巴菲特致股东的信（2022年）③秘密武器

The Secret Sauce

秘密武器

In August 1994 – yes, 1994 – Berkshire completed its seven-year purchase of the 400 million shares of Coca-Cola we now own. The total cost was $1.3 billion – then a very meaningful sum at Berkshire.

1994年8月——没错，1994年——伯克希尔完成了对我们现在持有的4亿股可口可乐 (Coca-Cola) 的七年期收购。总成本为13亿美元——这在当时的伯克希尔是一笔相当大的数目。

The cash dividend we received from Coke in 1994 was $75 million. By 2022, the dividend had increased to $704 million. Growth occurred every year, just as certain as birthdays. All Charlie and I were required to do was cash Coke’s quarterly dividend checks. We expect that those checks are highly likely to grow.

1994年我们从可口可乐收到的现金股息是7,500万美元。到2022年，这笔股息增长到了7.04亿美元。年年增长，跟过生日一样确定。查理和我需要做的全部事情就是去兑现可口可乐的季度股息支票。我们预计这些支票很可能还会继续增长。

American Express is much the same story. Berkshire’s purchases of Amex were essentially completed in 1995 and, coincidentally, also cost $1.3 billion. Annual dividends received from this investment have grown from $41 million to $302 million. Those checks, too, seem highly likely to increase.

美国运通 (American Express) 的故事大同小异。伯克希尔对美国运通的购买基本在1995年完成，巧得很，成本也是13亿美元。从这笔投资获得的年度股息从4,100万美元增长到了3.02亿美元。这些支票的金额看起来也极有可能继续增加。

These dividend gains, though pleasing, are far from spectacular. But they bring with them important gains in stock prices. At yearend, our Coke investment was valued at $25 billion while Amex was recorded at $22 billion. Each holding now accounts for roughly 5% of Berkshire’s net worth, akin to its weighting long ago.

这些股息增长虽然令人欣慰，却远谈不上惊天动地。但它们附带了股价的大幅上涨。到年底，我们对可口可乐的投资市值为250亿美元，美国运通的市值为220亿美元。两项持仓各自约占伯克希尔净资产的5%，跟很久以前的权重差不多。

Assume, for a moment, I had made a similarly-sized investment mistake in the 1990s, one that flat-lined and simply retained its $1.3 billion value in 2022. (An example would be a high-grade 30-year bond.) That disappointing investment would now represent an insignificant 0.3% of Berkshire’s net worth and would be delivering to us an unchanged $80 million or so of annual income.

假设一下，我在上世纪90年代犯了一个规模类似的投资错误，这笔投资原地踏步，在2022年仍然只值13亿美元（比如一只30年期高等级债券）。如今，这笔令人失望的投资在伯克希尔净资产中只占微不足道的0.3%，每年给我们带来的收入也只是不变的8,000万美元左右。

The lesson for investors: The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom. Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders. And, yes, it helps to start early and live into your 90s as well.

给投资者的启示是：花儿盛开之时，杂草的分量自然就不值一提了。假以时日，只需要几个赢家就能创造奇迹。当然了，早点起步、活到90多岁也有帮助。

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〔译文源于芒格书院整理的巴菲特致股东的信〕

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