巴菲特致合伙人的信（1958年）①整体情况②业绩

THE GENERAL STOCK MARKET IN 1958

A friend who runs a medium-sized investment trust recently wrote: "The mercurial temperament, characteristic of the American people, produced a major transformation in 1958 and ‘exuberant’ would be the proper word for the stock market, at least".

1958年股市的整体情况

我有位朋友，他管理一只中等规模的投资信托，最近他写了这样一句话：“美国人典型的性格特征是善变，这种性格造就了1958年的股票市场，如果要用一个词来形容1958年他们在股市上的情绪，这个词就是“亢奋”。

I think this summarizes the change in psychology dominating the stock market in 1958 at both the amateur and professional levels. During the past year almost any reason has been seized upon to justify “Investing” in the market. There are undoubtedly more mercurially-tempered people in the stock market now than for a good many years and the duration of their stay will be limited to how long they think profits can be made quickly and effortlessly. While it is impossible to determine how long they will continue to add numbers to their ranks and thereby stimulate rising prices, I believe it is valid to say that the longer their visit, the greater the reaction from it.

这句话很好地总结出了1958年股市的主要情绪变化，无论业余投资者，还是专业投资者，都这样。在过去一年里，人们找各种理由来证明“投资”股市的正确。和前些年相比，现在股市里性格善变的人更多了，只要他们觉得能轻松赚大钱，就一直不会离开。还有更多这样的人在不断涌入股市，把股价炒得越来越高，这个现象什么时候才能休止，不得而知。有一点我是确定的，股市里这样的人越多，持续时间越长，将来的后果越严重。

I make no attempt to forecast the general market - my efforts are devoted to finding undervalued securities. However, I do believe that widespread public belief in the inevitability of profits from investment in stocks will lead to eventual trouble. Should this occur, prices, but not intrinsic values in my opinion, of even undervalued securities can be expected to be substantially affected.

我不想预测股市，我的精力都放在了寻找低估的股票上。但是，所有人都以为买股票肯定能赚钱，最后一定不会有好结果。到时候，就连低估的股票也难免受到牵连，虽然它们的内在价值不会减少，但股价会大跌。

RESULTS IN 1958

In my letter of last year, I wrote:“Our performance, relatively, is likely to be better in a bear market than in a bull market so that deductions made from the above results should be tempered by the fact that it was the type of year when we should have done relatively will. In a year when the general market had a substantial advance, I would be well satisfied to match the advance of the averages.”

1958年的业绩

我在去年的信中写道：“与一般水平相比，我们在熊市里会比牛市里做得更好。我们今年的业绩不错，但在这样的年份中，我们的表现本来就应该比指数更好。当股市整体大幅上涨时，只要能跟上指数涨幅，我就非常满意了。”

The latter sentence describes the type of year we had in 1958 and my forecast worked out. The Dow-Jones Industrial average advanced from 435 to 583 which, after adding back dividends of about 20 points, gave an overall gain of 38.5% from the Dow-Jones unit. The five partnerships that operated throughout the entire year obtained results averaging slightly better than this 38.5%. Based on market values at the end of both years, their gains ranged from 36.7% to 46.2%. Considering the fact that a substantial portion of assets has been and still is invested in securities, which benefit very little from a fast-rising market, I believe these results are reasonably good. I will continue to forecast that our results will be above average in a declining or level market, but it will be all we can do to keep pace with a rising market.

1958年就属于最后一句话说的情况，我说中了。道指从435点上升到583点，算上20点的股息，道指整体上涨38.5%。过去一年，我管理的五个合伙人账户获得的平均收益率是略高于38.5%。按照年末净值计算，各个合伙人账户的收益率在36.7%到46.2%之间。在我们的投资组合里，有很大一部分股票并没从快速上涨的行情中受益，考虑到这个情况，我认为我们的业绩很不错了。我始终相信，在下跌或平盘的行情中，我们的业绩会跑赢指数，在上涨的行情中，我们能跟上指数涨幅就很好了。

THE GENERAL STOCK MARKET IN 1958 A friend who runs a medium-sized investment trust recently wrote: "The mercurial temperament, characteristic of the American people, produced a major transformation in 1958 and ‘exuberant’ would be the proper word for the stock market, at least".

THE GENERAL STOCK MARKET IN 1958

A friend who runs a medium-sized investment trust recently wrote: "The mercurial temperament, characteristic of the American people, produced a major transformation in 1958 and ‘exuberant’ would be the proper word for the stock market, at least".