巴菲特致合伙人的信（1969年10月9日）（下）

Finally, a word about expectations. A decade or so ago was quite willing to set a target of ten percentage points per annum better than the Dow, with the expectation that the Dow would average about 7%. This meant an expectancy for us of around 17%, with wide variations and no guarantees, of course - but, nevertheless, an expectancy. Tax-free bonds at the time yielded about 3%. While stocks had the disadvantage of irregular performance, overall they seemed much the more desirable option. I also stressed this preference for stocks in teaching classes, participating in panel discussions, etc…

最后，我再说说预期。十多年前，我预计道指平均每年的收益率是7%左右，我可以毫不犹豫地把目标设为每年领先道指10个百分点。也就是说，我们当时的预期收益率是17%左右，当然了每年可能有巨大的波动，而且不承诺一定能做到，但不管怎么说，我们还是有这么个预期。当时，免税债券的收益率是3%左右，股票虽然比债券波动更大，但整体来看，买股票还是比买债券合适得多。当时，我在学校里讲课以及和别人讨论的时候，都表示更看好股票。

For the first time in my investment lifetime. I now believe there is little choice for the average investor between professionally managed money in stocks and passive investment in bonds. If correct. this view has important implications. Let me briefly (and in somewhat oversimplified form) set out the situation as I see it:

现在，我认为，对于普通投资者来说，是把钱交给职业基金经理，还是被动买入债券，这两者之间没什么好选的。我投资这么多年了，还是第一次遇到这个情况。如果我判断对了，那么这个情况会产生深远的影响。下面，我特别简单地分析一下我看到的情况：

(1)I am talking about the situation for, say, a taxpayer in a 40% Federal Income Tax bracket who also has some State Income Tax to pay. Various changes are being proposed in the tax laws, which may adversely affect net results from presently tax-exempt income, capital gains, and perhaps other types of investment income. More proposals will probably come in the future. Overall, I feel such changes over the years will not negate my relative expectations about after-tax income from presently tax-free bonds versus common stocks, and may well even mildly reinforce them.

(1)在我讲的情况中，我是以联邦所得税税档为40%并且需要缴纳所在州所得税的个人为例。税法改革正在进行，将来税法改革后，按照现在的税法计算的免税收入、资本利得以及其他投资收益可能会减少。税法改革会越来越深入。整体而言，将来税法改革后，也不会影响我对当前免税债券与股票税后收益的对比预期，甚至会对我的预期有微小的推动作用。

(2)I am talking about expectations over the next ten years - not the next weeks or months. I find it much easier to think about what should develop over a relatively long period of time than what is likely in any short period. As Ben Graham said: “In the long run, the market is a weighing machine - in the short run, a voting machine.” I have always found it easier to evaluate weights dictated by fundamentals than votes dictated by psychology.

(2)我这里说的预期是今后十年，不是今后几个星期或几个月。在一个较长的时间里会发生什么，这个比较容易想明白。要知道短期内会发生什么，就比较难了。正如本·格雷厄姆所说：“长期看，股市是称重机。短期看，股市是投票器。”重量是基本面决定的，这个比较容易评估。投票是心理决定的，这个比较难以捉摸。

(3)Purely passive investment in tax-free bonds will now bring about 6-1/2%. This yield can be achieved with excellent quality and locked up for just about any period for which the investor wishes to contract. Such conditions may not exist in March when Bill and I will be available to assist you in bond purchases, but they exist today.

(3)目前，被动投资免税债券可以获得6.5%的收益率。相应标的的质地特别好，而且想买多长时间的都可以。等到三月份，比尔和我帮大家挑选债券的时候不一定还存在这个情况，但现在是这样。

(4)The ten year expectation for corporate stocks as a group is probably not better than 9% overall. say 3% dividends and 6% gain in value. I would doubt that Gross National Product grows more than 6% per annum - I don't believe corporate profits are likely to grow significantly as a percentage of GNP - and if earnings multipliers don't change (and with these assumptions and present interest rates they shouldn't) the aggregate valuation of American corporate enterprise should not grow at a long-term compounded rate above 6% per annum. This typical experience in stocks might produce (for the taxpayer described earlier) 1-3/4% after tax from dividends and 4-3/4% after tax from capital gain, for a total after-tax return of about 6-1/2%. The pre-tax mix between dividends and capital gains might be more like 4% and 5%, giving a slightly lower aftertax result. This is not far from historical experience and overall, I believe future tax rules on capital gains are likely to be stiffer than in the past.

(4)今后十年，股票投资的整体收益率可能不会超过9%，其中包括3%的分红，以及6%的价值提升。国民生产总值每年的增长速度不会超过6%，公司利润的增长速度不可能比国民生产总值增速高多少，在市盈率不变的情况下（按上述假设以及当前利率，市盈率应该不会变），美国公司的整体价值的长期复合增长率应该不会超过每年6%。按照这个股市整体水平，对于上述纳税人而言，股息税后收益率是1.75%，资本利得税后收益率是4.75%，整体税后收益率是6.5%。股息和资本利得的税前收益率也有可能分别是4%和5%，这样的话，整体税后收益率就要更低一些。历史水平大致如此，而且我认为将来税法可能会规定征收更高的资本利得税。

(5)Finally, probably half the money invested in stocks over the next decade will be professionally managed. Thus, by definition virtually, the total investor experience with professionally managed money will be average results (or 6-1/2% after tax if my assumptions above are correct).

(5)今后十年，在所有投资股票的资金中，或许有一半将由职业基金经理掌管。投资者把资产交给基金经理掌管，他们获得的整体业绩不可能和平均水平有多大差别（即税后6.5%，如果我的假设正确的话）。

My judgment would be that less than 10% of professionally managed money (which might imply an average of $40 billion just for this superior segment) handled consistently for the decade would average 2 points per annum over group expectancy. So-called "aggressively run" money is unlikely to do significantly better than the general run of professionally managed money. There is probably $50 billion in various gradations of this "aggressive" category now - maybe 100 times that of a decade ago - and $50 billion just can't "perform".

我的判断是：在未来整个十年里，在职业基金经理掌管的资金中，不到10%（领先的这部分资金规模约400亿美元）能超过整体预期水平，每年平均领先两个百分点。那些风格激进的基金的收益率不太可能比一般基金的收益率高多少。目前，各种风格基金的基金掌管着500亿美元，规模是十年前类似风格基金的100倍。500亿的规模根本不可能取得超额收益。

If you are extremely fortunate and select advisors who achieve results in the top 1% to 2% of the country (but who will be working with material sums of money because they are that good), I think it is unlikely you will do much more than 4 points per annum better than the group expectancy. I think the odds are good that Bill Ruane is in this select category. My estimate . therefore, is that over the next decade the results of really excellent management for our "typical taxpayer" after tax might be 1-3/4% from dividends and 7-3/4% from capital gain. or 9 –1.2% overall.

如果你运气特别好，选到的基金经理能把业绩做到全国最高的1%到2%（因为他们业绩太优秀了，必然会管理大量资金），我觉得你每年的收益率最多也就比整体预期水平高4个点。比尔·鲁安有很大的概率，能成为这些最优秀基金经理中的一员。按我的估算，在今后十年中，真正特别优秀的基金经理能为“一般纳税人”带来1.75%的股息税后收益率和7.75%的资本利得税后收益率，即整体收益率为9.5%。

(6)The rather startling conclusion is that under today's historically unusual conditions, passive investment in tax-free bonds is likely to be fully the equivalent of expectations from professionally managed money in stocks, and only modestly inferior to extremely well-managed equity money.

(6)于是，我们可以得出这样一个令人吃惊的结论：与历史相比，当今的情况不同寻常，被动投资于免税债券取得的收益率，与职业基金经理投资股票的预期收益率完全不相上下，只比最优秀的股票投资收益率略为逊色。

(7)A word about inflation - it has very little to do with the above calculation except that it enters into the 6% assumed growth rate in GNP and contributes to the causes producing 6-1/2% on tax-free bonds. If stocks should produce 8% after tax and bonds 4%, stocks are better to own than bonds, regardless of whether prices go up, down or sidewise. The converse is true if bonds produce 6-1/2% after tax. and stocks 6%. The simple truth, of course, is that the best expectable after-tax rate of return makes the most sense - given a rising, declining or stable dollar.

(7)关于通货膨胀：通货膨胀与上述计算无关，但是与上面假设的国民生产总值6%的增长率有关，而且也是当前免税债券收益率达到6.5%的原因之一。如果股票的税后收益率是8%，而债券的收益率是4%，无论股价上涨下跌，还是横盘不动，持有股票都比持有债券好。但是，当债券的税后收益率是6.5%，而股票的收益率是6%时，那就反过来了。有一个最简单、最实际的道理：无论美元上涨下跌，还是横盘不动，我们最应当关注的都是哪个投资的预期税后收益率最高。

All of the above should be viewed with all the suspicion properly accorded to assessments of the future. It does seem to me to be the most realistic evaluation of what is always an uncertain future - I present it with no great feeling regarding its approximate accuracy, but only so you will know what I think at this time.

对待关于未来的评估，一定要持有合理的怀疑态度。对于我的上述预测，也不例外。未来总是不确定的，我上面所说的，是我认为对未来最贴切的评估。我把这些写下来了，但是并不以为我的预测有多准确，只是要把我当前的想法如实告诉各位。

You will have to make your own decision as between bonds and stocks and, if the latter, who advises you on such stocks. In many cases, I think the decision should largely reflect your tangible and intangible (temperamental) needs for regularity of income and absence of large principal fluctuation, perhaps balanced against psychic needs for some excitement and the fun associated with contemplating and perhaps enjoying really juicy results. If you would like to talk over the problem with me, I will be very happy to help.

如何在债券和股票中分配，投资股票的话，要交给谁打理，这些问题，必须由各位自己决定。我觉得，在很多情况下，做决定的时候，你首先要考虑自己有形和无形（性情方面的）的需求，是否需要定期获得收入，是否不想本金出现大幅度波动，然后还要考虑自己的心理需求，是否想享受可能获得超高收益率的兴奋和乐趣。如果你想和我谈谈这个问题，我非常乐意帮忙。

Sincerely,
Warren E. Buffett WEB/glk

此致
沃伦E.巴菲特谨上

(5)Finally, probably half the money invested in stocks over the next decade will be professionally managed. Thus, by definition virtually, the total investor experience with professionally managed money will be average results (or 6-1/2% after tax if my assumptions above are correct).

(6)The rather startling conclusion is that under today's historically unusual conditions, passive investment in tax-free bonds is likely to be fully the equivalent of expectations from professionally managed money in stocks, and only modestly inferior to extremely well-managed equity money.

Sincerely, Warren E. Buffett WEB/glk

Sincerely,
Warren E. Buffett WEB/glk