巴菲特致股东的信（1975年）①纺织业务②保险承包业务

To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

Last year, when discussing the prospects for 1975, we stated “the outlook for 1975 is not encouraging.” This forecast proved to be distressingly accurate. Our operating earnings for 1975 were $6,713,592, or $6.85 per share, producing a return on beginning shareholders’ equity of 7.6%. This is the lowest return on equity experienced since 1967. Furthermore, as explained later in this letter, a large segment of these earnings resulted from Federal income tax refunds which will not be available to assist performance in 1976.

致伯克希尔-哈撒韦的全体股东：

去年讨论公司1975年的前景时，我们预测今年的前景不是那么令人满意。不幸的是，这个预言成真了。1975年我们的营业利润为6,713,592美元，也就是每股收益6.85美元，初始股东权益回报率为7.6%。这是自1967年以来最低的回报率。然而，正如这封信后面分析的那样，营业利润中相当大的一部分来自联邦所得税退税，这并不能使1976年的业绩有所改善。

On balance, however, current trends indicate a somewhat brighter 1976. Operations and prospects will be discussed in greater detail below, under specific industry titles. Our expectation is that significantly better results in textiles, earnings added from recent acquisitions, an increase in equity in earnings of Blue Chip Stamps resulting from an enlarged ownership interest, and at least a moderate improvement in insurance underwriting results will more than offset other possible negatives to produce greater earnings in 1976. The major variable—and by far the most difficult to predict with any feeling of confidence—is the insurance underwriting result. Present very tentative indications are that underwriting improvement is in prospect. If such improvement is moderate, our overall gain in earnings in 1976 likewise will prove moderate. More significant underwriting improvement could give us a major gain in earnings.

但是，权衡比较之下，目前的局势表明1976年有些事情会有所好转。下面几个具体的行业中会有关于运营和前景的进一步分析讨论。我们的预计是：纺织业的业绩会有明显改善，近期的收购会使得收益增加，蓝筹股的权益回报率会因所有权的扩大而提高，并且保险承保利润的增加至少可以抵消其他的不利影响，使1976年产生可观的利润。目前最善变并且完全没有把握、难以预测的是保险承保业绩。现在初步迹象表明，承保的前景会有所改善。如果这方面的改善是缓慢的，那我们整体盈利的增加也会很缓慢。保险承保业务如果可以大幅提高，那么我们的营业利润也会大量增加。

Textile Operations

During the first half of 1975 sales of textile products were extremely depressed, resulting in major production curtailments. Operations ran at a significant loss, with employment down as much as 53% from a year earlier.

纺织业务

1975年上半年纺织品的销售下降，导致主要产品的生产缩减了。经营损失显著，资产使用率比去年同期下降了53%。

In contrast with previous cyclical slumps, however, most textile producers quickly reduced production to match incoming orders, thus preventing massive industry-wide accumulation of inventories. Such cutbacks caused quite prompt reflection at the mill operating level when demand revived at retail. As a result, beginning about midyear business rebounded at a fairly rapid rate. This “V” shaped textile depression, while one of the sharpest on record, also became one of the shortest ones in our experience. The fourth quarter produced an excellent profit for our textile division, bringing results for the year into the black.

然而，与以往的周期性衰退相比，多数纺织品生产商根据订单迅速减少了产量，因此，防止了全行业的大规模存货累积。当零售恢复正常需求时，这种消减对工厂经营水平的影响也就显而易见了。结果是，年中业务开始以较快的速度回升。这“V”字形的纺织业的衰退，是记录中最明显的一次，同时也是持续时间最短的一次。第四季度我们的纺织部门获得了极好的利润，使全年业绩扭亏为盈。

On April 28, 1975 we acquired Waumbec Mills Incorporated and Waumbec Dyeing and Finishing Co., Inc. located in Manchester, New Hampshire. These companies have long sold woven goods into the drapery and apparel trade. Such drapery materials complement and extend the line already marketed through the Home Fabrics Division of Berkshire Hathaway. In the period prior to our acquisition, the company had run at a very substantial loss, with only about 55% of looms in operation and the finishing plant operating at about 50% of capacity. Losses continued on a reduced basis for a few months after acquisition. Outstanding efforts by our manufacturing, administrative and sales people now have produced major improvements, which, coupled with the general revival in textiles, have moved Waumbec into a significant profit position.

1975年4月28日，我们收购了位于曼彻斯特New Hampshire的Waumbec Mills Incorporated and Waumbec Dyeing and Finishing Co.公司。这些公司由销售编织品发展到衣饰和服装贸易。这种帐幔材料通过伯克希尔的家庭纺织品部门销售，补充和延伸了已有的产品线市场。在收购之前，这家公司经营损失很严重，差不多只有55%的织布机在投入生产，染制厂只以50%的生产能力在运营。收购之后的几个月内亏损仍在继续，但是稍有减少。通过我们的制造商、管理人员和销售人员的杰出努力，情况已经有了很大的改进，同时也伴随着整个纺织业的复苏，Waumbec公司现在已扭亏为盈了。

We expect a good level of profits from textiles in 1976. Continued progress is being made in the movement of Waumbec goods into areas of traditional marketing strength of Berkshire Hathaway, productivity should improve in both the weaving and finishing areas at Manchester, and textile demand continues to firm at decent prices.

我们预计1976年纺织业会有良好的盈利水平。持续性的项目已取得进展，这些项目的目的是把Waumbec公司的商品转变到伯克希尔公司具有传统的营销优势的领域中，曼彻斯特的织造和染整领域的生产能力仍需有待提升，纺织需求品继续稳定在合适的价格。

We have great confidence in the ability of Ken Chace and his team to maximize our strengths in textiles. Therefore, we continue to look for ways to increase further our scale of operations while avoiding major capital investment in new fixed assets which we consider unwise, considering the relatively low returns historically earned on large scale investment in new textile equipment.

对于Ken Chace的能力以及他的团队能否最大程度的发挥我们在纺织业的优势，我们很有信心。因此，我们将继续寻找办法以壮大经营规模，同时也避免对新的固定资产的资本投资（考虑到过去在纺织机器上的巨额投资产生的回报却相当低，我们认为新增产能是不合理的）。

Insurance Underwriting

The property and casualty insurance industry had its worst year in history during 1975. We did our share—unfortunately, even somewhat more. Really disastrous results were concentrated in auto and long-tail (contracts where settlement of loss usually occurs long after the loss event) lines.

保险承保业务

1975年是有史以来财产和伤亡保险行业表现最差的一年。我们也不能幸免，甚略差于同行。真正灾难性的结果都集中在汽车和长尾线上（合同结算损失通常发生在长期亏损事件后）。

Economic inflation, with the increase in cost of repairing humans and property far outstripping the general rate of inflation, produced ultimate loss costs which soared beyond premium levels established in a different cost environment. “Social” inflation caused the liability concept to be expanded continuously, far beyond limits contemplated when rates were established—in effect, adding coverage beyond what was paid for. Such social inflation increased significantly both the propensity to sue and the possibility of collecting mammoth jury awards for events not previously considered statistically significant in the establishment of rates. Furthermore, losses to policyholders which otherwise would result from mushrooming insolvencies of companies inadequately reacting to these problems are divided through Guaranty Funds among remaining solvent insurers. These trends will continue, and should moderate any optimism which otherwise might be justified by the sharply increased rates now taking effect.

这次的通货膨胀使弥补人类和财产的成本大大超过了一般水平的膨胀，从而使我们最终的成本损失超过了在正常成本环境中的保费收入的增加。“社会性”的通货膨胀导致赔偿范围不断扩大，远远超过了最初实际比率拟定的上限，增加了超过我们赔偿范围的保险项目。这样的社会性通货膨胀导致投诉的可能性以及支付庞大的陪审团的奖金（这些原来都没有在统计范围之内）都显著增加。此外，投保人的损失（是因为越来越多的公司倒闭，因为他们对上述问题反应不够灵敏）将由担保基金和剩余的有偿付能力的保险公司承担。这种悲观的局势会一直持续，应对任何一种乐观主义（现在这种情绪已被证实在急剧增加）加以抑制，现在已经稍有成效。

Berkshire Hathaway’s insurance subsidiaries have a disproportionate concentration of business in precisely the lines which produced the worst underwriting results in 1975. Such lines produce unusually high investment income and, therefore, have been particularly attractive to us under previous underwriting conditions. However, our “mix” has been very disadvantageous during the past two years and it well may be that we will remain positioned in the more difficult part of the insurance spectrum during the inflationary years ahead.

伯克希尔的保险子公司业务与正确的产品线之间产生了偏差，导致1975年的承保利润有史以来最差。这种产品线会带来非凡的投资收入，因此，根据以往的承保条件，它对我们有很特别的吸引力。但是，我们的“组合”在过去的两年中一直处于不利状态，在未来的通货膨胀时期，我们将继续在保险部门最困难的领域坚持这种产品线定位。

The only segment to show improved results for us during 1975 was the “home state” operation, which has made continuous progress under the leadership of John Ringwalt. Although still operating at a significant underwriting loss, the combined ratio improved from 1974. Adjusted for excess costs attributable to operations still in the start-up phase, underwriting results are satisfactory. Texas United Insurance Company, a major problem a few years ago, has made outstanding progress since George Billing has assumed command. With an almost totally new agency force, Texas United was the winner of the “Chairman’s Cup” for achievement of the lowest loss ratio among the home state companies. Cornhusker Casualty Company, oldest and largest of the home state companies, continues its outstanding operation with major gains in premium volume and a combined ratio slightly under 100. Substantial premium growth is expected at the home state operation during 1976; the measurement of success, however, will continue to be the achievement of a low combined ratio.

1975年保险业唯一值得一提的部分是本土化业务，在John Ringwalt的领导下取得了持续的进展。尽管承保利润损失很大，但是综合利率还是比1974年有所增加。对于营业超额成本的调整正处于初步阶段，但承保业绩还是很令人满意的。德克萨斯联合保险公司，几年前这家公司还是一个棘手的难题，自从George Billing上任后就取得了优异的进展。在几乎是全新的机构力量的情况下，得克萨斯联合保险公司是“主席杯”的冠军，因为它在这些本土化公司中的损失率最低。Cornhusker Casualty Company，历史最久规模最大的本土化公司，继续以它优良的运营能力获得了大量的保费收益，综合利率稍低于100。1976年本土化业务的保费收入预计还是可以大量增加的，然而，成功的关键还是在于能否取得较低的综合利率。

Our traditional business at National Indemnity Company, representing well over half of our insurance volume, had an extraordinarily bad underwriting year in 1975. Although rates were increased frequently and significantly, they continually lagged loss experience throughout the year. Several special programs instituted in the early 1970s have caused significant losses, as well as a heavy drain on managerial time and energies. Present indications are that premium volume will show a major increase in 1976, and we hope that underwriting results will improve.

我们传统的业务是在国民赔偿公司，通常这家公司的业绩很好，能获得过半的总保险营业额，但是1975年保险承销结果却很糟糕。尽管利率经常性地大量提升，但是他们全年仍在持续地亏损。70年代早期设立的几个特殊的项目已产生了明显的亏损，同时也消耗了我们大量的管理时间和精力。目前迹象表明保费营业额在1976年会有增加，我们希望承保业绩也能有所改善。

Reinsurance suffered the same problems as our direct business during 1975. The same remedial efforts were attempted. Because reinsurance contract settlements lag those of direct business, it well may be that any upturn in results from our direct insurance business will precede those of the reinsurance segment.

1975年再保险业务正如我们预计的那样，面临同样的难题。同样的弥补措施已经付诸行动。由于再保险合同的清算滞后于那些直接的业务合同，这可能导致任何由直接保险业务引起的好转将会优先于再保险业务部门。

At our Home and Automobile Insurance Company subsidiary, now writing auto business only in the Cook County area of Illinois, experience continued very bad in 1975 resulting in a management change in October. John Seward was made President at that time, and has energetically and imaginatively implemented a completely revamped underwriting approach.

家庭与汽车保险子公司现在只在伊利诺斯的库克县经营汽车保险业务，1975年的业绩持续恶化，因此导致了10月份管理层的变动。当时John Seward被选为董事长，他很努力并且很有创造性地改良原有的承销方式。

Overall, our insurance operation will produce a substantial gain in premium volume during 1976. Much of this will reflect increased rates rather than more policies. Under normal circumstances such a gain in volume would be welcome, but our emotions are mixed at present. Underwriting experience should improve—and we expect it to—but our confidence level is not high. While our efforts will be devoted to obtaining a combined ratio below 100, it is unlikely to be attained during 1976.

总体来讲，1976年我们的保险营业额收入会增加很多。这是因为利率的提高而不是政策的改变。在正常的情况下，如此的收益很令人欣慰，但是我们现在的情绪却很复杂。保险承销业绩仍需改善，并且我们希望是这样，但是我们的信心不足。尽管我们会尽力使综合利率达到100一下，但这在1976年几乎是不可能的。

Textile Operations During the first half of 1975 sales of textile products were extremely depressed, resulting in major production curtailments. Operations ran at a significant loss, with employment down as much as 53% from a year earlier.

Textile Operations

During the first half of 1975 sales of textile products were extremely depressed, resulting in major production curtailments. Operations ran at a significant loss, with employment down as much as 53% from a year earlier.