巴菲特致股东的信（1979年）①营运成果②长期绩效

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

Again, we must lead off with a few words about accounting. Since our last annual report, the accounting profession has decided that equity securities owned by insurance companies must be carried on the balance sheet at market value. We previously have carried such equity securities at the lower of aggregate cost or aggregate market value. Because we have large unrealized gains in our insurance equity holdings, the result of this new policy is to increase substantially both the 1978 and 1979 yearend net worth, even after the appropriate liability is established for taxes on capital gains that would be payable should equities be sold at such market valuations.

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东：

首先，还是会计相关的议题，从去年年报开始，会计原则要求保险公司持有的股票投资在资产负债表日的评价方式，从原先的成本与市价孰低法，改按公平市价法列示，由于我们帐上的股票投资拥有大量的未实现利益，因此即便我们已提列了资本利得实现时应该支付的估计所得税负债，我们1978年及1979年的净值依然大幅增加。

As you know, Blue Chip Stamps, our 60% owned subsidiary, is fully consolidated in Berkshire Hathaway’s financial statements. However, Blue Chip still is required to carry its equity investments at the lower of aggregate cost or aggregate market value, just as Berkshire Hathaway’s insurance subsidiaries did prior to this year. Should the same equities be purchased at an identical price by an insurance subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway and by Blue Chip Stamps, present accounting principles often would require that they end up carried on our consolidated balance sheet at two different values. (That should keep you on your toes.) Market values of Blue Chip Stamps’ equity holdings are given in footnote 3 on page 18.

大家都知道，我们持股60%的蓝筹印花业务已并入伯克希尔的合并报表之中，然而依照现行会计原则规定，蓝筹印花的股票投资仍必须按照旧制-也就是成本与市价孰低法列示，换句话说，以同一种价格买进同一种股票，不同公司的会计评价方法竟不一样，(这是不是让你毛骨悚然)，蓝筹印花持股的市值请参阅附注三。

1979 Operating Results

We continue to feel that the ratio of operating earnings
(before securities gains or losses) to shareholders’ equity with all securities valued at cost is the most appropriate way to measure any single year’s operating performance.

1979年营运成果

就短期间而言，我们一向认为营业利益(不含出售证券损益)除以股东权益(所有股票投资按原始成本计算)所得出的比率，为衡量单一年度经营成果的最佳方式。

Measuring such results against shareholders’ equity with securities valued at market could significantly distort the operating performance percentage because of wide year-to-year market value changes in the net worth figure that serves as the denominator. For example, a large decline in securities values could result in a very low “market value” net worth that, in turn, could cause mediocre operating earnings to look unrealistically good. Alternatively, the more successful that equity investments have been, the larger the net worth base becomes and the poorer the operating performance figure appears. Therefore, we will continue to report operating performance measured against beginning net worth, with securities valued at cost.

之所以不按市价计算的原因，是因为如此做将使得分母每年大幅波动而失去比较意义，举例来说，股票价格大幅下跌造成股东权益跟着下滑，其结果将使得原本平常的营业利益看起来反而不错，同样的，股价表现越好，股东权益分母跟着变大的结果，将使得营业利益率变得失色，所以我们仍将按期初的股东权益(股票投资以原始成本计)为基准来衡量经营绩效。

On this basis, we had a reasonably good operating performance in 1979 - but not quite as good as that of 1978 - with operating earnings amounting to 18.6% of beginning net worth. Earnings per share, of course, increased somewhat (about 20%) but we regard this as an improper figure upon which to focus. We had substantially more capital to work with in 1979 than in 1978, and our performance in utilizing that capital fell short of the earlier year, even though per-share earnings rose. “Earnings per share” will rise constantly on a dormant savings account or on a U.S. Savings Bond bearing a fixed rate of return simply because “earnings” (the stated interest rate) are continuously plowed back and added to the capital base. Thus, even a “stopped clock” can look like a growth stock if the dividend payout ratio is low.

在这样的基础下，1979年我们获得了不错的经营成果，营业利益达到期初净值的18.6%，略逊于1978年的数字，当然每股盈余成长了不少(约20%)，但我们不认为应该对每股盈余过于关注，因为虽然1979年我们可运用的资金又增加了不少，但运用的绩效却反而不如前一年度，因为即便是利率固定的定存帐户，只要摆着不动，将领取的利息滚入本金，每年的盈余还是能达到稳定成长的效果，一个静止不动的时钟，只要不注意，看起来也像是运作正常的时钟。

The primary test of managerial economic performance is the achievement of a high earnings rate on equity capital employed (without undue leverage, accounting gimmickry, etc.) and not the achievement of consistent gains in earnings per share. In our view, many businesses would be better understood by their shareholder owners, as well as the general public, if managements and financial analysts modified the primary emphasis they place upon earnings per share, and upon yearly changes in that figure.

所以我们判断一家公司经营好坏的主要依据，取决于其股东权益报酬率(排除不当的财务杠杆或会计作帐)，而非每股盈余的成长与否，我们认为如果管理当局及证券分析师能修正其对每股盈余的关注，则股东及一般投资大众将会对这些公司的营运情况有更深入的了解。

Long Term Results

In measuring long term economic performance - in contrast to yearly performance - we believe it is appropriate to recognize fully any realized capital gains or losses as well as extraordinary items, and also to utilize financial statements presenting equity securities at market value. Such capital gains or losses, either realized or unrealized, are fully as important to shareholders over a period of years as earnings realized in a more routine manner through operations; it is just that their impact is often extremely capricious in the short run, a characteristic that makes them inappropriate as an indicator of single year managerial performance.

长期绩效

就长期间而言，我们则认为公司纯益(包含已实现、未实现资本利得与非常损益)除以股东权益(所有投资以公平市价计算)所得的比率，为衡量永续经营成果的最佳方式，其中额外的资本利得，短期间看起来或许相当特殊，但就长期而言，其对股东利益的影响与日常的营业利益并无太大差别。

The book value per share of Berkshire Hathaway on September 30, 1964 (the fiscal yearend prior to the time that your present management assumed responsibility) was $19.46 per share. At yearend 1979, book value with equity holdings carried at market value was $335.85 per share. The gain in book value comes to 20.5% compounded annually. This figure, of course, is far higher than any average of our yearly operating earnings calculations, and reflects the importance of capital appreciation of insurance equity investments in determining the overall results for our shareholders. It probably also is fair to say that the quoted book value in 1964 somewhat overstated the intrinsic value of the enterprise, since the assets owned at that time on either a going concern basis or a liquidating value basis were not worth 100 cents on the dollar. (The liabilities were solid, however.)

自现有经营阶层接掌伯克希尔(1964-1979)的十五年来，公司每股净值由19.46美元成长至335.85美元(持有股票投资以市价计)，年复合成长率达20.5%。这个比率远高于每年营业利益率的平均数，突显保险子公司股票增值利益对于股东权益的重要性，而且1964年的帐面价值实际上超过其实质价值，因为当时帐列的资产不论是以继续经营或清算的基础来看，其价值都远低于帐面净值，(至于负债则一毛也少不了)。

We have achieved this result while utilizing a low amount of leverage (both financial leverage measured by debt to equity, and operating leverage measured by premium volume to capital funds of our insurance business), and also without significant issuance or repurchase of shares. Basically, we have worked with the capital with which we started. From our textile base we, or our Blue Chip and Wesco subsidiaries, have acquired total ownership of thirteen businesses through negotiated purchases from private owners for cash, and have started six others. (It’s worth a mention that those who have sold to us have, almost without exception, treated us with exceptional honor and fairness, both at the time of sale and subsequently.)

我们极少运用财务杠杆(不论是财务面的负债比，或是营运面的保费收入与资本比都相当低)，亦很少发行新股筹资或买回自家股份，基本上我们就是利用现有的资金，在原有纺织业或蓝筹印花及Wesco子公司的基础下，前后总计以现金购并了十三家公司，另外也成立了六家公司，(必须说明的是，这些人在把公司卖给我们的当时与事后，对我们都相当客气且坦诚)。

But before we drown in a sea of self-congratulation, a further - and crucial - observation must be made. A few years ago, a business whose per-share net worth compounded at 20% annually would have guaranteed its owners a highly successful real investment return. Now such an outcome seems less certain. For the inflation rate, coupled with individual tax rates, will be the ultimate determinant as to whether our internal operating performance produces successful investment results - i.e., a reasonable gain in purchasing power from funds committed - for you as shareholders.

但在各位过度沉溺于欢乐气氛之前，我们必须更严格的自我检视，几年前，年复合报酬率达到20%的投资或许就可以称得上是成功的投资，但目前则未必，因为我们还须把通货膨胀率与个人所得税率列入考量，投资人惟有将这些负面因素扣除后所得购买力的净增加，才能论定最后的投资结果是否令人感到满意。

Just as the original 3% savings bond, a 5% passbook savings account or an 8% U.S. Treasury Note have, in turn, been transformed by inflation into financial instruments that chew up, rather than enhance, purchasing power over their investment lives, a business earning 20% on capital can produce a negative real return for its owners under inflationary conditions not much more severe than presently prevail.

就像是3%的储蓄债券、5%的银行定存以及8%的国库券，由于通膨因素使得这些投资变成侵蚀而非增加投资人购买力的工具，同样的一项每年可以赚取20%盈余的事业，在严重的通货膨胀情况下，也会产生类似的效果。

If we should continue to achieve a 20% compounded gain - not an easy or certain result by any means - and this gain is translated into a corresponding increase in the market value of Berkshire Hathaway stock as it has been over the last fifteen years, your after-tax purchasing power gain is likely to be very close to zero at a 14% inflation rate. Most of the remaining six percentage points will go for income tax any time you wish to convert your twenty percentage points of nominal annual gain into cash.

而如果我们继续维持每年20%的获利，这成绩已相当不简单，而且无法保证每年都如此，而这样的成绩又完全转化成伯克希尔股票价格的上涨，如同过去15年来的情况，那么在14%的高通货膨胀率之下，各位的购买力可以说几乎没有任何增加，因为剩下的6%将会在你决定将这20%的所得变现放入口袋时，用来缴交所得税给国库。

That combination - the inflation rate plus the percentage of capital that must be paid by the owner to transfer into his own pocket the annual earnings achieved by the business (i.e., ordinary income tax on dividends and capital gains tax on retained earnings) - can be thought of as an “investor’s misery index”. When this index exceeds the rate of return earned on equity by the business, the investor’s purchasing power (real capital) shrinks even though he consumes nothing at all. We have no corporate solution to this problem; high inflation rates will not help us earn higher rates of return on equity.

通货膨胀率以及股东在将每年公司获利放入口袋之前必须支付的所得税率(通常是股利以及资本利得所需缴纳的所得税)，两者合计可被称为“投资人痛苦指数”，当这个指数超过股东权益的报酬率时，意味着投资人的购买力(真正的资本)不增反减，对于这样的情况我们无计可施，因为高通货膨胀率不代表股东报酬率也会跟着提高。

One friendly but sharp-eyed commentator on Berkshire has pointed out that our book value at the end of 1964 would have bought about one-half ounce of gold and, fifteen years later, after we have plowed back all earnings along with much blood, sweat and tears, the book value produced will buy about the same half ounce. A similar comparison could be drawn with Middle Eastern oil. The rub has been that government has been exceptionally able in printing money and creating promises, but is unable to print gold or create oil.

一位长期观察伯克希尔的朋友曾指出，1964年底我们每股帐面净值约可换得半盎司黄金，十五年之后，在我们流血流汗地努力耕耘后，每股帐面净值还是只能换得半盎司黄金，相同的道理也可以适用于中东地区的石油之上，关键就在于我们的政府只会印钞票及画大饼，却不会出产黄金或石油。

We intend to continue to do as well as we can in managing the internal affairs of the business. But you should understand that external conditions affecting the stability of currency may very well be the most important factor in determining whether there are any real rewards from your investment in Berkshire Hathaway.

我们仍将持续努力地妥善管理企业内部事务，但大家必须了解外界环境，如货币情势的变化却是决定各位在伯克希尔投资回报的最后关键因素。

1979 Operating Results We continue to feel that the ratio of operating earnings (before securities gains or losses) to shareholders’ equity with all securities valued at cost is the most appropriate way to measure any single year’s operating performance.

1979 Operating Results

We continue to feel that the ratio of operating earnings
(before securities gains or losses) to shareholders’ equity with all securities valued at cost is the most appropriate way to measure any single year’s operating performance.