巴菲特致股东的信（1981年）⑦保险业状况

Insurance Industry Conditions

“Forecasts”, said Sam Goldwyn, “are dangerous, particularly those about the future.” (Berkshire shareholders may have reached a similar conclusion after rereading our past annual reports featuring your Chairman’s prescient analysis of textile prospects.)

保险业状况

“预测”如同SamGoldwyn所说的是相当危险的，尤其是那些有关对未来的预测，(伯克希尔的股东在过去几年的年报中读到你们的董事长对纺织业未来的分析后，可能也会深有同感。)

There is no danger, however, in forecasting that 1982 will be the worst year in recent history for insurance underwriting. That result already has been guaranteed by present pricing behavior, coupled with the term nature of the insurance contract.

但若预测1982年的保险业承销会很惨，那就不会有什么好怕的了，因为结果已经由目前同业的杀价行为加上保险契约的先天性质获得了印证。

While many auto policies are priced and sold at six-month intervals - and many property policies are sold for a three-year term - a weighted average of the duration of all property-casualty insurance policies probably runs a little under twelve months. And prices for the insurance coverage, of course, are frozen for the life of the contract. Thus, this year’s sales contracts (“premium written” in the parlance of the industry) determine about one-half of next year’s level of revenue (“premiums earned”). The remaining half will be determined by sales contracts written next year that will be about 50% earned in that year. The profitability consequences are automatic: if you make a mistake in pricing, you have to live with it for an uncomfortable period of time.

当许多汽车保险保单以六个月为期来定价并发售，而许多产物保险以三年为期，而意外保险同业一般流通的期间则略低于十二个月，当然价格在保险有效的期间内是固定的，因此今年销售的合约(业内的说法，称之为保费收入)大概会决定明年保费收入的一半，而另外一半则由明年签下的保险契约来决定，因此获利的情况自然而然会递延，也就是说若你在定价上犯了错误，那你所受的痛苦可能会持续一阵子。

Note in the table below the year-over-year gain in industry-wide premiums written and the impact that it has on the current and following year’s level of underwriting profitability. The result is exactly as you would expect in an inflationary world. When the volume gain is well up in double digits, it bodes well for profitability trends in the current and following year. When the industry volume gain is small, underwriting experience very shortly will get worse, no matter how unsatisfactory the current level.

注意下表所列为每年保费收入成长率与其对当年与隔年度获利的影响，而结果正如同你所预期的一样，当保费收入以二位数成长，则当年与隔年的获利数字就会很好看，但若保费收入仅能以个位数成长，则表示承销结果就会变得很差。

The Best’s data in the table reflect the experience of practically the entire industry, including stock, mutual and reciprocal companies. The combined ratio indicates total operating and loss costs as compared to premiums; a ratio below 100 indicates an underwriting profit, and one above 100 indicates a loss.

下表反映一般同业所面临的情势，综合比率表示所有营运成本加上理赔损失占保费收入的比率，百分之一百以下表示有承保利益，反之则表示有损失:

As Pogo would say, “The future isn’t what it used to be.” Current pricing practices promise devastating results, particularly if the respite from major natural disasters that the industry has enjoyed in recent years should end. For underwriting experience has been getting worse in spite of good luck, not because of bad luck. In recent years hurricanes have stayed at sea and motorists have reduced their driving. They won’t always be so obliging.

诚如Pogo所说:“未来绝不会与过去相同”。现在的订价习惯已注定日后悲惨的结果，尤其若因近几年无重大灾难所得的喘息机会结束时。保险承保的情况会因大家运气好(而非运气坏)而变差，近几年来飓风大多仅停留在海上，同时摩托车骑士较少在路上跑，但他们不会永远都那么守规矩。

And, of course the twin inflations, monetary and “social” (the tendency of courts and juries to stretch the coverage of policies beyond what insurers, relying upon contract terminology and precedent, had expected), are unstoppable. Costs of repairing both property and people - and the extent to which these repairs are deemed to be the responsibility of the insurer - will advance relentlessly.

当然货币与社会的双重通胀是无法抵挡的(法院与陪审团对保险投保范围认定超越合约与判例的扩张)，财产修复与人身医疗等这些被视为保险合同义务的成本也无情的不断增加。

Absent any bad luck (catastrophes, increased driving, etc.), an immediate industry volume gain of at least 10% per year probably is necessary to stabilize the record level of underwriting losses that will automatically prevail in mid-1982. (Most underwriters expect incurred losses in aggregate to rise at least 10% annually; each, of course, counts on getting less than his share.) Every percentage point of annual premium growth below the 10% equilibrium figure quickens the pace of deterioration. Quarterly data in 1981 underscore the conclusion that a terrible underwriting picture is worsening at an accelerating rate.

若没遇上什么倒霉事(如大灾难或驾驶行为增加等)同业保费收入平均至少要增加十个百分点才能使1982年的承销比率不会再恶化(大部份同业估计承担损失每年以十个百分点成长，当然大家都期望自己公司成长较少)。保费年增长率低于10%均衡数字的每一个百分点都会加快恶化的速度。1981年的季度数据突显了这样一个结论:糟糕的承保状况正在加速恶化。

In the 1980 annual report we discussed the investment policies that have destroyed the integrity of many insurers’ balance sheets, forcing them to abandon underwriting discipline and write business at any price in order to avoid negative cash flow. It was clear that insurers with large holdings of bonds valued, for accounting purposes, at nonsensically high prices would have little choice but to keep the money revolving by selling large numbers of policies at nonsensically low prices. Such insurers necessarily fear a major decrease in volume more than they fear a major underwriting loss.

在1980年的年报中，我们讨论了一些投资政策，这些政策破坏了许多保险公司资产负债表的完整性，迫使它们放弃承保纪律，不惜一切代价承保业务，以避免出现负现金流。很明显，持有大量不合理高估的债券(从会计角度来看)的保险公司，它们别无选择，只能以低得离谱的价格出售大量保单，以保持资金周转。这些保险公司对业务量大幅下降的担忧，肯定超过了对承保损失的担忧。

But, unfortunately, all insurers are affected; it’s difficult to price much differently than your most threatened competitor. This pressure continues unabated and adds a new motivation to the others that drive many insurance managers to push for business; worship of size over profitability, and the fear that market share surrendered never can be regained.

但不幸的是，所有保险公司都受到了影响，因为很难在定价上与你最受威胁的竞争对手有很大不同。这种压力有增无减，并迫使愈来愈多的同业跟进，盲目追求规模而非盈利能力，害怕失去的市场占有率永远无法恢复。

Whatever the reasons, we believe it is true that virtually no major property-casualty insurer - despite protests by the entire industry that rates are inadequate and great selectivity should be exercised - has been willing to turn down business to the point where cash flow has turned significantly negative. Absent such a willingness, prices will remain under severe pressure.

无论原因是什么，即使大家一致认同费率极不合理，我们认为没有一家保险业者，能够承受现金极度流出的情况下不接任何保单，而只要这种心态存在，则保单价格将持续面临调降压力。

Commentators continue to talk of the underwriting cycle, usually implying a regularity of rhythm and a relatively constant midpoint of profitability Our own view is different. We believe that very large, although obviously varying, underwriting losses will be the norm for the industry, and that the best underwriting years in the future decade may appear substandard against the average year of the past decade.

产业专家认为保险行业是景气周期循环的，并且长期而言承保损益接近两平。对此我们则持不同的看法，我们相信承保面临巨额损失(虽然程度不一)将成为保险业界的常态，未来十年内最好的表现在以往仅能算得上是普通而已。

We have no magic formula to insulate our controlled insurance companies against this deteriorating future. Our managers, particularly Phil Liesche, Bill Lyons, Roland Miller, Floyd Taylor and Milt Thornton, have done a magnificent job of swimming against the tide. We have sacrificed much volume, but have maintained a substantial underwriting superiority in relation to industry-wide results. The outlook at Berkshire is for continued low volume. Our financial position offers us maximum flexibility, a very rare condition in the property-casualty insurance industry. And, at some point, should fear ever prevail throughout the industry, our financial strength could become an operational asset of immense value.

虽然面临持续恶化的未来，伯克希尔的保险事业并无任何良方，但我们经营阶层却已尽力力争上游，虽然承保数量减少了，但承保损益相较于同业仍显优越。展望未来，伯克希尔将维持低保单的现状，我们的财务实力使我们能保持最大的弹性，这在同业间并不多见。而将来总有一天，当同业保单接到怕之时，伯克希尔的财务实力将成为营运发展最有利的后盾。

We believe that GEICO Corporation, our major non-controlled business operating in this field, is, by virtue of its extreme and improving operating efficiency, in a considerably more protected position than almost any other major insurer. GEICO is a brilliantly run implementation of a very important business idea.

我们认为盖可保险在我们非控股的主要股权投资中更是个中翘楚，它堪称企业理念的最佳实践典范。

Insurance Industry Conditions “Forecasts”, said Sam Goldwyn, “are dangerous, particularly those about the future.” (Berkshire shareholders may have reached a similar conclusion after rereading our past annual reports featuring your Chairman’s prescient analysis of textile prospects.)

There is no danger, however, in forecasting that 1982 will be the worst year in recent history for insurance underwriting. That result already has been guaranteed by present pricing behavior, coupled with the term nature of the insurance contract.

Insurance Industry Conditions

“Forecasts”, said Sam Goldwyn, “are dangerous, particularly those about the future.” (Berkshire shareholders may have reached a similar conclusion after rereading our past annual reports featuring your Chairman’s prescient analysis of textile prospects.)