巴菲特致合伙人的信(1964年)
④复利的喜悦


The Joys of Compounding

Readers of our early annual letters registered discontent at a mere recital of contemporary investment experience, but instead hungered for the intellectual stimulation that only could be provided by a depth study of investment strategy spanning the centuries. Hence, this section.

复利的喜悦

有的合伙人读了前几年的信,反馈说怎么讲的都是现当代的投资案例,能不能提高点难度,深入讲讲跨越几个世纪的投资策略。于是,我就写了这部分。

Our last two excursions into the mythology of financial expertise have revealed that purportedly shrewd investments by Isabella (backing the voyage of Columbus) and Francis I (original purchase of Mona Lisa) bordered on fiscal lunacy. Apologists for these parties have presented an array of sentimental trivia. Through it all, our compounding tables have not been dented by attack.

在之前的两则投资错误剖析中,我们讲了伊莎贝拉女王(赞助哥伦布远洋航行)和弗朗西斯一世(购买名画《蒙娜丽莎》)所谓精明的投资,实际上是蠢到家了。有些人为这两位的错误辩解,说来说去都是感情用事。在我们的复利表面前,一切辩解都苍白无力。 

Nevertheless, one criticism has stung a bit. The charge has been made that this column has acquired a negative tone with only the financial incompetents of history receiving comment. We have been challenged to record on these pages a story of financial perspicacity which will be a bench mark of brilliance down through the ages.

有一个质疑还有些合理。有人说,在我写的这部分内容里,用的案例都是负面的,只是在批评历史上投资能力低下的人。有没有投资能力高超的案例,有没有人的光辉业绩世代流传,值得后来者学习? 

One story stands out. This, of course, is the saga of trading acumen etched into history by the Manhattan Indians when they unloaded their island to that notorious spendthrift, Peter Minuit in 1626. My understanding is that they received $24 net. For this, Minuit received 22.3 square miles which works out to about 621,688,320 square feet. While on the basis of comparable sales, it is difficult to arrive at a precise appraisal, a $20 per square foot estimate seems reasonable giving a current land value for the island of $12,433,766,400 ($12 1/2 billion). To the novice, perhaps this sounds like a decent deal. However, the Indians have only had to achieve a 6 1/2% return(The tribal mutual fund representative would have promised them this.) to obtain the last laugh on Minuit. At 6 1/2%, $24 becomes $42,105,772,800 ($42 billion) in 338 years, and if they just managed to squeeze out an extra half point to get to 7%, the present value becomes $205 billion. So much for that.

当然有。传说中的曼哈顿印第安人就因为他们精明的商业头脑而名垂青史。1626 年, 他们把曼哈顿岛卖给了有名的败家子彼得·米努伊特(Peter Minuit)。据我所知,印第安人最后拿到手是 24 美元。米努伊特获得了 57.8 平方公里的土地,相当于 57,756,735 平方米。 目前,曼哈顿岛的价值是 12,433,766,400 美元(124 亿),约合每平米 215 美元。外行乍一看,觉得米努伊特赚了。其实,印第安人只要实现每年 6.5%的收益率(部落基金的销售 代表应该敢承诺这个收益率),他们就能笑到最后。按照每年 6.5%的收益率,经过 338 年,24 美元会变成 42,105,772,800 美元(420 亿)。如果他们的收益率能再高 0.5 个百分点, 达到 7%,他们的钱现在就是 2050 亿美元。讲完了。

Some of you may view your investment policies on a shorter term basis. For your convenience, we include our usual table indicating the gains from compounding $100,000 at various rates:

有的合伙人考虑投资策略时可能不会想这么长远。还是像往常一样,下面是 100,000 美元按照不同收益率复利累积的结果,方便各位参考。 

This table indicates the financial advantages of:
(1)A long life (in the erudite vocabulary of the financial sophisticate this is referred to as the Methusalah Technique)
(2)A high compound rate
(3)A combination of both (especially recommended by this author)

从这个表格中可以看出,下列三个因素对资金增长有好处:
(1)寿命长(在金融大牛的行话里,这个叫“玛士撒拉效应”(Methuselah Technique))
(2)复合增长率高
(3)上述两者兼而有之(笔者特别推荐)

To be observed are the enormous benefits produced by relatively small gains in the annual earnings rate. This explains our attitude which while hopeful of achieving a striking margin of superiority over average investment results, nevertheless, regards every percentage point of investment return above average as having real meaning.

如上表所示,复合增长率稍微高一点,最后的收益就会高很多。正因为如此,尽管我们希望自己的业绩能远远高于平均水平,但是对我们来说,高于平均水平的每一个百分点都有实际意义。

〔译文来源于梁孝永康所编全集〕

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