巴菲特致股东的信（1993年）
④透视收益

"Look-Through" Earnings

     We've previously discussed look-through earnings, which we believe more accurately portray the earnings of Berkshire than does our GAAP result. As we calculate them, look-through earnings consist of: (1) the operating earnings reported in the previous section, plus; (2) the retained operating earnings of major investees that, under GAAP accounting, are not reflected in our profits, less; (3) an allowance for the tax that would be paid by Berkshire if these retained earnings of investees had instead been distributed to us. The "operating earnings" of which we speak here exclude capital gains, special accounting items and major restructuring charges.

透视收益

之前我们曾经讨论过透视收益，其主要的组成份子有(1)前段所提到的报告收益，加上(2)主要被投资公司的保留收益，按一般公认会计原则未反应在我们公司报告上的收益，扣除(3)若这些未反应的收益分配给我们时，估计可能要缴的所得税。在这里我们所谓的经营收益系扣除资本利得、特别会计调整与重大重组费用等支出。

     Over time, our look-through earnings need to increase at about 15% annually if our intrinsic value is to grow at that rate. Last year, I explained that we had to increase these earnings to about $1.8 billion in the year 2000, were we to meet the 15% goal. Because we issued additional shares in 1993, the amount needed has risen to about $1.85 billion.

长期而言，如果我们的内在价值想要以每年 15%的幅度来成长的话，那么透视收益每年也必须以这个幅度来成长，去年我曾经提到，伯克希尔若要达到 15%的成长目标，2000 年的透视收益必须达到 18 亿美元，而由于1993 年我们又发行了一些新股，所以现在提高到 18.5 亿美元。

     That is a tough goal, but one that we expect you to hold us to. In the past, we've criticized the managerial practice of shooting the arrow of performance and then painting the target, centering it on whatever point the arrow happened to hit. We will instead risk embarrassment by painting first and shooting later.

这是一个高难度的目标，不过也希望大家能够继续支持我们。在过去，我们批评有些管理层，总是先把箭射出去后再画上靶心，根本不管这箭射得有多歪，因此，我们宁愿冒着尴尬的风险，也要先定好目标再射箭。 

     If we are to hit the bull's-eye, we will need markets that allow the purchase of businesses and securities on sensible terms. Right now, markets are difficult, but they can - and will - change in unexpected ways and at unexpected times. In the meantime, we'll try to resist the temptation to do something marginal simply because we are long on cash. There's no use running if you're on the wrong road.

如果我们想要命中靶心，那么我们绝对需要有能以合理价格买到好公司或股票的市场，不过现在的市场情况并不理想，当然这种情况随时都有可能会改变，在此同时，我们也会尽量避免，因手上闲钱太多而去做蠢事的冲动，若方向不对，再怎么努力冲刺也是白费力气。

     The following table shows how we calculate look-through earnings, though I warn you that the figures are necessarily very rough. (The dividends paid to us by these investees have been included in the operating earnings itemized on page 8, mostly under "Insurance Group: Net Investment Income.")

各位可以从下表看出我们是如何计算透视收益的，不过我还是要提醒各位这些数字有点粗糙，(被投资公司所分配的股利收入已经包含在保险业务的净投资收益项下)。

(1) Does not include shares allocable to the minority interest at Wesco
(2) Calculated on average ownership for the year
(3) Excludes realized capital gains, which have been both recurring and significant (4) The tax rate used is 14%, which is the rate Berkshire pays on the dividends it receives 

(a)已扣除 wesco 的少数股权；
(b)以年平均持有股权比例计算；
(c)扣除重复发生且金额大的已实现资本利得；
(d)按 14%股息税率计算，这是伯克希尔为其收到的股息支付的税率

     We have told you that we expect the undistributed, hypothetically-taxed earnings of our investees to produce at least equivalent gains in Berkshire's intrinsic value. To date, we have far exceeded that expectation. For example, in 1986 we bought three million shares of Capital Cities/ABC for $172.50 per share and late last year sold one-third of that holding for $630 per share. After paying 35% capital gains taxes, we realized a $297 million profit from the sale. In contrast, during the eight years we held these shares, the retained earnings of Cap Cities attributable to them - hypothetically taxed at a lower 14% in accordance with our look-through method - were only $152 million. In other words, we paid a much larger tax bill than our look-through presentations to you have assumed and nonetheless realized a gain that far exceeded the undistributed earnings allocable to these shares.

我曾告诉过各位，我们期望被投资公司产生的未分配收益(已按估计税率调整)至少可以为伯克希尔创造出同等的内在价值，而到目前为止，其真正的结果甚至远超我们的预期。举例来说，我们在 1986 年以每股 172.5 美元的价格买进 300 万股大都会/ABC 公司的股份，去年我们以每股 630 美元的价格处分了其中的三分之一(回购 100万股)，在支付 35%的资本利得税后，我们实现 2.97 亿美元的税后利润。相比之下，在我们持有这些股份的八年期间，大都会公司分配给这些股份的透视收益只有 1.52 亿美元(假设税率为较低的 14%)，换句话说，即便在扣除较高的所得税负之后，出售这些股份所获取的利润，远超过这些股份所对应的未分配利润。

     We expect such pleasant outcomes to recur often in the future and therefore believe our look-through earnings to be a conservative representation of Berkshire's true economic earnings.

我们预计这样的情况在未来还会持续发生，因此，我们相信伯克希尔所计算的透视收益，算是相当保守的表达方式。

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〔译文源于芒格书院整理的巴菲特致股东的信〕

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