巴菲特致股东的信（1982年）①未报告的所有权收益

March 3, 1983

1983年3月3日

To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

Operating earnings of $31.5 million in 1982 amounted to only 9.8% of beginning equity capital (valuing securities at cost), down from 15.2% in 1981 and far below our recent high of 19.4% in 1978. This decline largely resulted from:

(1) a significant deterioration in insurance underwriting results;

(2) a considerable expansion of equity capital without a corresponding growth in the businesses we operate directly; and

(3) a continually-enlarging commitment of our resources to investment in partially-owned, nonoperated businesses; accounting rules dictate that a major part of our pro-rata share of earnings from such businesses must be excluded from Berkshire’s reported earnings.

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东：

今年的营业利益约为三千一百万美元，期初股东权益报酬率(持有股权投资以原始成本计)仅约9.8%，较去年1979年的15.2%下滑，亦远低于1978年近年度的新高19.4%，主要的原因包括:

(1)保险承销成绩大幅恶化。

(2)股权资本大幅扩张的同时，由我们直接控制的事业并未同步成长。

(3)我们持续增加对不具控制权股权投资的投入，但我们依比例可分得的盈余照会计原则却不能认列在帐面上。

It was only a few years ago that we told you that the operating earnings/equity capital percentage, with proper allowance for a few other variables, was the most important yardstick of single-year managerial performance. While we still believe this to be the case with the vast majority of companies, we believe its utility in our own case has greatly diminished. You should be suspicious of such an assertion. Yardsticks seldom are discarded while yielding favorable readings. But when results deteriorate, most managers favor disposition of the yardstick rather than disposition of the manager.

几年前我曾经说过营业利益占股权资本的比率(再加上一些调整)是衡量企业单一年度经营绩效的最佳方法，虽然我们仍坚信这套标准仍适用于绝大部份的企业，但是我必须说明这套标准对伯克希尔的适用性却已大不如前，或许你会怀疑这样的说法，认为当数字好看时很少有人会将标准舍弃，但是将结果变得很糟糕时，经理人通常倾向将衡量标准而非自己给换掉。

To managers faced with such deterioration, a more flexible measurement system often suggests itself: just shoot the arrow of business performance into a blank canvas and then carefully draw the bullseye around the implanted arrow. We generally believe in pre-set, long-lived and small bullseyes. However, because of the importance of item (3) above, further explained in the following section, we believe our abandonment of the operating earnings/equity capital bullseye to be warranted.

当成绩恶化时，自然就会有另一套标准跑出来解释原因，就像是射箭手先将箭射在空白的标靶上，然后再小心的将红心画在箭的周围一样，但基于前述原因(3)的重要性日益增加(详如后述)，我们确信移动红心的举动是具有正当理由的。

Non-Reported Ownership Earnings

The appended financial statements reflect “accounting” earnings that generally include our proportionate share of earnings from any underlying business in which our ownership is at least 20%. Below the 20% ownership figure, however, only our share of dividends paid by the underlying business units is included in our accounting numbers; undistributed earnings of such less-than-20%-owned businesses are totally ignored.

未报告的所有权收益

后附财务报表所反映的帐面盈余一般已将我们持股超过20%的股权投资依持股比例认列其损益，然而低于20%的股权投资却只能认列实际有收到的现金股利，至于未发放的盈余则完全不列入计算。

There are a few exceptions to this rule; e.g., we own about 35% of GEICO Corporation but, because we have assigned our voting rights, the company is treated for accounting purposes as a less-than-20% holding. Thus, dividends received from GEICO in 1982 of $3.5 million after tax are the only item included in our “accounting”earnings. An additional $23 million that represents our share of GEICO’s undistributed operating earnings for 1982 is totally excluded from our reported operating earnings. If GEICO had earned less money in 1982 but had paid an additional $1 million in dividends, our reported earnings would have been larger despite the poorer business results. Conversely, if GEICO had earned an additional $100 million - and retained it all - our reported earnings would have been unchanged. Clearly “accounting” earnings can seriously misrepresent economic reality.

当然也有少数例外，譬如我们持有35%的盖可保险公司便因为我们已将投票权委托出去给别人，故在1982年仅能以成本法认列实际收到的现金股利350万美元，至于剩下的2,300万未分配的部份则完全不列入计算;而假设盖可保险当年度赚的比原本的少但却多发100万，则伯克希尔的帐面反而变得更好看，很明显的会计原则有时会扭曲经济现实。

We prefer a concept of “economic” earnings that includes all undistributed earnings, regardless of ownership percentage. In our view, the value to all owners of the retained earnings of a business enterprise is determined by the effectiveness with which those earnings are used - and not by the size of one’s ownership percentage. If you have owned .01 of 1% of Berkshire during the past decade, you have benefited economically in full measure from your share of our retained earnings, no matter what your accounting system. Proportionately, you have done just as well as if you had owned the magic 20%. But if you have owned 100% of a great many capital-intensive businesses during the decade, retained earnings that were credited fully and with painstaking precision to you under standard accounting methods have resulted in minor or zero economic value. This is not a criticism of accounting procedures. We would not like to have the job of designing a better system. It’s simply to say that managers and investors alike must understand that accounting numbers are the beginning, not the end, of business valuation.

所以我们比较认同将所有未分配盈余皆计入而不管持股比例的经济盈余概念，我们认为一家公司其所赚得的盈余对股东的价值在于公司是否将其在运用于有效的用途之上，而非分配与否或是持股比例，如果你拥有伯克希尔万分之一的股权，在过去十几年来你一定拥有并实际感受到公司盈余的成长，不管你采用的是何种会计原则。同样的，你也可能100%拥有一家资本密集的公司，即使每年皆能完全认列公司的损益，却毫无得到实质经济利益成长的喜悦。这不是在批评会计原则，而我们也没有能力再建立一套更好的制度，只是要告诉所有的经营阶层与投资大众，会计数字只是企业评价的起点而非终点。

In most corporations, less-than-20% ownership positions are unimportant (perhaps, in part, because they prevent maximization of cherished reported earnings) and the distinction between accounting and economic results we have just discussed matters little. But in our own case, such positions are of very large and growing importance. Their magnitude, we believe, is what makes our reported operating earnings figure of limited significance.

在大部份的公司，20%的股权可能不算重大，而前面我们所提到的经济与帐面利益的差异并不大，但我们的情况却非如此，相反地，他们的重要性与成长性，反而使得我们原来帐列的盈余数字显得微不足道。

In our 1981 annual report we predicted that our share of undistributed earnings from four of our major non-controlled holdings would aggregate over $35 million in 1982. With no change in our holdings of three of these companies - GEICO, General Foods and The Washington Post - and a considerable increase in our ownership of the fourth, R. J. Reynolds Industries, our share of undistributed 1982 operating earnings of this group came to well over $40 million. This number - not reflected at all in our earnings - is greater than our total reported earnings, which include only the $14 million in dividends received from these companies. And, of course, we have a number of smaller ownership interests that, in aggregate, had substantial additional undistributed earnings.

在1981年的年报，我们曾预测我们四个主要不具控制权的股权投资，依持股比例可分得的未分配盈余高达三千五百万，而今年在其中三个持股比例未变(包括盖可，通用食品与华盛顿邮报)，另一家雷诺烟草大幅增加的情况下，可分得的未分配盈余超过四千万美金，这个数字完全未显现在帐上，已超过伯克希尔帐列盈余数(其中包含前述四家公司所发放的一千四百万现金股利)，这还不包括其它未计入的不具控制权的股权投资部份。

We attach real significance to the general magnitude of these numbers, but we don’t believe they should be carried to ten decimal places. Realization by Berkshire of such retained earnings through improved market valuations is subject to very substantial, but indeterminate, taxation. And while retained earnings over the years, and in the aggregate, have translated into at least equal market value for shareholders, the translation has been both extraordinarily uneven among companies and irregular and unpredictable in timing.

我们说明这些数字只是要强调它们的重要性，但基于税务考量却不一定要他们完全显现出来，而同时这些盈余将透过其本身股价不定期且不规则的反映出来。

However, this very unevenness and irregularity offers advantages to the value-oriented purchaser of fractional portions of businesses. This investor may select from almost the entire array of major American corporations, including many far superior to virtually any of the businesses that could be bought in their entirety in a negotiated deal. And fractional-interest purchases can be made in an auction market where prices are set by participants with behavior patterns that sometimes resemble those of an army of manic-depressive lemmings.

而这种特性却提供那些价值型的投资人投资机会，他们可以从各式各样的美国企业中挑选价廉物美的公司部份股权，并从一群投资行为有如惊慌失措的旅鼠手中捡到便宜货。

Within this gigantic auction arena, it is our job to select businesses with economic characteristics allowing each dollar of retained earnings to be translated eventually into at least a dollar of market value. Despite a lot of mistakes, we have so far achieved this goal. In doing so, we have been greatly assisted by Arthur Okun’s patron saint for economists - St. Offset. In some cases, that is, retained earnings attributable to our ownership position have had insignificant or even negative impact on market value, while in other major positions a dollar retained by an investee corporation has been translated into two or more dollars of market value. To date, our corporate over-achievers have more than offset the laggards. If we can continue this record, it will validate our efforts to maximize “economic” earnings, regardless of the impact upon “accounting” earnings.

在这个巨大的拍卖市场中，我们的工作就是去挑选那些能将所赚的钱再利用并产生大于原本的经济效益的公司，尽管曾经犯了不少错误，目前为止仍算达成目标，有时某些公司所保留的盈余并未增加其经济效益，但有时却高达二、三倍，到目前为止，表现好的多过表现差的，若我们能继续保持下去，不管对帐面盈余有任何影响，将可使伯克希尔经济盈余极大化。

Satisfactory as our partial-ownership approach has been, what really makes us dance is the purchase of 100% of good businesses at reasonable prices. We’ve accomplished this feat a few times (and expect to do so again), but it is an extraordinarily difficult job - far more difficult than the purchase at attractive prices of fractional interests.

虽然我们对于买进部份股权的方式感到满意，但真正会令我们雀跃的却是能以合理的价格100%地买下一家优良企业，我们偶尔会缔造如此佳绩(也希望能够再次做到)，这是一件相当困难的工作，比买进部份股权要困难得多。

As we look at the major acquisitions that others made during 1982, our reaction is not envy, but relief that we were non-participants. For in many of these acquisitions, managerial intellect wilted in competition with managerial adrenaline The thrill of the chase blinded the pursuers to the consequences of the catch. Pascal’s observation seems apt: “It has struck me that all men’s misfortunes spring from the single cause that they are unable to stay quietly in one room.”

当我们在观察1982年的几件大额购并案时，我们的反应并不是忌妒，反而庆幸我们并非其中一员。因为在这些购并案中，管理当局的冲动战胜其理智，追逐的刺激过程使得追求者变得盲目，Pascal的观察非常恰当:“它使我想到所有的不幸皆归究于大家无法安静的待在一个房间内。”

(Your Chairman left the room once too often last year and almost starred in the Acquisition Follies of 1982. In retrospect, our major accomplishment of the year was that a very large purchase to which we had firmly committed was unable to be completed for reasons totally beyond our control. Had it come off, this transaction would have consumed extraordinary amounts of time and energy, all for a most uncertain payoff. If we were to introduce graphics to this report, illustrating favorable business developments of the past year, two blank pages depicting this blown deal would be the appropriate centerfold.)

(你们的董事长去年也曾数度离开那个房间，且差点成为那场闹剧的主角)，回想起来，去年我们最大的成就是试图大幅购买那些我们先前已投入许多的公司的股权，但由于某些无法控制的原因却无法执行，倘若真的成功了，这宗交易必定会耗尽我们所有的时间与精神，但却不一定会获得回报。若我们将去年的报告作成图表介绍本公司的发展，你将会发现有两页空白的跨页插图用来描述这宗告吹的交易。

Our partial-ownership approach can be continued soundly only as long as portions of attractive businesses can be acquired at attractive prices. We need a moderately-priced stock market to assist us in this endeavor. The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves. But, unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do. For the investor, a too-high purchase price for the stock of an excellent company can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business developments.

我们投资部份股权的作法惟有当我们可以以合理的价格买到吸引人的企业才行得通，同时也需要温和的股票市场作配合，而市场就像老天爷一样，帮助那些自己帮助自己的人，但与老天爷不一样的地方是他不会原谅那些不知道自己在做什么的人。对投资人来说，买进的价格太高将抵销这家绩优企业未来十年亮丽的发展所带来的效应。

Should the stock market advance to considerably higher levels, our ability to utilize capital effectively in partial-ownership positions will be reduced or eliminated. This will happen periodically: just ten years ago, at the height of the two-tier market mania (with high-return-on-equity businesses bid to the sky by institutional investors), Berkshire’s insurance subsidiaries owned only $18 million in market value of equities, excluding their interest in Blue Chip Stamps. At that time, such equity holdings amounted to about 15% of our insurance company investments versus the present 80%. There were as many good businesses around in 1972 as in 1982, but the prices the stock market placed upon those businesses in 1972 looked absurd. While high stock prices in the future would make our performance look good temporarily, they would hurt our long-term business prospects rather than help them. We currently are seeing early traces of this problem.

所以当股票市场涨到一定的程度，将使我们有效地运用资金买进部份股权的能力大打折扣或甚至完全消失。这种情况会定期发生，就在十年前当股市到达狂热的高档时(由于高股东权益报酬股被机构投资人捧上天)，伯克希尔的保险子公司(不包括在蓝筹印花公司的部份)仅仅持有一千八百万市值的股票(相较于现在的80%)，仅占保险公司投资总额的15%，在1972年的当时有跟现在一样多的好公司，但他们当时的股价实在有点离谱。虽然股价高涨对公司短期的表现有所助益，但就长期而言却反而会影响企业的前景，而目前我们已观察到一些蛛丝马迹再度出现。