巴菲特致股东的信（1980年）⑥保险产业现状

Insurance Industry Conditions

The insurance industry’s underwriting picture continues to unfold about as we anticipated, with the combined ratio (see definition on page 37) rising from 100.6 in 1979 to an estimated 103.5 in 1980. It is virtually certain that this trend will continue and that industry underwriting losses will mount, significantly and progressively, in 1981 and 1982. To understand why, we recommend that you read the excellent analysis of property-casualty competitive dynamics done by Barbara Stewart of Chubb Corp. in an October 1980 paper. (Chubb’s annual report consistently presents the most insightful, candid and well- written discussion of industry conditions; you should get on the company’s mailing list.) Mrs. Stewart’s analysis may not be cheerful, but we think it is very likely to be accurate.

保险产业现况

保险产业的情况持续依我们先前所预期般地发展，综合比率从1979年的100.6升高到1980年估计的103.5，可预期的是1981到1982年这个趋势将继续持续下去，业界的核保损失将向上攀升，想要了解个中原因的人，我建议你读读丘博保险集团的年报，其对产险业竞争态势所作的精譬分析，虽然报告不见得令人振奋，但绝对中肯。

And, unfortunately, a largely unreported but particularly pernicious problem may well prolong and intensify the coming industry agony. It is not only likely to keep many insurers scrambling for business when underwriting losses hit record levels - it is likely to cause them at such a time to redouble their efforts.

而不幸的是，一个尚未浮现但却非常棘手的问题使得保险业的阵痛将持续，它不但使得保险公司因核保损失创下历史新高而面临经营的困境，更有可能让业者苦心经营的努力事倍功半。

This problem arises from the decline in bond prices and the insurance accounting convention that allows companies to carry bonds at amortized cost, regardless of market value. Many insurers own long-term bonds that, at amortized cost, amount to two to three times net worth. If the level is three times, of course, a one-third shrink from cost in bond prices - if it were to be recognized on the books - would wipe out net worth. And shrink they have. Some of the largest and best known property- casualty companies currently find themselves with nominal, or
even negative, net worth when bond holdings are valued at market. Of course their bonds could rise in price, thereby partially, or conceivably even fully, restoring the integrity of stated net worth. Or they could fall further. (We believe that short-term forecasts of stock or bond prices are useless. The forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.)

事情的起因在于债券价格下跌，而会计原则又允许保险业以摊销成本而非市价列示其帐面价值，结果导致许多业者以摊销成本记录的长期债券投资金额达到其净值的二、三倍之多，换言之，只要债券价格下跌超过三分之一，便很有可能把公司的净值全部吃光，这其中甚至包括好几家知名的大公司在内，当然债券价格也有可能会回升，使得其部份，甚至全部的净值得以回复，但也没有人敢保证债券价格不会继续下跌。(我们深信对股票或债券价格所作的短期预测根本是没有用的，预测这件事或许能够让你更了解预测者本身，但对于了解未来却是一点帮助也没有)。

It might strike some as strange that an insurance company’s survival is threatened when its stock portfolio falls sufficiently in price to reduce net worth significantly, but that an even greater decline in bond prices produces no reaction at all. The industry would respond by pointing out that, no matter what the current price, the bonds will be paid in full at maturity, thereby eventually eliminating any interim price decline. It may take twenty, thirty, or even forty years, this argument says, but, as long as the bonds don’t have to be sold, in the end they’ll all be worth face value. Of course, if they are sold even if they are replaced with similar bonds offering better relative value - the loss must be booked immediately. And, just as promptly, published net worth must be adjusted downward by the amount of the loss.

有点吊诡的是，若持有的股票投资组合价格下跌会影响到保险业者的生存，但若换作是债券价格下跌却是一点事都没有，保险业者所持的理由是不管现在的市价是多少，反正只要到期日前不卖出，便能按照票面赎回，所以短期间价格的波动并无太大影响，就算是二十年、三十年或甚至是四十年后到期，只要我不卖，等时间一到，就能够以票面金额收回，反倒是若我现在就出售这些债券，那么就算是再买进同类型价值更高的债券，我反而要立即认列相关损失，使得帐面净值因而大幅缩水。

Under such circumstances, a great many investment options disappear, perhaps for decades. For example, when large underwriting losses are in prospect, it may make excellent business logic for some insurers to shift from tax-exempt bonds into taxable bonds. Unwillingness to recognize major bond losses may be the sole factor that prevents such a sensible move.

但真正的情况却是，业者很可能为避免认列损失而一直不敢出售债券，其结果反而错失其它更好的投资机会。

But the full implications flowing from massive unrealized bond losses are far more serious than just the immobilization of investment intellect. For the source of funds to purchase and hold those bonds is a pool of money derived from policyholders and claimants (with changing faces) - money which, in effect, is temporarily on deposit with the insurer. As long as this pool retains its size, no bonds must be sold. If the pool of funds shrinks - which it will if the volume of business declines significantly - assets must be sold to pay off the liabilities. And if those assets consist of bonds with big unrealized losses, such losses will rapidly become realized, decimating net worth in the process.

更严重的是，保险公司资金主要是来自于保户所缴的保费，由于产险的投保期间较短，一但保户规模缩减，资金流动不足时，将被迫出售部份债券使得损失浮上台面，保险公司的净值立即大幅缩水。

Thus, an insurance company with a bond market value shrinkage approaching stated net worth (of which there are now many) and also faced with inadequate rate levels that are sure to deteriorate further has two options. One option for management is to tell the underwriters to keep pricing according to the exposure involved - “be sure to get a dollar of premium for every dollar of expense cost plus expectable loss cost”.

因此保险公司在面临债券价格下跌，净值大幅缩水(目前确有许多业者是如此)，同时市场费率又低到不合理时，通常有两种选择，一种是告诉核保部门，必须坚守费率底限，保费绝对不可以低于预估损失成本加上营业费用。

The consequences of this directive are predictable: (a) with most business both price sensitive and renewable annually, many policies presently on the books will be lost to competitors in rather short order; (b) as premium volume shrinks significantly, there will be a lagged but corresponding decrease in liabilities (unearned premiums and claims payable); (c) assets (bonds) must be sold to match the decrease in liabilities; and (d) the formerly unrecognized disappearance of net worth will become partially recognized (depending upon the extent of such sales) in the insurer’s published financial statements.

这种选择的结果相当明确：(a)由于大部份的业务都是每年更新且对价格都相当敏感，所以很多保单在到期后都会流到竞争对手那边；(b)随着保费收入大幅缩水，相对应的负债科目也会慢慢减少(未到期保费及应付理赔款)；(c)资产(债券)必须跟着出售，以因应负债的减少；(d)原先台面下的未实现损失，将被迫认列在保险业者的财务报表之上(当然要看出售的多寡)。

Variations of this depressing sequence involve a smaller penalty to stated net worth. The reaction of some companies at (c) would be to sell either stocks that are already carried at market values or recently purchased bonds involving less severe losses. This ostrich-like behavior - selling the better assets and keeping the biggest losers - while less painful in the short term, is unlikely to be a winner in the long term.

这一令人沮丧的顺序的变化涉及对申报净资产的较小惩罚。在(c)的情况下，一些公司的反应要么是出售已经按市场价值计价的股票，要么是出售最近购买的损失较小的债券。这种鸵鸟般的行为——出售更好的资产，保留损失最大的资产——虽然短期内不那么痛苦，但从长期来看不太可能成为赢家。

The second option is much simpler: just keep writing business regardless of rate levels and whopping prospective underwriting losses, thereby maintaining the present levels of premiums, assets and liabilities - and then pray for a better
day, either for underwriting or for bond prices. There is much criticism in the trade press of “cash flow” underwriting; i.e., writing business regardless of prospective underwriting losses in order to obtain funds to invest at current high interest rates. This second option might properly be termed “asset maintenance” underwriting - the acceptance of terrible business just to keep the assets you now have.

第二种选择比较简单，那就是不管保费水准有多低，将来要赔多少钱，都照单全收以维持现有保费收入水准，然后暗地里祈祷不要发生什么重大意外，或是期待债券价格早日回升，对于这样的做法，外界一直有相当大的批评。

Of course you know which option will be selected. And it also is clear that as long as many large insurers feel compelled to choose that second option, there will be no better day for underwriting. For if much of the industry feels it must maintain premium volume levels regardless of price adequacy, all insurers will have to come close to meeting those prices. Right behind having financial problems yourself, the next worst plight is to have a large group of competitors with financial problems that they can defer by a “sell-at-any-price” policy.

当然各位都晓得我们应该采取那一种做法，而且产业的趋势也很明确，那就是只要大部份的保险公司都被迫采取第二种做法，那么保险市场就不会有好转的一天，因为如果大部份的业者，不论费率是否合理，都以维持保费收入水准为第一优先，那么市场价格就一定不会好转，除了本身发生财务问题之外，我们最不愿意见到的就是市场上大部份的同业都因为财务问题而纷纷采取流血式的杀价竞争。

We mentioned earlier that companies that were unwilling - for any of a number of reasons, including public reaction, institutional pride, or protection of stated net worth - to sell bonds at price levels forcing recognition of major losses might find themselves frozen in investment posture for a decade or longer. But, as noted, that’s only half of the problem. Companies that have made extensive commitments to long-term bonds may have lost, for a considerable period of time, not only many of their investment options, but many of their underwriting options as well.

我们之前也曾提到，任何一家保险公司因为种种理由，诸如顾及公众反应、企业自尊心或是怕伤害到净值等原因，而不愿认赔出售债券者，终将发现自己被债券长期套牢而无法进行其它投资，而我们之前也提到，问题还不止于此，除了投资的选择被迫牺牲，甚至于连是否接受保单的选择也都荡然无存。

Our own position in this respect is satisfactory. We believe our net worth, valuing bonds of all insurers at amortized cost, is the strongest relative to premium volume among all large property-casualty stockholder-owned groups. When bonds are valued at market, our relative strength becomes far more dramatic. (But lest we get too puffed up, we remind ourselves that our asset and liability maturities still are far more mismatched than we would wish and that we, too, lost important sums in bonds because your Chairman was talking when he should have been acting.)

至于我们本身采取的立场就相当令人安心，我们相信自己的净值相对于保费收入水准，依所有业者债券采摊销成本制，是所有大型产险业者中最强的，甚至当债券价值以市价计时，我们的竞争优势更加明显，(当然在吹嘘自夸的同时，我们还是必须提醒自己资产与负债部位的到期日仍不相称，而且本人也因为无法剑及履及的执行，而使得我们在债券方面的投资损失了不少钱)。

Our abundant capital and investment flexibility will enable us to do whatever we think makes the most sense during the prospective extended period of inadequate pricing. But troubles for the industry mean troubles for us. Our financial strength doesn’t remove us from the hostile pricing environment now enveloping the entire property-casualty insurance industry. It just gives us more staying power and more options.

伯克希尔充足的资金与弹性的投资操作，将使得我们在面对市场不当定价的恶性竞争环境时，还能游刃有余，但是产业的问题就是我们的问题，我们坚强的财务实力，依旧无法使我们免于产业的杀价竞争，我们只不过是多了些持久力以及可供选择的空间。