巴菲特致股东的信（2023年）④我们不太秘密的武器

Our Not-So-Secret Weapon

我们不太秘密的武器

Occasionally, markets and/or the economy will cause stocks and bonds of some large and fundamentally good businesses to be strikingly mispriced. Indeed, markets can – and will – unpredictably seize up or even vanish as they did for four months in 1914 and for a few days in 2001. If you believe that American investors are now more stable than in the past, think back to September 2008. Speed of communication and the wonders of technology facilitate instant worldwide paralysis, and we have come a long way since smoke signals. Such instant panics won’t happen often – but they will happen.

偶尔，市场和/或经济环境会导致一些大型优质企业的股票和债券出现严重的错误定价。没错，市场有时会——而且将会——不可预测地突然冻结甚至消失，就像 1914 年那四个月和 2001 年的那几天一样。如果你觉得美国投资者现在比过去更沉稳了，回想一下 2008 年 9 月吧。通信速度和技术奇迹促成了全球瞬间瘫痪，自从烽火传信以来我们已经走了很远。这种瞬间恐慌不会常发生——但一定会发生。

Berkshire’s ability to immediately respond to market seizures with both huge sums and certainty of performance may offer us an occasional large-scale opportunity. Though the stock market is massively larger than it was in our early years, today’s active participants are neither more emotionally stable nor better taught than when I was in school. For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young. The casino now resides in many homes and daily tempts the occupants.

伯克希尔能够以巨额资金和确定的履约能力即时响应市场失灵，这也许能偶尔为我们创造大规模的机会。虽然股市比我们早年的时候大了不知多少倍，但今天的活跃参与者既不比我上学时情绪更稳定，也没有受到更好的教育。不管是什么原因，市场现在远比我年轻时更像一个赌场。赌场如今开在了千家万户中，每天诱惑着里面的住户。

One fact of financial life should never be forgotten. Wall Street – to use the term in its figurative sense – would like its customers to make money, but what truly causes its denizens’ juices to flow is feverish activity. At such times, whatever foolishness can be marketed will be vigorously marketed – not by everyone but always by someone.

金融世界有一个事实永远不应被遗忘。华尔街——这里取其象征意义——希望客户赚钱，但真正让华尔街上下兴奋的是疯狂的交易量。在那种时候，任何能卖出去的蠢东西都会被大力兜售——不是所有人都这样，但总有人这样。

Occasionally, the scene turns ugly. The politicians then become enraged; the most flagrant perpetrators of misdeeds slip away, rich and unpunished; and your friend next door becomes bewildered, poorer and sometimes vengeful. Money, he learns, has trumped morality.

有时候，场面变得很难看。政客们怒不可遏；那些最肆无忌惮的恶人带着大把钞票全身而退，逍遥法外；而你隔壁的朋友则变得困惑、贫穷，有时甚至充满怨恨。他终于明白了：金钱凌驾于道德之上。

One investment rule at Berkshire has not and will not change: Never risk permanent loss of capital. Thanks to the American tailwind and the power of compound interest, the arena in which we operate has been – and will be – rewarding if you make a couple of good decisions during a lifetime and avoid serious mistakes.

伯克希尔有一条投资准则，过去没有变，将来也不会变：永远不要冒永久性资本损失的风险。感谢美国的顺风和复利的力量，如果你这一辈子做了几个好决定、避开了严重的错误，我们所处的这个竞技场过去是——将来也是——回报丰厚的。

I believe Berkshire can handle financial disasters of a magnitude beyond any heretofore experienced. This ability is one we will not relinquish. When economic upsets occur, as they will, Berkshire’s goal will be to function as an asset to the country – just as it was in a very minor way in 2008-9 – and to help extinguish the financial fire rather than to be among the many companies that, inadvertently or otherwise, ignited the conflagration.

我相信伯克希尔能够应对前所未有的金融灾难。这种能力是我们绝不会放弃的。当经济动荡发生时——它一定会发生——伯克希尔的目标是成为国家的一笔资产，就像 2008-2009 年我们以微薄之力所做的那样——帮助扑灭金融大火，而不是成为那些有意或无意点燃大火的众多公司之一。

Our goal is realistic. Berkshire’s strength comes from its Niagara of diverse earnings delivered after interest costs, taxes and substantial charges for depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA” is a banned measurement at Berkshire). We also operate with minimal requirements for cash, even if the country encounters a prolonged period of global economic weakness, fear and near-paralysis.

我们的目标是现实的。伯克希尔的实力来自于它如尼亚加拉瀑布般的多元化收益——这是扣除利息、税收以及大量折旧和摊销费用之后的收益（"EBITDA"在伯克希尔是禁用指标）。即使国家遭遇长期的全球性经济疲软、恐慌甚至近乎瘫痪，我们对现金的需求也极低。

Berkshire does not currently pay dividends, and its share repurchases are 100% discretionary. Annual debt maturities are never material.

伯克希尔目前不派发股息，股票回购完全自主决定。每年到期的债务也微不足道。

Your company also holds a cash and U.S. Treasury bill position far in excess of what conventional wisdom deems necessary. During the 2008 panic, Berkshire generated cash from operations and did not rely in any manner on commercial paper, bank lines or debt markets. We did not predict the time of an economic paralysis but we were always prepared for one.

你们的公司还持有大量的现金和美国国库券，远超传统智慧所认为的必要水平。在 2008 年的恐慌中，伯克希尔靠自身经营产生现金，完全不依赖任何商业票据、银行授信或债券市场。我们没有预测经济瘫痪会在何时发生，但我们随时准备着。

Extreme fiscal conservatism is a corporate pledge we make to those who have joined us in ownership of Berkshire. In most years – indeed in most decades – our caution will likely prove to be unneeded behavior – akin to an insurance policy on a fortress-like building thought to be fireproof. But Berkshire does not want to inflict permanent financial damage – quotational shrinkage for extended periods can’t be avoided – on Bertie or any of the individuals who have trusted us with their savings.

极端保守的财务政策是我们对所有加入伯克希尔的合伙人做出的庄严承诺。在大多数年份——实际上是大多数十年里——我们的谨慎很可能被证明是多余的，就像给一座被认为防火的堡垒买保险一样。但伯克希尔不愿让伯蒂或任何信任我们、将积蓄托付给我们的人遭受永久性的财产损失（长时间的市值缩水是避不开的）。

Berkshire is built to last.

伯克希尔，为基业长青而生。