巴菲特致合伙人的信（1965年）④投资情况进展

Trends in Our Business

Last year I discussed our various categories of investments. Knowing the penalties for cruel and unusual punishments, I will skip a rehash of the characteristics of each category, but merely refer you to last year's letter. However, a few words should be said to bring you up to date on the various segments of the business, and perhaps to give you a better insight into their strengths and weaknesses.

投资情况进展

去年，我详细介绍了我们的几种投资。法律规定禁止施加残酷和逾常刑罚（译注：Cruel and unusual punishment，美国宪法第八修正案规定禁止施加残酷和逾常刑罚），我就不赘述每个类别的特点了，各位可以从去年的信中找到相关内容。但是，我应该向大家报告一下各类投资的进展情况，让大家更了解每类投资的优缺点。

The "Workout" business has become very spasmodic. We were able to employ an average of only about $6 million during the year in the Workout section, and this involved only a very limited number of situations. Although we earned about $1,410,000 or about 23 ½% on average capital employed (this is calculated on an all equity basis - borrowed money is appropriate in most Workout situations, and we utilize it, which improves our rate of return above this percentage), over half of this was earned from one situation. I think it unlikely that a really interesting rate of return can be earned consistently on large sums of money in this business under present conditions. Nevertheless, we will continue to try to remain alert for the occasional important opportunity and probably continue to utilize a few of the smaller opportunities where we like the probabilities.

近来只有零星的“套利类”投资机会。去年，我们只做了几笔套利，平均只投入了600万美元。套利类的收益是1,410,000美元，平均资本回报率是23.5%（计算中使用的是自有资本。在大多数套利类投资中可以借钱，我们在套利投资中使用一部分借来的资金，可以提升回报率）。在这1,410,000美元的收益里，一半以上来自一笔套利。在当前的情况下，大量资金参与套利不可能持续获得较高的收益率。尽管如此，我们仍将继续关注偶尔出现的大机会，从概率看赢面较大的情况下，我们或许也会继续参与较小的机会。

The "Generals-Private Owner Basis" category was very good to us in 1965. Opportunities in this area have become more scarce with a rising Dow, but when they come along, they are often quite significant. I mentioned at the start of last year that we were the largest stockholder of three companies in this category. Our largest yearend 1964 investment in this category was disposed of in 1965 pursuant to a tender offer resulting in a realized gain for BPL of $3,188,000. At yearend 1964 we had unrealized appreciation in this investment of $451,000. Therefore, the economic gain attributable to 1965 for this transaction was only $2,737,000 even though the entire tax effect fell in that year. I mention these figures to illustrate how our realized gain for tax purposes in any year bears no necessary relationship to our economic gain.

1965年，“低估类（基于产业资本视角）”(Generals-Private Owner Basis)给我们带来了丰厚的收益。随着道指上涨，此类投资机会越来越少。但是这样的机会一出现，往往就是大机会。在去年的信中，我一开头就提到，我们在三笔低估类投资中是最大股东。1965年，我们通过要约收购将其中1964年末规模最大的一笔卖出，为合伙基金实现了3,188,000美元的收益。1964年末，此类投资的未实现增值是451,000美元。所以说，这笔交易对1965年贡献的收益只有2,737,000美元，但是全部税款都要在1965年缴纳。我给出这些数字，是想告诉大家：在任何一年，我们实现的收益都要纳税，这个实现的收益是用于税收的，和我们的实际收益没多大关系。

The fundamental concept underlying the Generals-Private Owner category is demonstrated by the above case. A private owner was quite willing (and in our opinion quite wise) to pay a price for control of the business which isolated stock buyers were not willing to pay for very small fractions of the business. This has been a quite common condition in the securities markets over many years, and although purchases in this category work out satisfactorily in terms of just general stock market behavior, there is the occasional dramatic profit due to corporate action such as the one above.

从刚才讲的这笔投资中，我们就能很好地理解“低估类（基于产业资本视角）”的含义。一个价格，产业资本非常愿意按这个价格买入一家公司的控股权（我们认为产业资本很聪明），但是散户就不愿按这个价格买入公司很小的一部分股权。多少年来，股市里一直都这样。单纯因为股市里人们的行为，这个类别的投资就能取得良好的收益。偶尔会出现要约收购等公司行为，这个类别能赚得更多。

The "Control" section of our business received a transfer member from our “Private Owner” category. Shares in Berkshire Hathaway had been acquired since November 1962 on much the same line of reasoning as prevailed in the security mentioned above. In the case of Berkshire, however, we ended up purchasing enough stock to assume a controlling position ourselves rather than the more usual case of either selling our stock in the market or to another single buyer.

“控股类”投资中新增了一个成员，是从“低估类（基于产业资本视角）”转过来的。我们从1962年11月就开始买入伯克希尔哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)的股份，买入的理由基本和上面讲到的那只一样。伯克希尔这笔投资的不同之处在于，我们最后买到了很多股票，我们自己取得了控股权。大多数低估类投资，要么是上涨后在市场卖出，要么是卖给其他大买家。

Our purchases of Berkshire started at a price of $7.60 per share in 1962. This price partially reflected large losses incurred by the prior management in closing some of the mills made obsolete by changing conditions within the textile business (which the old management had been quite slow to recognize). In the postwar period the company had slid downhill a considerable distance, having hit a peak in 1948 when about $29 1/2 million was earned before tax and about 11,000 workers were employed. This reflected output from 11 mills.

1962年，我们刚开始买伯克希尔时，买入的价格是每股7.60美元。纺织行业的格局发生了较大变化，之前的管理层后知后觉，被迫关闭了几家濒临淘汰的工厂，导致了巨大亏损，所以股价如此之低。二战结束以来，伯克希尔深陷泥潭，一直在走下坡路。1948年，这家公司最辉煌的时候税前利润有2950万美元，拥有11家工厂、11,000名工人。

At the time we acquired control in spring of 1965, Berkshire was down to two mills and about 2,300 employees. It was a very pleasant surprise to find that the remaining units had excellent management personnel, and we have not had to bring a single man from the outside into the operation. In relation to our beginning acquisition cost of $7.60 per share (the average cost, however, was $14.86 per share, reflecting very heavy purchases in early 1965), the company on December 31, 1965, had net working capital alone (before placing any value on the plants and equipment) of about $19 per share.

1965年春，我们取得控股权时，伯克希尔只剩下两家工厂，2,300名工人。没想到伯克希尔虽然只剩下残存的业务，但留下来的管理人员很优秀，我们不用从公司外面找人来经营，这真是太好了。我们最开始的买入成本才每股7.60美元（平均买入成本是每股14.86美元，1965年初我们加大了买入力度），1965年12月31日，这家公司的净营运资本就有每股19美元（厂房和设备的价值不算）。

Berkshire is a delight to own. There is no question that the state of the textile industry is the dominant factor in determining the earning power of the business, but we are most fortunate to have Ken Chace running the business in a first-class manner, and we also have several of the best sales people in the business heading up this end of their respective divisions.

能拥有伯克希尔，我们感到很高兴。毫无疑问，伯克希尔的盈利能力如何，主要决定因素是纺织行业的行业状况。幸好我们有一流的经理人肯·切斯(Ken Chace)负责公司运营，另外，负责伯克希尔销售团队的几位经理人也是行业精英。

While a Berkshire is hardly going to be as profitable as a Xerox, Fairchild Camera or National Video in a hypertensed market, it is a very comfort able sort of thing to own. As my West Coast philosopher says, “It is well to have a diet consisting of oatmeal as well as cream puffs.”

伯克希尔处于生存压力巨大的行业，不可能像施乐(Xerox)、仙童摄影器材(Fairchild Camera)或国家影视(National Video)那么赚钱，但是我们拥有伯克希尔非常放心。正如我的西海岸哲学家朋友所说：“燕麦、奶油泡芙都要吃，这样的膳食才合理。”

Because of our controlling interest, our investment in Berkshire is valued for our audit as a business, not as a marketable security. If Berkshire advances $5 per share in the market, it does BPL no good - our holdings are not going to be sold. Similarly, if it goes down $5 per share, it is not meaningful to us. The value of our holding is determined directly by the value of the business. I received no divine inspiration in that valuation of our holdings. (Maybe the owners of the three wonder stocks mentioned above do receive such a message in respect to their holdings -I feel I would need something at least that reliable to sleep well at present prices.) I attempt to apply a conservative valuation based upon my knowledge of assets, earning power, industry conditions, competitive position, etc. We would not be a seller of our holdings at such a figure, but neither would we be a seller of the other items in our portfolio at yearend valuations –otherwise, we would already have sold them.

既然已经取得了控股权，在审计中，我们对伯克希尔这笔投资会按照企业价值评估，而不是有价证券。伯克希尔的股价涨5美元，和我们没多大关系，我们不会卖。同样，跌5美元，也和我们没多大关系。控股公司的价值取决于公司本身的价值。在评估我们的控股权益时，我不是按照神的启示来估值。（前面提到了三只牛股，或许买了这三只股票的人真得到了神的启示。没有神的启示，现在的价格这么高，晚上怎么能睡得着？）对于伯克希尔，我会根据我对资产、盈利能力、行业状况、竞争情况等因素的了解，进行保守的估值。我们在年末会给出一个估值，但是我们不会按这个估值卖出，其他投资也一样，否则我们早就卖了。

Our final category is "Generals-Relatively Undervalued.” This category has been growing in relative importance as opportunities in the other categories become less frequent.

最后一类投资是“低估类（相对低估）”(Generals-Relatively Undervalued)。随着其他类别的投资机会减少，此类投资的重要性日益增加。

Frankly, operating in this field is somewhat more ethereal than operating in the other three categories, and I'm just not an ethereal sort. Therefore, I feel accomplishments here are less solid and perhaps less meaningful for future projections than in the other categories. Nevertheless, our results in 1965 were quite good in the
“Relatively Undervalued” group, partly due to implementation of the technique referred to in last year's letter which serves to reduce risk and potentially augment gains. It should reduce risk in any year, and it definitely augmented the gains in 1965. It is necessary to point out that results in this category were greatly affected for the better by only two investments.

说实话，与其他三类相比，我觉得这类投资多少有些虚浮，我不喜欢虚浮的东西。我觉得这类投资没其他几类那么稳妥，也不像其他几类那样可以比较准确地预知未来会如何。虽说如此，1965年，“相对低估类”投资表现优异，这得益于我在去年信中提到的操作方法，这种方法可以既能降低风险，又能提高收益。无论是哪一年，这种方法都应该能降低风险，但是在1965年，这个方法确实帮助我们提高了收益。需要告诉大家的是，为此类投资出色表现做出最大贡献的，只是两笔投资。

Candor also demands I point out that during 1965 we had our worst single investment experience in the history of BPL on one idea in this group.

因为要如实报告，我也要告诉大家，1965年，在相对低估类中，我们有一笔投资失败了，这是合伙基金成立以来最糟糕的一次单笔投资。

Overall, we had more than our share of good breaks in 1965. We did not have a great quantity of ideas, but the quality, with the one important exception mentioned above, was very good and circumstances developed which accelerated the timetable in several. I do not have a great flood of good ideas as I go into 1966, although again I believe I have at least several potentially good ideas of substantial size. Much depends on whether market conditions are favorable for obtaining a larger position.

整体来说，在相对低估类中，我们1965年的运气还是不错的。我们在这类投资中找到的机会不多，但是找到的都是相当好的（除了上面提到失败的那个）。由于情况变化，我们加快了对其中几个机会投资的步伐。进入1966年，我看到的机会不是很多，但刚才也说了，有几个大机会可能是相当好的。主要看市场情况是否有利，我们能不能买到比较多的货。

All in all, however, you should recognize that more came out of the pipeline in 1965 than went in.

总之，1965年用上了的投资机会多，新找到的投资机会少。