巴菲特致股东的信（1976年）①纺织业务②保险承包业务

To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

After two dismal years, operating results in 1976 improved significantly. Last year we said the degree of progress in insurance underwriting would determine whether our gain in earnings would be “moderate” or “major.” As it turned out, earnings exceeded even the high end of our expectations. In large part, this was due to the outstanding efforts of Phil Liesche’s managerial group at National Indemnity Company.

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的股东：

两年惨淡业绩后，1976年经营业绩明显改善。去年我们预计保险承保业的进程将决定我们收益的大小。最终，收益超过了我们的最高预期。这在很大程度上取决于国家赔偿公司Phil Liesche管理团队的杰出成绩。

In dollar terms, operating earnings came to $16,073,000, or $16.47 per share. While this is a record figure, we consider return on shareholders’ equity to be a much more significant yardstick of economic performance. Here our result was 17.3%, moderately above our long-term average and even further above the average of American industry, but well below our record level of 19.8% achieved in 1972.

以美元计，我们的营业利润达到1607.3万美元，或说每股盈利16.47美元。尽管这是个创记录的数字，我们仍然认为股权回报率是衡量财务业绩的更重要的指标。本年我们的股权回报率为17.3%，稍高于我们的长期平均收益，甚至还高于美国工业的平均股权回报率，但远低于我们在1972年19.8%的股权回报率。

Our present estimate, subject to all the caveats implicit in forecasting, is that dollar operating earnings are likely to improve somewhat in 1977, but that return on equity may decline a bit from the 1976 figure.

考虑到所有可能的不利因素，目前我们预计1977年的经营收益可能会有所改善，但股权回报率可能会比1976年稍低一点。

Textile Operations

Our textile division was a significant disappointment during 1976. Earnings, measured either by return on sales or by return on capital employed, were inadequate. In part, this was due to industry conditions which did not measure up to expectations of a year ago. But equally important were our own shortcomings. Marketing efforts and mill capabilities were not properly matched in our new Waumbec operation. Unfavorable manufacturing cost variances were produced by improper evaluation of machinery and personnel capabilities. Ken Chace, as always, has been candid in reporting problems and has worked diligently to correct them. He is a pleasure to work with—even under difficult operating conditions.

纺织业务

1976年我们纺织部门经营业绩惨淡。无论以销售利润率还是资本回报率来衡量，纺织部门的业绩都很差。在某种程度上，这是由于行业状况没有达到一年前的预期，但我们自身的不足同样重要。在我们新开的Waumbec运营中，营销和产能没能很好的匹配。对机器和员工能力判断的不当导致了不利于我们的生产成本上的差异。Ken Chace一如既往地坦诚汇报问题并一直通过勤奋的努力来纠正它们。他以工作为乐，即使经营环境非常困难。

While the first quarter outlook is for red ink, our quite tentative belief is that textile earnings in 1977 will equal, or exceed modestly, those of 1976. Despite disappointing current results, we continue to look for ways to build our textile operation and presently have one moderate-size acquisition under consideration. It should be recognized that the textile business does not offer the expectation of high returns on investment. Nevertheless, we maintain a commitment to this division—a very important source of employment in New Bedford and Manchester—and believe reasonable returns on average are possible.

虽然一季度预期会亏损。我们初步预计1977年纺织业务的盈利将等于或稍超过1976年的水平。尽管目前的业绩不尽如人意，我们仍在寻找发展纺织业务的方法，并正在考虑一个中等规模的收购。应当承认纺织业务无法提供一个高的投资回报预期。然而，我们恪守着社会责任——它是新贝德福德和曼彻斯特的重要雇主——并相信未来获得平均的合理回报是可能的。

Insurance Underwriting

Casualty insurers enjoyed some rebound from the disaster levels of 1975 as rate increases finally outstripped relentless cost increases. Preliminary figures indicate that the stockholder owned portion of the property and casualty industry had a combined ratio of 103.0 in 1976, compared to 108.3 in 1975. (100 represents a break-even position on underwriting—and higher figures represent underwriting losses.) We are unusually concentrated in auto lines where stock companies had an improvement from 113.5 to 107.4. Our own overall improvement was even more dramatic, from 115.4 to 98.7.

保险承保业务

由于1975年的灾难使最终费率的增加超过了残酷的成本的增加，意外险公司从1975年灾难导致的困难运营中有所恢复。初步结果我们所拥有的财产和意外险公司1976年的综合赔付率为103，1975年为108.3。（100是承保的盈亏平衡点，综合赔付率高于100代表承保亏损）我们非常关注车险业务。本年其他车险公司的综合赔付率从113.5下降到107.4，我们自己的车险公司整体业绩的改进更有戏剧性，综合赔付率从115.4下降到98.7。

Our major insurance sector in insurance, the traditional auto and general liability business of National Indemnity Company, had an outstanding year, achieving profit levels significantly better than the industry generally. Credit for this performance must be given to Phil Liesche, aided particularly by Roland Miller in Underwriting and Bill Lyons in Claims.

我们在保险业最主要的业务，国家赔偿公司的传统车险和一般责任险今年业绩非常好，实现利润显著高于行业平均水平。这要归功于Phil Liesche及承保方面的Roland Miller和索赔方面的Bill Lyons的出色工作。

Volume at National Indemnity Company grew rapidly during 1976 as competitors finally reacted to the inadequacy of past rates. But, as mentioned in last year’s annual report, we are concentrated heavily in lines that are particularly susceptible to both economic and social inflation. Thus present rates, which are adequate for today, will not be adequate tomorrow. Our opinion is that before long, perhaps in 1978, the industry will fall behind on rates as temporary prosperity produces unwise competition. If this happens, we must be prepared to meet the next wave of inadequate pricing by a significant reduction in volume.

1976年，竞争者终于意识到以往费率过低，因此国家赔偿公司的承保量大增。但正如去年年报中所提到的，我们非常关注那些很容易受到经济和社会通胀影响的产品线。目前的费率充足，明天就不一定了。我们的看法是不久以后，可能在1978年，随着市场的短期繁荣造成的不明智的竞争可能使整个行业在费率上落后于通胀水平。如果那样，我们就要准备好迎接又一波定价不足的冲击，那样我们的成交量会大幅下降。

Reinsurance underwriting has lagged the improvement in direct business. When mistakes are made in the pricing of reinsurance, the effects continue for even longer than when similar mistakes are made in direct underwriting. George Young, an outstanding manager, has worked tirelessly to achieve his goal of profitable underwriting, and has cancelled a great many contracts where appropriate rate adjustments were not obtainable. Here, as in the direct business, we have had a concentration in casualty lines which have been particularly hard hit by inflationary conditions. The near term outlook still is not good for our reinsurance business.

再保险业务中定价错误的影响比直接保险业务定价中犯类似错误的影响要长。George Young，一个优秀的经理人，一直通过不断的努力来达到使其承保业务有利可图的目标，他取消了许多费率不能进行合理调整的保单。像直接险一样，我们在再保险业务中不得不关注已遭到通胀影响重创的意外险业务。短期来看，我们的再保险业务仍不会有太大发展。

Our “home state” operation continues to make substantial progress under the management of John Ringwalt. The combined ratio improved from 108.4 in 1975 to 102.7 in 1976. There still are some excess costs reflected in the combined ratio which result from the small size of several operations. Cornhusker Casualty Company, oldest and largest of the home state companies, was the winner of the Chairman’s Cup in 1976 for achievement of the lowest loss ratio among the home state companies. Cornhusker also achieved the lowest combined ratio in its history at 94.4, marking the fifth time in its six full years of existence that a ratio below 100 has been recorded. Premium growth was 78% at the home state companies in 1976, as market position improved significantly. We presently plan a new home state operation later this year.

我们的本土化公司业务在John Ringwalt的管理下继续取得了实质性进展。综合赔付率从1975年的108.4下降到1976年的102.7。综合赔付率里反映出由于一些公司规模太小导致仍然存在多余的成本。内布拉斯加州居民财险公司，本土化公司中历史最久、规模最大的公司也是1976年本土化公司中业绩最好的一个，它在这些公司中赔付率最低。同时，内布拉斯加州公司94.4的综合赔付率也是史上最低的，这是它成立六年来第五次综合赔付率在100以下了。1976年随着市场地位的显著提升，本土化公司保费收入增长率达到了78%。目前我们计划在今年晚些时候成立一家新的本土化公司。

Our Home and Automobile Insurance Company subsidiary, writing primarily automobile business in the Cook County area of Illinois, experienced a strong recovery in 1976. This is directly attributable to John Seward who, in his first full year, has revamped significantly both rating methods and marketing. The auto business has been shifted to a six month direct bill policy, which permits a faster reaction time to underwriting trends. Our general liability business at Home and Automobile has been expanded significantly with good results. While it remains to be proven that we can achieve sustained underwriting profitability at Home and Auto, we are delighted with the progress John Seward has achieved.

我们的附属公司，占据伊利诺伊州库克县地区汽车保险业务主要地位的家庭和汽车保险公司，在1976年经历了一个强劲复苏。这要直接归功于John Seward。John在他任职的第一年就对市场营销和承保评定方法进行了显著改革。我们的车险业务已经转移到一个六个月的直接险中，这样我们就能对承保趋势有更快的反应了。我们家庭和汽车保险公司的一般责任险业务也显著扩大并取得了很好的业绩。虽然家庭和汽车保险公司能否取得持续的承保盈利仍有待证明，我们对John Seward所取得的业绩已经非常满意了。

Overall, we expect a good year in insurance in 1977. Volume is high and present rate levels should allow profitable underwriting. Longer term, however, there are significant negatives in the insurance picture. Auto lines, in particular, seem highly vulnerable to pricing and regulatory problems produced by political and social factors beyond the control of individual companies.

总的来说，我们预计1977年保险业会有个不错的业绩。目前承保量很高且费率应该可以获得承保盈利。然而长远来看，保险行业有很多不利因素。特别是车险业务，它看起来极易受公司控制外的政策和社会因素所引发的定价和管理问题的影响。