巴菲特致合伙人的信（1969年10月9日）（中）

Now, to Bill Ruane - we met in Ben Graham's class at Columbia University in 1951 and I have had considerable opportunity to observe his qualities of character, temperament and intellect since that time. If Susie and I were to die while our children are minors, he is one of three trustees who have carte blanche on investment matters - the other two are not available for continuous investment management for all partners, large or small.

现在该介绍比尔·鲁安(Bill Ruane)了。我和比尔·鲁安是1951年认识的，当时我们都在哥伦比亚大学向本·格雷厄姆学习。我们相识多年，我对他的品格、性情和才智非常了解。如果苏茜和我身故，我们的孩子成了孤儿，我们委托了三个人全权负责投资事宜，比尔·鲁安是其中之一。我们还有另外两个委托人，但他们无法一直为所有合伙人打理资产。

There is no way to eliminate the possibility of error when judging humans particularly in regard to future behavior in an unknown environment. However, decisions have to be made - whether actively or passively - and I consider Bill to be an exceptionally high probability decision on character and a high probability one on investment performance. I also consider it likely that Bill will continue as a money manager for many years to come.

看人不可能一点不出错，要判断一个人将来会怎样就更难了。这样的判断我们还必须得做，无论是主动的，还是被动的。我认为，选比尔，从他的品格上看，有特别高的概率是对的；从他的投资业绩上看，也有很高的概率是对的。我也认为比尔应该会长期做资产管理工作。

Bill has recently formed a New York Stock Exchange firm, Ruane, Cunniff & Stires, Inc., 85 Broad Street, New York, N.Y. 10004, telephone number (212) 344-6700. John Harding presently plans to establish an office for the firm in Omaha about March 1st, 1970. Bill manages accounts individually on a fee basis and also executes brokerage for the accounts - presently with some portion of the brokerage commissions used to offset a portion of the investment advisory fee. His method of operation allows monthly withdrawals on a basis similar to BPL - as a percentage of capital and unrelated to realized or unrealized gain or loss. It is possible he may form some sort of pooled account but such determinations will be made between him and those of you who elect to go with him. I, of course, will not be involved with his operation. I am making my list of partners available to him and he will be writing you fairly soon regarding a trip he plans to make before yearend to Omaha, Los Angeles and Chicago, so that those of you who wish to meet him may do so. Any of you who are going to be in New York during the next few months can contact him directly.

最近，比尔成立了一家纽约股票交易所会员公司，公司名是Ruane,Cunniff&Stires,Inc.，地址是纽约市百老街85号，电话是(212)344-6700。约翰·哈丁将在1970年3月1日为该公司在奥马哈设立办事处。比尔为付费私人客户管理资产，也经营券商业务，目前他的经营模式是客户的佣金可以抵免一部分管理费。他也像巴菲特合伙基金一样，允许每月按资金比例提现（与实现的收益或亏损无关）。他可能会把所有账户合并到一起管理，如果你打算把资金交给他管理，具体怎么做，要由你们商量。我完全不会参与他的管理工作。我会把我们的合伙人名单寄给他，他很快就会给各位写一封信。他打算年末之前到奥马哈、洛杉矶和芝加哥这几个地方，和你们见一下面。如果你这几个月打算去纽约，可以顺路直接拜访他。

Bill's overall record has been very good-averaging fairly close to BPL's, but with considerably greater variation. From 1956-1961 and from 1964-1968, a composite of his individual accounts averaged over 40% per annum. However, in 1962, undoubtedly somewhat as a product of the euphoric experience of the earlier years, he was down about 50%. As he re-oriented his thinking, 1963 was about breakeven.

比尔的整体业绩相当好，平均业绩和巴菲特合伙基金不相上下，但是波动幅度大得多。从1956-1961加上从1964-1968，他管理的个人帐户平均整体收益率是每年40%以上。但是，1962年，或许是前几年业绩太劲爆了，他下跌了50%左右。经过总结和反思，1963年，他取得了持平的业绩。

While two years may sound like a short time when included in a table of performance, it may feel like a long time when your net worth is down 50%. I think you run this sort of short-term risk with virtually any money manager operating in stocks and it is a factor to consider in deciding the portion of your capital to commit to equities. To date in 1969, Bill is down about 15%, which I believe to be fairly typical of most money managers. Bill, of course, has not been in control situations or workouts, which have usually tended to moderate the swings in BPL year-to-year performance. Even excluding these factors, I believe his performance would have been somewhat more volatile (but not necessarily poorer by any means) than mine - his style is different, and while his typical portfolio (under most conditions) would tend to have a mild overlap with mine, there would always be very significant differences.

在一张业绩表里，两年时间看起来好像很短，但是自己的资产下跌50%，这样的两年很难熬。在我看来，不管是选哪个资产管理人，只要是投资股票，都会遇到这样的短期风险。在决定自己将多少资金用于投资股票时，这个因素要考虑到。到目前为止，比尔1969年的收益率是下跌15%左右，大多数基金经理差不多都是这个业绩。比尔没做控股类和套利类投资，我们有控股类和套利类，它们有平滑合伙基金年度波动的作用。就算不考虑控股类和套利类，我也觉得比尔的业绩波动比我们更大（这当然不等于他的业绩不如我们），他的风格不一样。在大多数情况下，他的投资组合和我的只有一小部分重合，整体是非常不一样的。

Bill has achieved his results working with an average of $5 to $10 million. I consider the three most likely negative factors in his future to be:

在比尔实现上述业绩期间，他管理的资产规模平均下来在500万美元到1000万美元之间。我认为，在他将来的资产管理工作中，最大的不利因素有三点：

(1) the probability of managing significantly larger sums - this is a problem you are going to have rather quickly with any successful money manager, and it will tend to moderate performance; I believe Bill's firm is now managing $20 -$30 million and, of course, they will continue to add accounts;

(1) 他管理的资金可能比现在多得多。一个基金经理，只要做得好，很快就会面临这样的问题。管理资产规模增加容易拖累业绩。比尔的公司现在管理的资产在2000万美元到3000万美元之间，而且他管理的资产还会增加。

(2) the possibility of Bill's becoming too involved in the detail of his operation rather than spending all of his time simply thinking about money management. The problems of being the principal factor in a NYSE firm as well as handling many individual accounts can mean that he, like most investment advisors, will be subject to pressures to spend much of his time in activities that do nothing to lead to superior investment performance. In this connection, I have asked Bill to make his services available to all BPL partners - large or small and he will, but I have also told him he is completely a free agent if he finds particular clients diverting him from his main job;

(2) 比尔可能要拿出更多精力做公司的日常管理工作，这样就无法把所有时间都投入到思考资金管理中。他是一家纽交所会员公司的负责人，也管理着众多私人账户，他也可能像大多数投资顾问一样，身不由己，不得不做许多对提升投资业绩没用的事。我已经请比尔接受所有巴菲特合伙基金的合伙人了，无论他们资产规模是大是小，比尔也答应了。但是，我也和比尔说了，他要是觉得哪个客户影响了他的工作，他完全可以自己看着办；

(3) the high probability that even excellent investment management during the next decade will only produce limited advantages over passive management. I will comment on this below.

(3) 在今后十年，有很高的概率会出现这样一个情况：主动投资做得再出色，或许都不会比被动投资强多少。这一点，我要详细说一下。

The final point regarding the negatives listed above is that they are not the sort of drawbacks leading to horrible performance, but more likely the sort of things that lead to average performance. I think this is the main risk you run with Bill - and average performance is just not that terrible a risk.

我一共说了三个不利因素，这最后一个不利因素，不是说业绩会多糟糕，而是说业绩可能只有一般水平。这是把投资交给比尔打理的最大风险。不过，业绩一般这个风险算不上特别严重。

In recommending Bill, I am engaging in the sort of activity I have tried to avoid in BPL portfolio activities - a decision where there is nothing to gain (personally) and considerable to lose. Some of my friends who are not in the Partnership have suggested that I make no recommendation since, if results were excellent it would do me no good and, if something went wrong, I might well get a portion of the blame. If you and I had just had a normal commercial relationship, such reasoning might be sound. However, the degree of trust partners have extended to me and the cooperation manifested in various ways precludes such a "hands off" policy. Many of you are professional investors or close thereto and need no advice from me on managers - you may well do better yourself. For those partners who are financially inexperienced. I feel it would be totally unfair for me to assume a passive position and deliver you to the most persuasive salesman who happened to contact you early in 1970.

有的决策是这样的：做对了，得不到什么；做错了，会失去很多。在管理巴菲特合伙基金的投资组合时，我总是尽量避免做出这样的决策。但是我向各位推荐比尔，我做的这件事可能就是一个对我个人没什么好处的决策。我有一些朋友在我们的合伙基金里没有投资，他们劝我别推荐，将来业绩好，我得不到什么好处，将来业绩差，我倒会被牵连。如果你我之间只是简单的商业关系，这样的逻辑很合理。但是，想到合伙人这些年来对我的信任，从方方面面对我的支持，我不能撒手不管。你们里有许多人自己有相当高的投资水平，有的还是职业投资者，你们不需要我推荐资产管理人，你们自己可能会有更好的选择。但是，有些合伙人不懂投资，我要是什么都不做，眼看着你们在1970年被最能说会道的推销员拉走，我就太对不起你们了。