巴菲特致合伙人的信（1957年）①综合分析②投资回顾

The General Stock Market Picture in 1957

In last year's letter to partners, I said the following: My view of the general market level is that it is priced above intrinsic value. This view relates to blue-chip securities. This view, if accurate, carries with it the possibility of a substantial decline in all stock prices, both undervalued and otherwise. In any event I think the probability is very slight that current market levels will be thought of as cheap five years from now. Even a full-scale bear market, however, should not hurt the market value of our work-outs substantially.

1957年证券市场的综合分析

在去年写给合伙人的信中，我写道：我认为股市整体价格高于内在价值，主要是蓝筹股估值过高。如果确实如此，所有股票都存在大幅下跌的风险，无论是否低估。无论如何，我认为，五年之后回过头来看，人们不太可能觉得现在的价格很便宜。就算大规模熊市出现，我们的套利类(workouts)部分投资的市场价值也不会受到影响。

If the general market were to return to an undervalued status our capital might be employed exclusively in general issues and perhaps some borrowed money would be used in this operation at that time. Conversely, if the market should go considerably higher our policy will be to reduce our general issues as profits present themselves and increase the work-out portfolio.

如果整个市场回归到低估状态，我们可能会把所有资金都投入到低估类(general issues)中，可能还会借一部分钱来买低估的股票。反之，假如市场继续大幅走高，我们的策略是，将低估类不断获利了结，并增加套利类投资组合的比重。

All of the above is not intended to imply that market analysis is foremost in my mind. Primary attention is given at all times to the detection of substantially undervalued securities.

上面几句话是关于市场分析的，但是我首要考虑的不是市场分析。无论什么时候，我都把主要精力放在寻找严重低估的股票上。

The past year witnessed a moderate decline in stock prices. I stress the word "moderate" since casual reading of the press or conversing with those who have had only recent experience with stocks would tend to create an impression of a much greater decline. Actually, it appears to me that the decline in stock prices has been considerably less than the decline in corporate earning power under present business conditions. This means that the public is still very bullish on blue chip stocks and the general economic picture. I make no attempt to forecast either business or the stock market; the above is simply intended to dispel any notions that stocks have suffered any drastic decline or that the general market, is at a low level. I still consider the general market to be priced on the high side based on long term investment value.

去年，股市出现了温和下跌，我要强调的是“温和”二字。我们听新闻或与刚进入股市的人聊天时，会产生股市跌了很多的感觉。实际上，在我看来，与当前经济情况下公司盈利能力下跌的幅度相比，股价的下跌幅度太小了。公众仍然对蓝筹股和宏观经济强烈看多。我无意预测经济或股市。我只是想告诉你们，不要产生这样的错觉，以为股市已经出现了大幅下跌，不要以为整体市场目前处于较低水平。从长期投资价值出发，我仍然认为当前股市整体高估。

Our Activities in 1957

The market decline has created greater opportunity among undervalued situations so that, generally, our portfolio is heavier in undervalued situations relative to work-outs than it was last year. Perhaps an explanation of the term "work-out" is in order. A work-out is an investment which is dependent on a specific corporate action for its profit rather than a general advance in the price of the stock as in the case of undervalued situations. Work-outs come about through: sales, mergers, liquidations, tenders, etc. In each case, the risk is that something will upset the applecart and cause the abandonment of the planned action, not that the economic picture will deteriorate and stocks decline generally. At the end of 1956, we had a ratio of about 70-30 between general issues and work-outs. Now it is about 85-15.

1957年投资回顾

随着股市下跌，投资低估股票的机会越来越多。总体上，与去年相比，我们的投资组合中低估类所占比重高于套利类。下面我解释一下什么是“套利类”。套利类投资与低估类投资不同，它的获利途径不是来自一般意义上的股价上涨，而是取决于公司的某些活动。套利投资机会出现在出售、并购、清算、要约收购等公司活动中。在每一笔套利投资中，风险不是经济形势会恶化，也不是股市下跌，而是可能出现意外事件，打乱原有计划，公司不按原计划行事。1956年末，我们持有的低估类和套利类仓位比重为70：30，现在比例是85：15。

During the past year we have taken positions in two situations which have reached a size where we may expect to take some part in corporate decisions. One of these positions accounts for between 10% and 20% of the portfolio of the various partnerships and the other accounts for about 5%. Both of these will probably take in the neighborhood of three to five years of work but they presently appear to have potential for a high average annual rate of return with a minimum of risk. While not in the classification of work-outs, they have very little dependence on the general action of the stock market. Should the general market have a substantial rise, of course, I would expect this section of our portfolio to lag behind the action of the market.

去年，我们买了两只股票，我们在这两只股票上的持股数量已经达到可以影响公司决策的规模。其中一只股票在一些合伙人账户中占比为10%到20%之间，另一只占比约5%。这两只股票都大概需要三到五年时间实现利润，但是现在看来，它们都风险极低，而且可以实现很高的年化收益率。虽然它们不属于套利类，但这两只股票受大盘影响非常小。当然了，如果大盘大幅上涨，预计这部分投资会落后于市场涨幅。