巴菲特致股东的信（2015年）③企业内在价值

Intrinsic Business Value

企业内在价值

As much as Charlie and I talk about intrinsic business value, we cannot tell you precisely what that number is for Berkshire shares (nor, in fact, for any other stock). It is possible, however, to make a sensible estimate. In our 2010 annual report we laid out the three elements – one of them qualitative – that we believe are the keys to an estimation of Berkshire’s intrinsic value. That discussion is reproduced in full on pages 113-114.

尽管查理和我经常谈论企业内在价值，我们还是无法确切地告诉你们伯克希尔股票的这个数字是多少(事实上任何其他股票都是如此)。但是我们可以做出一个合理的估计。我们在2010 年的年度报告中列出了三个要素(其中一个是定性的)，我们认为这三个因素是评估伯克希尔内在价值的关键。

Here is an update of the two quantitative factors: In 2015 our per-share cash and investments increased 8.3% to $159,794 (with our Kraft Heinz shares stated at market value), and earnings from our many businesses – including insurance underwriting income – increased 2.1% to $12,304 per share. We exclude in the second factor the dividends and interest from the investments we hold because including them would produce a double-counting of value. In arriving at our earnings figure, we deduct all corporate overhead, interest, depreciation, amortization and minority interests. Income taxes, though, are not deducted. That is, the earnings are pre-tax.

以下是两个定量因素最新情况：2015 年我们的每股现金和投资增长了8.3%，达到159794 美元(卡夫亨氏股份按市值计算)，而且来自我们众多业务的经营性收益(包括保险承保收益)增长了2.1%，达到每股12304 美元。在第二个因素中，我们的每股投资剔除股息和利息收益，因为会产生价值的双重计算。我们在计算每股经营性收益时，扣除了所有公司的管理费用、利息费用、折旧费用、摊销费用和少数股东权益，但没有扣除所得税。也就是说，我们计算的是税前收益。

I used the italics in the paragraph above because we are for the first time including insurance underwriting income in business earnings. We did not do that when we initially introduced Berkshire’s two quantitative pillars of valuation because our insurance results were then heavily influenced by catastrophe coverages. If the wind didn’t blow and the earth didn’t shake, we made large profits. But a mega-catastrophe would produce red ink. In order to be conservative then in stating our business earnings, we consistently assumed that underwriting would break even over time and ignored any of its gains or losses in our annual calculation of the second factor of value.

我在上面的段落中"保险承保收益"使用斜体，是因为我们首次将保险承保收益纳入经营性收益。当我们最初引入伯克希尔两个支柱性定量因素的估值时，之所以没有计算在内，是因为当时我们保险承保业务的结果受到巨灾保险的严重影响。如果没有飓风和地震，我们会获得丰厚的承保收益。但是一场大灾难就会产生巨额亏损。在阐述我们的经营性收益时，为了保守起见，我们一直假定长期来看保险承保业务会盈亏平衡，因此在第二个价值因素的年度计算中，忽略了所有的保险承保损益。

Today, our insurance results are likely to be more stable than was the case a decade or two ago because we have deemphasized catastrophe coverages and greatly expanded our bread-and-butter lines of business. Last year, our underwriting income contributed $1,118 per share to the $12,304 per share of earnings referenced in the second paragraph of this section. Over the past decade, annual underwriting income has averaged $1,434 per share, and we anticipate being profitable in most years. You should recognize, however, that underwriting in any given year could well be unprofitable, perhaps substantially so.

今天相比于十几二十年前，我们的保险业务很可能更加稳定，因为我们已经不在强调巨灾保险，并极大地拓展了我们的基础业务范围。去年，保险承保收益为上文提到的每股12304 美元的收益贡献了1118 美元。在过去的十年中，保险承保收益年均达到每股1434 美元，而且我们预计，未来大部分年份都会赢利。但是你应该认识到，保险承保业务在任何一年都有可能大亏或是大赚。

Since 1970, our per-share investments have increased at a rate of 18.9% compounded annually, and our earnings (including the underwriting results in both the initial and terminal year) have grown at a 23.7% clip. It is no coincidence that the price of Berkshire stock over the ensuing 45 years has increased at a rate very similar to that of our two measures of value. Charlie and I like to see gains in both sectors, but our main goal is to build operating earnings.

自1970 年以来，我们的每股投资以18.9%的年复合增长率增长，我们的收益(包括在第一年和最后一年的保险承保收益在内)的年复合增长率达到23.7%。在接下来的45 年里，伯克希尔的股票价格的增长速度，与我们两种价值衡量标准值的增速非常相似，这并不是巧合。查理和我都希望看到这两个领域的收益都有所增长，但是我们的主要目标是增加经营性收益。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Now, let’s examine the four major sectors of our operations. Each has vastly different balance sheet and income characteristics from the others. So we’ll present them as four separate businesses, which is how Charlie and I view them (though there are important and enduring economic advantages to having them all under one roof). Our intent is to provide you with the information we would wish to have if our positions were reversed, with you being the reporting manager and we the absentee shareholders. (Don’t get excited; this is not a switch we are considering.)

现在，让我们来看看我们运营的四个主要业务板块。它们彼此之间的资产负债表和收入特征都存在巨大差异。因此我们将它们作为四个独立业务分别呈现，这也是查理和我看待它们的方式。(虽然它们共处伯克希尔一个屋檐下拥有极其重要和持久的经济优势。) 我们的目标是假设我们角色互换，你是作报告的管理层而我们是缺席的股东，提供给我们想要知道的信息。