巴菲特致合伙人的信（1965年）①业绩

Our Performance in 1965

Our War on Poverty was successful in 1965.

Specially, we were $12,304,060 less poor at the end of the year.

1965 年业绩

1965 年，我们打赢了脱贫战（译注：1964 年美国总统林登·约翰逊在国情咨文中提出向贫穷开战(War on Poverty)，当时美国的贫困率是 19%）。

我们年末的资产比年初多了 12,304,060 美元。

Last year under a section in the annual letter entitled “Our Goal” (please particularly note it was not headed "Our Promise"), I stated we were trying to achieve “… An average advantage (relative to the Dow) of ten percentage points per annum for BPL before allocation to the general partner again with large amplitudes in the margin from perhaps 10 percentage points worse than the Dow in a bad year to 25 percentage points better when everything clicks.”

去年的信中有一段是“我们的目标”（注意，我写的不是“我们的承诺”），我说我们追求的是“…扣除普通合伙人分成之前，巴菲特合伙基金平均每年领先指数 10 个百分点。合伙基金的领先优势会剧烈波动：在不利环境中可能落后 10 个百分点；在顺风顺水时可能领先 25 个百分点。”

My fallibility as a forecaster was quickly demonstrated when the first year fell outside my parameters. We achieved our widest margin over the Dow in the history of BPL with an overall gain of 47.2% compared to an overall gain (including dividends which would have been received through ownership of the Dow) of 14.2% for the Dow. Naturally, no writer likes to be publicly humiliated by such a mistake. It is unlikely to be repeated.

去年刚定完目标，今年我们的业绩就偏离了目标，我的预测真是不靠谱。包含股息在内，道指的整体收益率是 14.2%，我们的整体收益率是 47.2%，这是巴菲特合伙基金成立以来取得的最大相对优势。我犯了错，大家都看到了，换了是谁，都会感到惭愧。以后应该不会有这样的事了。

The following summarizes the year-by-year performance of the Dow, the performance of the Partnership before allocation (one quarter of the excess over 6%) to the general partner, and the results for limited partners:

下面是道指收益率、普通合伙人分成前合伙基金收益率（收益超过 6%的部分，普通合伙人提取 25%）以及有限合伙人收益率的最新逐年对比情况。

(1)Based on yearly changes in the value of the Dow plus dividends that would have been received through ownership of the Dow during that year. The table includes all complete years of partnership activity.
(2)For 1957-61 consists of combined results of all predecessor limited partnerships operating throughout the entire year after all expenses, but before distributions to partners or allocations to the general partner.
(3)For 1957-61 computed on the basis of the preceding column of partnership results allowing for allocation to the general partner based upon the present partnership agreement, but before monthly withdrawals by limited partners.

On a cumulative or compounded basis, the results are:

(1)根据道指年度涨跌计算，其中包含股息。表格中为合伙基金整年运作的年份。
(2)1957-61年的数据是之前全年管理的所有有限合伙人账户的综合业绩，其中扣除了经营费用，未计算有限合伙人利息和普通合伙人分成。
(3)1957-61年的数据按前一列合伙基金收益率计算得出，按照当前合伙协议，扣除了普通合伙人分成。

下表是累计收益率或复合收益率：

After last year the question naturally arises, "What do we do for an encore?” A disadvantage of this business is that it does not possess momentum to any significant degree. If General Motors accounts for 54% of domestic new car registrations in 1965, it is a pretty safe bet that they are going to come fairly close to that figure in 1966 due to owner loyalties, dealer capabilities, productive capacity, consumer image, etc. Not so for BPL. We start from scratch each year with everything valued at market when the gun goes off. Partners in 1966, new or old, benefit to only a very limited extent from the efforts of 1964 and 1965. The success of past methods and ideas does not transfer forward to future ones.

去年收益率这么高，合伙人自然会问：“我们后面还有什么高招？”投资这行有一点不好，前一年强劲的势头对下一年基本没什么用。如果1965年通用汽车在国内上牌新车中占54%，由于用户忠诚度、经销商能力、产量、品牌形象等因素，可以相当肯定地说，1966年，通用汽车的销量应该和去年不相上下。我们的合伙基金不一样。每一年，发令枪一响，我们都一切按市值计算，从零开始。1964年和1965年，我们也努力了，但来到1966年，对于新老合伙人来说，我们过去的努力带不来多少收益。过去的赚钱方法和机会就是过去的，将来总要找新的方法和机会。

I continue to hope, on a longer-range basis, for the sort of achievement outlined in the "Our Goal" section of last year's letter (copies still available). However, those who believe 1965 results can be achieved with any frequency are probably attending weekly meetings of the Halley’s Comet Observers Club. We are going to have loss years and are going to have years inferior to the Dow - no doubt about it. But I continue to believe we can achieve average performance superior to the Dow in the future. If my expectation regarding this should change, you will hear immediately.

长期而言，我仍然希望我们能实现去年信中所说的“我们的目标”。（如需去年的年度信，请联系我们。）要是有人相信1965年的收益率能频繁出现，他们可能是在出席哈雷彗星观测者俱乐部的每周会议。亏损的年份，落后道指的年份，我们肯定会有。但是，我仍然相信我们将来的平均业绩能战胜道指。假如有一天，我认为我们达不到这个目标，我会立即告诉各位。

Our Performance in 1965Our War on Poverty was successful in 1965. Specially, we were $12,304,060 less poor at the end of the year.

The following summarizes the year-by-year performance of the Dow, the performance of the Partnership before allocation (one quarter of the excess over 6%) to the general partner, and the results for limited partners:

Our Performance in 1965

Our War on Poverty was successful in 1965.

Specially, we were $12,304,060 less poor at the end of the year.