巴菲特致股东的信（1980年）⑦保险业营运⑧纺织业及零售业营运

Insurance Operations

The National Indemnity managers, led by Phil Liesche with the usual able assistance of Roland Miller and Bill Lyons, outdid themselves in 1980. While volume was flat, underwriting margins relative to the industry were at an all-time high. We expect decreased volume from this operation in 1981. But its managers will hear no complaints from corporate headquarters, nor will employment or salaries suffer. We enormously admire the National Indemnity underwriting discipline - embedded from origin by the founder, Jack Ringwalt - and know that this discipline, if suspended, probably could not be fully regained.

保险业营运

今年由Phil Liesche所领导的国民保险公司在核保部门Roland以及理赔部门Bill Lyons的协助下，不断地超越自我，虽然保费收入持平，但核保的利润率却创同业新高，虽然我们预期明年保费收入将减少，但身为总部的我们不会有任何的抱怨而他们的薪资考绩也不会受影响，对于公司创办人所定下的核保准则我们信奉不渝，而且相当清楚一旦失去就永难再恢复。

John Seward at Home and Auto continues to make good progress in replacing a diminishing number of auto policies with volume from less competitive lines, primarily small-premium general liability. Operations are being slowly expanded, both geographically and by product line, as warranted by underwriting results.

John Seward领导的家庭与汽车险公司则小有进展，我们将较不具竞争力的小额一般责任险转为金额较大的汽车保险，同时随着核保绩效的改进，营运规模，不论是在地区或是产品线，也在缓步提升中。

The reinsurance business continues to reflect the excesses and problems of the primary writers. Worse yet, it has the potential for magnifying such excesses. Reinsurance is characterized by extreme ease of entry, large premium payments in advance, and much-delayed loss reports and loss payments. Initially, the morning mail brings lots of cash and few claims. This state of affairs can produce a blissful, almost euphoric, feeling akin to that experienced by an innocent upon receipt of his first credit card.

再保险业务继续反映出主要保险公司的过度行为和问题。更糟糕的是，它有可能放大这种过度行为。再保险的特点是极其容易进入，预先支付大量保费，以及经常延迟损失报告和损失支付。起初，早期保单带来了大量现金，很少有索赔。这种状态可以产生一种幸福的，几乎是欣快的感觉，就像一个年轻人收到他的第一张信用卡时所经历的那样。

The magnetic lure of such cash-generating characteristics, currently enhanced by the presence of high interest rates, is transforming the reinsurance market into “amateur night”. Without a super catastrophe, industry underwriting will be poor
in the next few years. If we experience such a catastrophe, there could be a bloodbath with some companies not able to live up to contractual commitments. George Young continues to do a first-class job for us in this business. Results, with
investment income included, have been reasonably profitable. We will retain an active reinsurance presence but, for the foreseeable future, we expect no premium growth from this activity.

高利润的吸引力使得大笔的资金拥入这个行业，目前的高利率环境更加深了这样的现象，导致的结果是若某一年未发生大灾难，则往后几年的核保绩效便会变得很差，相反的，若有大灾难发生，则更大的灾难将会降临在保险公司身上，因为有些同业可能无法履行与客户当初签订的合约，而我们GeorgeYoung在这一行的表现一向是一流的，在加计投资收益后，仍能微持合理的获利，我们将继续留在再保市场，但在可预见的未来，保费收入将很难有大幅的成长。

We continue to have serious problems in the Homestate operation. Floyd Taylor in Kansas has done an outstanding job but our underwriting record elsewhere is considerably below average. Our poorest performer has been Insurance Company of Iowa, at which large losses have been sustained annually since its founding in 1973. Late in the fall we abandoned underwriting in that state, and have merged the company into Cornhusker Casualty. There is potential in the homestate concept, but much work needs to be done in order to realize it.

在Homestate家计保险业务方面，我们持续面临重大的问题，除了Kansas的Floyd Taylor外，其余的核保表现均在同业水准之下，其中Iowa保险，自1973年成立以来，每年皆发生巨额损失，直到去年我们决定结束该州的业务，并将之并入Cornhusker产险，家计保险概念其实也很大的潜力，但还需要很多努力才有办法实现它。

Our Workers Compensation operation suffered a severe loss when Frank DeNardo died last year at 37. Frank instinctively thought like an underwriter. He was a superb technician and a fierce competitor; in short order he had straightened out major problems at the California Workers Compensation Division of National Indemnity. Dan Grossman, who originally brought Frank to us, stepped in immediately after Frank’s death to continue that operation, which now utilizes Redwood Fire and Casualty, another Berkshire subsidiary, as the insuring vehicle.

我们的劳工退休金业务在去年痛失英才，37岁的Frank DeNardo不幸去世，他天生就是个保险专家，积极进取，努力上进，在短短时间内便改正在国家产业退休金业务部门的缺失，当初介绍Frank加入的Dan Grossman立即接手其原有工作，并以伯克希尔以另一家子公司Redwood火险为主体，承接业务。

Our major Workers Compensation operation, Cypress Insurance Company, run by Milt Thornton, continues its outstanding record. Year after year Milt, like Phil Liesche, runs an underwriting operation that far outpaces his competition. In the industry he is admired and copied, but not matched.

至于由Milt所领导的Cypress保险公司一直是我们在这项业务的主力，且表现一直相当优异，与Phi lLiesche一样，广为同业所仰慕与模仿，但其优秀的表现却是同业无法比拟的。

Overall, we look for a significant decline in insurance volume in 1981 along with a poorer underwriting result. We expect underwriting experience somewhat superior to that of the industry but, of course, so does most of the industry. There will be some disappointments.

总之保险业务量在1981年将大幅下滑，整体核保表现也不会太好，虽然我们预期自己的绩效应该会比同业好许多，但其它同业也都这样认为，最后肯定有人会大失所望。

Textile and Retail Operations

During the past year we have cut back the scope of our textile business. Operations at Waumbec Mills have been terminated, reluctantly but necessarily. Some equipment was transferred to New Bedford but most has been sold, or will be, along with real estate. Your Chairman made a costly mistake in not facing the realities of this situation sooner.

纺织业及零售业营运

去年我们缩减在纺织业的营运规模，虽然不愿意但却不得不关闭Waumbec工厂，除了少数设备转移至New Bedford外，其余设备连同厂房都将处份掉，我本人由于无法早日面对事实而犯了重大的错误。

At New Bedford we have reduced the number of looms operated by about one-third, abandoning some high-volume lines in which product differentiation was insignificant. Even assuming everything went right - which it seldom did - these lines could not generate adequate returns related to investment. And, over a full industry cycle, losses were the most likely result.

而在New Bedford我们也淘汰了将近三分之一的织布机，保留适合少量多样型的机台，而即使一切顺利(这种情况很少)，这些生产线仍不具投资效益，就产业循环而言，损失将无可避免。

Our remaining textile operation, still sizable, has been divided into a manufacturing and a sales division, each free to do business independent of the other. Thus, distribution strengths and mill capabilities will not be wedded to each other. We have more than doubled capacity in our most profitable textile segment through a recent purchase of used 130-inch Saurer looms. Current conditions indicate another tough year in textiles, but with substantially less capital employed in the operation.

剩下的纺织事业，规模还不算小，将划分为制造与销售两部门，各自独立运作，两者才不致于绑在一起，由于新购进中古130吋针式织布机，将使得我们目前最具获利能力产品线的产能增加一倍，情势告诉我们纺织业又将面临艰困的一年，所幸我们在这一行所投入的资本已大幅减少。

Ben Rosner’s record at Associated Retail Stores continues to amaze us. In a poor retailing year, Associated’s earnings continued excellent - and those earnings all were translated into cash. On March 7, 1981 Associated will celebrate its 50th birthday. Ben has run the business (along with Leo Simon, his partner from 1931 to 1966) in each of those fifty years.

Ben Rosne在联合零售商店的表现持续令我们惊艳，在零售业普遍惨淡的一年，该公司盈余表现仍佳，且大部份皆为现金收入，而明年联合零售将迈入第五十个年头，而连同前任者Simon(1931-1966)，两人合计经营这家公司整整有五十年了。