巴菲特致合伙人的信（1962年）⑦例行预测

The Usual Prediction

I am certainly not going to predict what general business or the stock market are going to do in the next year or two, since I don't have the faintest idea.

例行预测

我肯定不会预测明后年宏观经济或股市行情会怎么样，我根本不知道。

I think you can be quite sure that over the next ten years, there are going to be a few years when the general market is plus 20% or 25% a few when it is minus on the same order, and a majority when it is in between. I haven’t any notion as to the sequence in which these will occur, nor do I think it is of any great importance for the long-term investor. If you will take the first table on page 3 and shuffle the years around, the compounded result will stay the same. If the next four years are going to involve, say, a +40%, -30%, +10% and –6%, the order in which they fall is completely unimportant for our purposes as long as we all are around at the end of the four years. Over a long period of years, I think it likely that the Dow will probably produce something like 5% per year compounded from a combination of dividends and market value gain. Despite the experience of the last decade, anyone expecting substantially better than that from the general market probably faces disappointment.

我认为今后十年，有几年大盘会涨 20%或 25%，有几年大盘会跌 20%或 25%，其余年份则在二者之间。我完全不知道哪年涨、哪年跌，长期投资者也不关心某一年的涨跌。请看一下前面的第一张表格，把每年的顺序打乱，复合收益率仍然不变。如果今后四年道指的收益率是+40%、-30%、+10%和–6%，具体顺序如何对我们来说根本不重要，只要四年后我们还在。长期来看，算上股息和市值增长，道指的年复合收益率可能在 5%到 7%之间。虽然过去十年道指涨得很多，但如果你期望道指的年复合收益率高于 5%到 7%，道指很可能让你失望。

Our job is to pile up yearly advantages over the performance of the Dow without worrying too much about whether the absolute results in a given year are a plus or a minus. I would consider a year in which we were down 15% and the Dow declined 25% to be much superior to a year when both the partnership and the Dow advanced 20%.

我们的工作是年复一年的超越道指，集小胜为大胜，不是特别在意某一个年的绝对收益率是正是负。与我们和指数都上涨 20%的年份相比，我认为，在指数下跌 30%而我们下跌 15%的年份，我们的表现更出色。

For the reasons outlined in our method of operation, our best years relative to the Dow are likely to be in declining or static markets. Therefore, the advantage we seek will probably come in sharply varying amounts. There are bound to be years when we are surpassed by the Dow, but if over a long period we can average ten percentage points per year better than it, I will feel the results have been satisfactory.

在讲我们的投资方法时，我已经说过了，与道指相比，我们表现最好的年份可能出现在下跌或平盘的市场中。因此，我们取得的相对收益可能时高时低，相差很大。有些年份，我们肯定会落后道指，但是如果长期来看，我们能平均每年战胜道指 10 个百分点，我觉得我们的业绩就很好了。

Specifically, if the market should be down 35% or 40% in a year (and I feel this has a high probability of occurring one year in the next ten --no one knows which one), we should be down only 15% or 20%. If it is more or less unchanged during the year, we would hope to be up about ten percentage points. If it is up 20% or more, we would struggle to be up as much. It is certainly doubtful we could match a 20% or 25% advance from the December 31, 1962 level. The consequence of performance such as this over a period of years would mean that if the Dow produces a 5% per year overall gain compounded, I would hope our results might be 15% per year.

具体来说，某一年市场下跌 35%或 40%（我觉得今后十年里某一年出现这种情况的概率是很大的，谁都不知道是哪年），我们应该只下跌 15%或 20%；某一年道指平盘，我们应该上涨 10%；某一年道指上涨超过 20%，我们很难跟上。要是道指从 1962 年 12 月 31 日的点位上涨 20%或 25%，我们很可能落后。长期来看，只要我们能有上述表现，如果道指的年化复合收益率在 5%到 7%之间，我们的业绩应该是每年 15%到 17%。

The above expectations may sound somewhat rash, and there is no question but that they may appear very much so when viewed from the vantage point of 1965 or 1970. Variations in any given year from the behavior described above would be wide, even if the long-term expectation was correct. Certainly, you have to recognize the possibility of substantial personal bias in such hopes.

你可能觉得我的预测不对，等到 1965 年或 1970 年时回过头来看，我的预测可能就是不对，就算我的长期预测是准确的，任何一年的表现都可能存在巨大波动。另外，我的预期可能存在严重的个人偏见，这个大家也要清楚。

The Usual Prediction I am certainly not going to predict what general business or the stock market are going to do in the next year or two, since I don't have the faintest idea.

The Usual Prediction

I am certainly not going to predict what general business or the stock market are going to do in the next year or two, since I don't have the faintest idea.