巴菲特致合伙人的信（1957年）③业绩④业绩解读

Results for 1957

In 1957 the three partnerships which we formed in 1956 did substantially better than the general market. At the beginning of the year, the Dow-Jones Industrials stood at 499 and at the end of the year it was at 435 for a loss of 64 points. If one had owned the Averages, he would have received 22 points in dividends reducing the overall loss to 42 points or 8.470% for the year. This loss is roughly equivalent to what would have been achieved by investing in most investment funds and, to my knowledge, no investment fund invested in stocks showed a gain for the year.

1957年业绩

1957年，我们在1956年成立的三个合伙人账户大幅跑赢大市。1957年年初，道指为499点，年末未435点，下降64点。买入指数可以获得22点的分红，亏损可以降低到42点，也就是全年亏损8.470%。投资大多数基金获得的差不多就是这个收益，据我所知，今年投资股票的基金没有一个取得正收益的。

All three of the 1956 partnerships showed a gain during the year amounting to about 6.2%, 7.8% and 25% on yearend 1956 net worth. Naturally a question is created as to the vastly superior performance of the last partnership, particularly in the mind of the partners of the first two. This performance emphasizes the importance of luck in the short run, particularly in regard to when funds are received. The third partnership was started the latest in 1956 when the market was at a lower level and when several securities were particularly attractive. Because of the availability of funds, large positions were taken in these issues. Whereas the two partnerships formed earlier were already substantially invested so that they could only take relatively small positions in these issues.

1956年成立的三个合伙人账户均取得正收益，按照1956年净值计算，收益率分别为6.2%、7.8%和25%。你肯定会注意到，前两个合伙人账户的投资者一定也存在这样的疑问，最后一个合伙人账户的收益率为什么高出这么多。这个业绩差异表明，短期内运气很重要，特别是何时投入资金。第三个合伙人账户是1956年最晚成立的，当时市场更低，有几只股票特别便宜。我用当时收到的这批资金大笔买入了这几只股票。由于先前成立的两个合伙人账户中的资金已经大量用于投资，所以这两个账户只能以较小的仓位买入这几只便宜的股票。

Basically, all partnerships are invested in the same securities and in approximately the same percentages. However, particularly during the initial stages, money becomes available at varying times and varying levels of the market so there is more variation in results than is likely to be the case in later years. Over the years, I will be quite satisfied with a performance that is 10% per year better than the Averages, so in respect to these three partnerships, 1957 was a successful and probably better than average, year.

所有合伙人账户基本上都投资同样的股票，持股比例都相差不多。在成立初期，资金投入时间不同，股市所处点位不同，所以我们刚开始时业绩会有较大差别，将来差别会缩小。我的目标是能够长期取得每年领先指数10%的收益率，按照这个标准，这三个合伙人账户1957年的业绩都很好，甚至可以说是相当好了。

Two partnerships were started during the middle of 1957 and their results for the balance of the year were roughly the same as the performance of the Averages which were down about 12% for the period since inception of the 1957 partnerships. Their portfolios are now starting to approximate those of the 1956 partnerships and performance of the entire group should be much more comparable in the future.

1957年年中，我新建立了两个合伙人账户，在1957年下半年里，这两个账户的业绩与指数差不多，在此期间下跌了大约12%。现在这两个账户的投资组合将逐渐与1956年合伙人账户投资组合同步，将来所有合伙人账户的收益率差距会缩小。

Interpretation of results

To some extent our better than average performance in 1957 was due to the fact that it was a generally poor year for most stocks. Our performance, relatively, is likely to be better in a bear market than in a bull market so that deductions made from the above results should be tempered by the fact that it was the type of year when we should have done relatively well. In a year when the general market had a substantial advance I would be well satisfied to match the advance of the Averages.

业绩解读

1957年，我们的业绩高于一般水平，一部分原因是今年大多数股票表现普遍较差。与一般水平相比，我们在熊市里会比牛市里做得更好。我们今年的业绩不错，但在这样的年份中，我们的表现本来就应该比指数更好。当股市整体大幅上涨时，只要能跟上指数涨幅，我就非常满意了。

I can definitely say that our portfolio represents better value at the end of 1957 than it did at the end of 1956. This is due to both generally lower prices and the fact that we have had more time to acquire the more substantially undervalued securities which can only be acquired with patience. Earlier I mentioned our largest position which comprised 10% to 20% of the assets of the various partnerships. In time I plan to have this represent 20% of the assets of all partnerships but this cannot be hurried. Obviously during any acquisition period, our primary interest is to have the stock do nothing or decline rather than advance. Therefore, at any given time, a fair proportion of our portfolio may be in the sterile stage. This policy, while requiring patience, should maximize long term profits.

我可以肯定地说，与1956年末相比，1957年末我们的投资组合价值更高了。原因有两方面，一是股价整体更低了，二是我们有更多时间来收集严重低估的股票，收集这种股票就需要耐心。我前面提到了，我们最大的这一只股票占一些合伙人账户仓位的10%到20%。我计划将这只股票配置为所有合伙人账户仓位的20%，但是这不可能一步到位。毫无疑问，无论是买哪只股票，我们最希望看到的都是这只股票原地不动或下跌，而不是上涨。正因为如此，无论什么时候，我们的投资组合中都有相当大的一部分是处于沉寂阶段。这个投资策略需要耐心，但会给我们带来最高的长期收益。

I have tried to cover points which I felt might be of interest and disclose as much of our philosophy as may be imparted without talking of individual issues. If there are any questions concerning any phase of the operation, I would welcome hearing from you.

在这封信中，我尽量讲到所有你可能关心的话题，尽量在不深入讨论具体投资细节的情况，讲解我们的理念。如果有关于我们投资活动的任何问题，请告诉我。