巴菲特致合伙人的信（1963年）①业绩

January 18, 1964

1964 年 1 月 18 日

Our Performance in 1963

1963 was a good year. It was not a good year because we had an overall gain of $3,637,167 or 38.7% on our beginning net assets, pleasant as that experience may be to the pragmatists in our group. Rather it was a good year because our performance was substantially better than that of our fundamental yardstick --the Dow-Jones Industrial Average (hereinafter called the “Dow”). If we had been down 20% and the Dow had been down 30%, this letter would still have begun “1963 was a good year.” Regardless of whether we are plus or minus in a particular year, if we can maintain a satisfactory edge on the Dow over an extended period of time, our long term results will be satisfactory -- financially as well as philosophically.

1963 年业绩

1963 年业绩很好。虽然有的合伙人讲求实际，对今年的收益率很满意，但 1963 年业绩好，不是因为我们的净资产比年初增加了3,637,167 美元，取得了38.7%的收益率。1963 年业绩好，是因为我们把我们的衡量基准道指远远甩在了后面。就算我们下跌 20%，道指下跌 30%，我一样会说“1963 年业绩很好”。某一年的涨跌不必在意，只要从长期看，我们相对道指能保持适度领先优势，我们就能取得理想的长期业绩，能赚钱，心也不会乱。

To bring the record up to date, the following summarizes the year-by-year performance of the Dow, the performance of the Partnership before allocation to the general partner, and the limited partners' results for all full years of BPL's and predecessor partnerships' activities:

下面是道指收益率、普通合伙人分成前合伙基金收益率、全年管理的有限合伙人的收益率、以及合伙基金早年收益率的最新逐年对比情况。

(1) Based on yearly changes in the value of the Dow plus dividends that would have been received through ownership of the Dow during that year.
(2) For 1957-61 consists of combined results of all predecessor limited partnerships operating throughout the entire year after all expenses but before distributions to partners or allocations to the general partner.
(3) For 1957-61 computed on the basis of the preceding column of partnership results allowing for allocation to the general partner based upon the present partnership agreement.

(1)根据道指年度涨跌计算，其中包含股息。
(2)1957-61 年的数据是之前全年管理的所有有限合伙人账户的综合业绩，其中扣除了经营费用，未计算有限合伙人利息和普通合伙人分成。
(3)1957-61 年的数据按前一列合伙基金收益率计算得出，按照当前合伙协议，扣除了普通合伙人分成。

One wag among the limited partners has suggested I add a fourth column showing the results of the general partner --let's just say he, too, has an edge on the Dow.

有位合伙人和我开玩笑，说怎么不再加一列，普通合伙人的收益率是多少。这么说吧，普通合伙人也跑赢道指了。

The following table shows the cumulative or compounded results based on the preceding table:

下表是累计收益率或复合收益率：

It appears that we have completed seven fat years. With apologies to Joseph we shall attempt to ignore the biblical script. (I've never gone overboard for Noah's ideas on diversification either.)

我们已经连续七年大丰收。抱歉了，约瑟(Joseph)，我们不打算相信圣经中的金科玉律（译注：在圣经故事中，上帝向埃及法老托梦，埃及将迎来七个丰年，随后是七个荒年，约瑟受命在丰年存粮，为荒年做准备）。（我对像诺亚方舟一样分散投资的做法也一直不感冒。）

In a more serious vein, I would like to emphasize that, in my judgment; our 17.7 margin over the Dow shown above is unattainable over any long period of time. A ten percentage point advantage would be a very satisfactory accomplishment and even a much more modest edge would produce impressive gains as will be touched upon later. This view (and it has to be guesswork -- informed or otherwise) carries with it the corollary that we must expect prolonged periods of much narrower margins over the Dow as well as at least occasional years when our record will be inferior (perhaps substantially so) to the Dow.

不开玩笑了。去年，我们跑赢了道指17.7个百分点。大家一定要注意：根据我的判断，我们不可能长期取得这样的领先优势。只要能长期跑赢道指10个百分点就很了不起了，就算领先优势不到10个百分点，也能创造惊人的收益，这个我们稍后会讲到。我的判断是主观的，不管我有什么依据，都是主观的。但是我们要清楚，按照我的判断，在很长时间内，我们相对道指的领先优势很可能大幅缩小，甚至有些年可能大幅落后道指，我们必须做好准备。

Much of the above sermon is reflected in "The Ground Rules" sent to everyone in November, but it can stand repetition.

我们每年 11 月份都会给大家发一份“基本原则”(The Ground Rules)，刚才讲的这些道理在基本原则里都有，但是这些道理说多少遍都不过分。