生，自己又不养牛，那么你是希望牛肉价格上涨或是下跌呢？同样的要是你会频繁换车，自己又不是卖车的，你会希望车子的价格上涨或是下跌呢？这些问题的答案很显然显而易见。

But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the "hamburgers" they will soon be buying. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.

最后我再问各位一个问题：假设你预估未来五年内可以存一笔钱，那么你希望这期间的股票市场是涨还是跌？这时许多投资人对于这个问题的答案就可能是错的，虽然他们在未来的期间内会陆续买进股票，不过当股价涨时他们会感到高兴，股价跌时反而觉得沮丧，这种感觉相当于当你去买汉堡吃时，看到汉堡涨价却欣喜若狂，这样的反应实在是没有什么道理，只有在短期间准备卖股票的人才应该感到高兴，准备买股票的人应该期待的是股价的下滑。

For shareholders of Berkshire who do not expect to sell, the choice is even clearer. To begin with, our owners are automatically saving even if they spend every dime they personally earn: Berkshire "saves" for them by retaining all earnings, thereafter using these savings to purchase businesses and securities. Clearly, the more cheaply we make these buys, the more profitable our owners' indirect savings program will be.

对于不希望卖出股票的伯克希尔股东来说，这样的选择再明显也不过了，首先就算他们将赚来的每一分钱都花掉，伯克希尔也会自动帮他们存钱，因为伯克希尔会通过将所赚得的收益再投资于其它的生意和股票，所以只要我们买进这些投资标的的成本越低，他们将来间接所获得的回报自然而然就越高。

Furthermore, through Berkshire you own major positions in companies that consistently repurchase their shares. The benefits that these programs supply us grow as prices fall: When stock prices are low, the funds that an investee spends on repurchases increase our ownership of that company by a greater amount than is the case when prices are higher. For example, the repurchases that Coca-Cola, The Washington Post and Wells Fargo made in past years at very low prices benefitted Berkshire far more than do today's repurchases, made at loftier prices.

此外，伯克希尔许多重要的投资公司都持续不断地买回自家公司的股份，在这种情况下，股票价格越低对我们越有利，因为这代表同样的一笔钱可以买进更多的股份，从而间接提高我们持股的比例，举例来说，过去几年可口可乐、华盛顿邮报与富国银行皆以非常低的价格大量买回自家股票，其所带来的效益要比在现在的高价再进行有利的多。

At the end of every year, about 97% of Berkshire's shares are held by the same investors who owned them at the start of the year. That makes them savers. They should therefore rejoice when markets decline and allow both us and our investees to deploy funds more advantageously.

每年度结束，大约有 97%的伯克希尔股东会选择继续持有本公司的股份，这些人都是储蓄爱好者(股票收藏爱好者)，所以每当股市下跌时，他们都会感到高兴，因为这代表我们以及被投资公司的资金可以作更好的运用。

So smile when you read a headline that says "Investors lose as market falls." Edit it in your mind to "Disinvestors lose as market falls -- but investors gain." Though writers often forget this truism, there is a buyer for every seller and what hurts one necessarily helps the other. (As they say in golf matches: "Every putt makes someone happy.")

所以，当你看到“投资人在股市暴跌中损失巨大”的新闻头条时，你的脑海应该将其改成“股市暴跌不投资的人损失巨大而投资的人赚翻了”，虽然记者常常忘记这样的真理，不过只要有卖方就代表会有买方，一方损失就代表有另一方会得利，就像他们在高尔夫比赛常讲的：每一次推杆，都会有人在暗自高兴。

We gained enormously from the low prices placed on many equities and businesses in the 1970s and 1980s. Markets that then were hostile to investment transients were friendly to those taking up permanent residence. In recent years, the actions we took in those decades have been validated, but we have found few new opportunities. In its role as a corporate "saver," Berkshire continually looks for ways to sensibly deploy capital, but it may be some time before we find opportunities that get us truly excited.

当初我们靠着在 1970-1980 年代股价低迷时所做的一些投资，确实让我们赚了不少，这是一个对股市短暂过客不利却对股市长期住户有利的市场，近几年来，我们在那个年代所做的一些投资决策陆续获得了验证，不过现在我们却找不到类似的机会，身为企业资金的积蓄者，伯克希尔致力于寻找资金合理运用的方法，不过以现在的状况来看，我们可能还需要一段时间才能再找到真正让我们感到兴奋的投资机会。