巴菲特致合伙人的信（1964年）⑥投资方法

Our Method of Operation

In past annual letters I have always utilized three categories to describe investment operations we conduct. I now feel that a four-category division is more appropriate. Partially, the addition of a new section - "Generals Relatively Undervalued" - reflects my further consideration of essential differences that have always existed to a small extent with our "Generals" group. Partially, it reflects the growing importance of what once was a very small sub-category but is now a much more significant part of our total portfolio. This increasing importance has been accompanied by excellent results to date justifying significant time and effort devoted to finding additional opportunities in this area. Finally, it partially reflects the development and implementation of a new and somewhat unique investment technique designed to improve the expectancy and consistency of operations in this category. Therefore, our four present categories are:

我们的投资方法

在以前的信中，我一直把我们的投资分为三类，现在我觉得分成四类更合适。新增加的类别是“低估类（相对低估）”(Generals Relatively Undervalued)。我们的“低估类” 投资中一直存在这个细微差别，现在我觉得有必要把这个差别体现出来。此类投资以前只是 “低估类”中的一个小类，现在已经发展到在我们的整体投资组合中占据更加重要的地位，因此有必要单独划为一类。这类投资的重要性与日俱增，迄今为止的收益率也非常出色，值得投入大量时间和精力在其中寻找更多投资机会。这个新类别反映了我们已经形成一种独具特色的全新投资方法并将其付诸实践，这个新方法的应用有助于我们改善此类投资的预期收益和稳定性。目前，我们的四类投资如下：

1. “Generals -Private Owner Basis” - a category of generally undervalued stocks, determined by quantitative standards, but with considerable attention also paid to the qualitative factor. There is often little or nothing to indicate immediate market improvement. The issues lack glamour or market sponsorship. Their main qualification is a bargain price; that is, an overall valuation of the enterprise substantially below what careful analysis indicates its value to a private owner to be. Again, let me emphasize that while the quantitative comes first and is essential, the qualitative is important. We like good management - we like a decent industry - we like a certain amount of “ferment” in a previously dormant management or stockholder group. But, we demand value.

1.“低估类（基于产业资本视角）”(Generals-Private Owner Basis)——这类投资包含整体低估的股票，我们主要通过定量分析判断是否低估，但是也特别重视定性分析。一般来说，低估类的投资，几乎看不出来或根本不知道短期内怎么能上涨。低估的股票不光鲜，市场不喜欢。它们唯一的好处就是价格低廉，经过审慎分析可以看出，公司的市值远远低于产业资本所能给予的估值。我重申一下，虽说定量是第一位的，是根本，定性也很重要。我们喜欢优秀的管理层，我们喜欢好行业，我们希望有一定的“催化剂”刺激不作为的管理层或股东，但是我们要买得值。

Many times in this category we have the desirable "two strings to our bow" situation where we should either achieve appreciation of market prices from external factors or from the acquisition of a controlling position in a business at a bargain price. While the former happens in the overwhelming majority of cases, the latter represents an insurance policy most investment operations don't have. We have continued to enlarge the positions in the three companies described in our 1964 midyear report where we are the largest stockholder. All three companies are increasing their fundamental value at a very satisfactory rate, and we are completely passive in two situations and active only on a very minor scale in the third. It is unlikely that we will ever take a really active part in policy-making in any of these three companies, but we stand ready if needed.

在此类投资中，我们很多时候都可以做到“进退有余”，最后要么外部因素刺激股价上涨，要么我们以低廉的价格获得一家公司的控股权。虽说外部因素刺激股价上涨属于绝大多数情况，但廉价取得控股权相当于一个保单，这是其他类型的投资中所没有的。在 1964 年的中期报告中，我们提到了我们是三家公司的最大股东，我们一直在加大这三家公司的仓位。我对这三家公司创造基本面价值的速度都非常满意。对于其中两家公司，我们完全是被动投资者。在第三家公司中，我们只是略微采取了一些主动措施。对于这三家公司，我们对任何一家可能都不会采取完全主动的策略，但是如果有必要，我们肯定会出手。

2. "Generals -Relatively Undervalued" - this category consists of securities selling at prices relatively cheap compared to securities of the same general quality. We demand substantial discrepancies from current valuation standards, but (usually because of large size) do not feel value to a private owner to be a meaningful concept. It is important in this category, of course, that apples be compared to apples - and not to oranges, and we work hard at achieving that end. In the great majority of cases we simply do not know enough about the industry or company to come to sensible judgments -in that situation we pass.

2.“低估类（相对低估）”(Generals-Relatively Undervalued)——此类投资中的股票是价格相对便宜的，参照对象是质地相差无几的其他股票。我们对此类股票的要求是按照当前市场估值标准严重低估，但是此类股票一般是大盘股，参照产业资本给予的估值没意义。在这类股票的投资中，一定要进行同类比较，否则就牛头不对马嘴了，这一点我们非常注意。在绝大多数情况中，我们对行业和公司不够了解，无法做出合理的判断，会直接跳过。

As mentioned earlier, this new category has been growing and has produced very satisfactory results. We have recently begun to implement a technique, which gives promise of very substantially reducing the risk from an overall change in valuation standards; e.g. I we buy something at 12 times earnings when comparable or poorer quality companies sell at 20 times earnings, but then a major revaluation takes place so the latter only sell at 10 times.

我刚才说了，这个新类别的投资比重在增加，收益率也非常令人满意。股市整体估值标准的变化会给我们带来风险。例如，在我们以 12 倍市盈率买入一只股票时，同等质地或较差质地的股票市盈率是 20 倍，但随后出现了一波估值调整，原来 20 倍市盈率的那些股票，市盈率跌到了 10 倍。我们最近开始应用一个方法，有望显著削弱这种由于估值标准变化而导致的风险。

This risk has always bothered us enormously because of the helpless position in which we could be left compared to the "Generals -Private Owner" or "Workouts" types. With this risk diminished, we think this category has a promising future.

这个风险一直给我们带来极大的困扰，这类投资与“低估类（基于产业资本视角）”或 “套利类”不同，一旦出现估值标准变化的风险，我们无路可退。现在我们能把这个风险削弱了，此类投资大有前途。

3. "Workouts" - these are the securities with a timetable. They arise from corporate activity - sell-outs, mergers, reorganizations, spin-offs, etc. In this category we are not talking about rumors or "inside information" pertaining to such developments, but to publicly announced activities of this sort. We wait until we can read it in the paper. The risk pertains not primarily to general market behavior (although that is sometimes tied in to a degree), but instead to something upsetting the applecart so that the expected development does not materialize. Such killjoys could include anti-trust or other negative government action, stockholder disapproval, withholding of tax rulings, etc. The gross profits in many workouts appear quite small. It's a little like looking for parking meters with some time left on them. However, the predictability coupled with a short holding period produces quite decent average annual rates of return after allowance for the occasional substantial loss. This category produces more steady absolute profits from year to year than generals do. In years of market decline it should usually pile up a big edge for us; during bull markets it will probably be a drag on performance. On a long-term basis, I expect the workouts to achieve the same sort of margin over the Dow attained by generals.

3.“套利类”(Workouts)——套利类投资有时间表可循。套利投资机会出现在出售、并购、重组、分拆等公司活动中。我们做套利投资不听传闻或“内幕消息”，只看公司的公告。在白纸黑字上读到了，我们才会出手。套利类投资有时也受大盘影响，但主要风险不是大盘涨跌，而是中途出现意外，预期的进展没有实现。常见的意外包括反垄断等政府干预、股东否决、税收政策限制等。许多套利类投资的毛利润看起来很低，就像我们平时在生活里找哪个停车计时器还有剩余时间。但是，套利投资的确定性高、持有时间短，去除偶尔出现的重大亏损，年化收益率是相当不错的。套利类投资每年贡献的绝对利润要比低估类稳定。在市场下跌时，套利类投资积少成多，能给我们带来很大的领先优势；在牛市中，此类投资会拖累我们的业绩。从长期来看，我认为套利类能和低估类一样跑赢道指。

4. "Controls" - these are rarities, but when they occur they are likely to be of significant size. Unless we start off with the purchase of a sizable block of stock, controls develop from the general - private owner category. They result from situations where a cheap security does nothing pricewise for such an extended period of time that we are able to buy a significant percentage of the company's stock. At that point we are probably in a position to assume a degree of or perhaps complete control of the company's activities. Whether we become active or remain relatively passive at this point depends upon our assessment of the company's future and the managements capabilities.

4.“控制类”(Controls)——我们的控制类投资比较少见，但这类投资只要做了，就是大规模的。控制类有的是一开始就通过大宗交易买入，有的是从低估类发展而来的。有的低估类股票，价格在低位徘徊的时间很长，我们能买到很多，实现了部分或完全控股，有能力对公司施加影响，这笔投资从低估类转到了控制类。这时候，我们根据对公司前景以及管理层能力的评估，决定是采取主动，还是保持相对被动。

We do not want to get active merely for the sake of being active. Everything else being equal, I would much rather let others do the work. However, when an active role is necessary to optimize the employment of capital, you can be sure we will not be standing in the wings.

我们不愿为了主动而主动。在其他条件一样的情况下，我更愿意放手让别人做。不过，大家可以放心，如果必须要采取主动，才能让资本得到合理运用，我们不会袖手旁观。

Active or passive, in a control situation there should be a built-in profit. The sine qua non of this operation is an attractive purchase price. Once control is achieved, the value of our investment is determined by the value of the enterprise, not the oftentimes irrationalities of the market place.

不管主动还是被动，投资控制类有一点是必须的：投资时就得把钱赚到。控制类投资的必要条件是物美价廉。取得控股权后，我们的投资价值几何，就不再取决于经常失去理智的市场报价，而是企业本身的价值。

Any of the three situations where we are now the largest stockholders mentioned under Generals - Private Owner could, by virtue of the two-way stretch they possess, turn into controls. That would suit us fine, but it also suits us if they advance in the market to a price more in line with intrinsic value enabling us to sell them, thereby completing a successful generals - private owner operation.

在“低估类（基于产业资本视角）”中，我们提到有三只股票我们是最大股东。由于进可攻、退可守，这三只股票都可能变成控制类，这样很好。如果这三只股票股价上涨，达到比较符合内在价值的价位，这样也很好。我们可以卖出去，成功完成“低估类（基于产业资本视角）”的投资。

Investment results in the control category have to be measured on the basis of at least several years. Proper buying takes time. If needed, strengthening management, redirecting the utilization of capital, perhaps effecting a satisfactory sale or merger, etc., are also all factors that make this a business to be measured in years rather than months. For this reason, in controls, we are looking for wide margins of profit -if it appears at all close, we quitclaim.

衡量控制类的投资收益，至少要看几年时间。按部就班地买入需要时间。另外，可能还要改善管理层、重新配置资本、寻求出售或并购等，控制类中的这些工作都需要时间，所以此类投资不能看几个月，要看几年。因为投入时间长，在控制类投资中，我们要求获利空间一定要大。如果赚不了多少，我们不做。

Controls in the buying stage move largely in sympathy with the Dow. In the later stages their behavior is geared more to that of workouts.

在买入阶段，控制类的表现和道指基本趋同。在末期阶段，控制类的表现和套利类更相似。

You might be interested to know that the buyers of our former control situation, Dempster Mill Manufacturing, seem to be doing very well with it. This fulfills our expectation and is a source of satisfaction. An investment operation that depends on the ultimate buyer making a bum deal (in Wall Street they call this the "Bigger Fool Theory") is tenuous indeed. How much more satisfactory it is to buy at really bargain prices so that only an average disposition brings pleasant results.

我们以前做过一笔控制类投资，登普斯特农具机械制造公司，后来卖了出去。这里告诉大家一下，登普斯特的买方现在把这家公司经营得有声有色。我们实现了自己的初衷，感到很欣慰。做投资，别想着坑人，指望最后让傻子接盘（华尔街有个“博傻理论”，说的就是这种做法），这么做长远不了。在极其低贱的价格买入，平价卖出也能获得喜人的收益，这多有成就感。

As I have mentioned in the past, the division of our portfolio among categories is largely determined by the accident of availability. Therefore, in any given year the mix between generals, workouts, or controls is largely a matter of chance, and this fickle factor will have a great deal to do with our performance relative to the Dow. This is one of many reasons why single year's performance is of minor importance and good or bad, should never be taken too seriously.

我说过，在我们的投资组合中，各类投资的分配主要是见机行事，视投资机会而定。单独拿出某一年来，低估类、套利类或控制类的投资占比有很大的随机性。各类投资所占比重有偶然性，但对我们当年相对道指的业绩有很大影响。所以说，单独一年的业绩不重要，无论好坏，都别看得太重。

To give an example of just how important the accident of division between these categories is, let me cite the example of the past three years. Using an entirely different method of calculation than that used to measure the performance of BPL in entirety, whereby the average monthly investment at market value by category is utilized, borrowed money and office operating expenses excluded, etc., (this gives the most accurate basis for intergroup comparisons but does not reflect overall BPL results) the generals (both present categories combined), workouts, and the Dow, shape up as follows:

我就以过去三年为例，说明各类投资占比的随机性对我们的业绩有多大影响。在这里，我们使用另一种完全不同的计算方法。在衡量巴菲特合伙基金业绩时，我们计算的是整体收益率。现在，我们以各类投资的每月平均市值为准，分别计算每类投资的收益率，计算时将借钱和经营开支因素扣除（这样可以最准确地比较各类投资，但并不能反映合伙基金的整体业绩）。低估类（包括当前的两种低估类）、套利类和道指的收益率如下所示：

Obviously the workouts (along with controls) saved the day in 1962, and if we had been light in this category that year, our final result would have been much poorer, although still quite respectable considering market conditions during the year. We could just as well have had a much smaller percentage of our portfolio in workouts that year; availability decided it, not any notion on my part as to what the market was going to do. Therefore, it is important to realize that in 1962 we were just plain lucky regarding mix of categories.

显然，1962 年，套利类（和控制类）扭转了局面。这一年如果我们的套利类投资占比较低，与大盘相比，我们的收益率仍然会相当出色，但最终收益肯定没那么高了。这一年，我们的套利类占比完全有可能很低，这类投资就看有没有合适的机会，不是我在预知了市场走势后刻意分配的。所以说，大家要明白，1962 年我们各类投资有这样的配比，纯属运气好。

In 1963 we had one sensational workout which greatly influenced results, and generals gave a good account of themselves, resulting in a banner year. If workouts had been normal, (say, more like 1962) we would have looked much poorer compared to the Dow. Here it wasn't our mix that did much for us, but rather excellent situations.

1963 年，我们做了一笔漂亮的套利投资，对整体收益贡献很大。再加上低估类也表现出色，全年收益率非常抢眼。假如这一年套利类的收益比较正常（例如，像 1962 年一样），我们相对道指的优势会大幅缩水。在这一年，我们不是因为各类投资的配比占了便宜，而是受益于良好的形势。

Finally, in 1964 workouts were a big drag on performance. This would be normal in any event during a big plus year for the Dow such as 1964, but they were even a greater drag than expected because of mediocre experience. In retrospect it would have been pleasant to have been entirely in generals, but we don’t play the game in retrospect.

再看 1964 年。这一年，套利类严重拖累了我们的业绩。在像 1964 年道指大涨这样的年份中，这种情况实属正常。但是这一年套利类的表现实在乏善可陈，对业绩的拖累超出了我的预期。回过头来看，我们当时要全投资低估类就好了，但是投资不能重头再来。

I hope the preceding table drives home the point that results in a given year are subject to many variables - some regarding which we have little control or insight. We consider all categories to be good businesses and we are very happy we have several to rely on rather than just one. It makes for more discrimination within each category and reduces the chance we will be put completely out of operation by the elimination of opportunities in a single category.

希望通过我对上述表格的阐述，各位能确实明白某一年的业绩受许多变量的影响，有些因素我们既无法控制，也无法预知。我们认为我们的各类投资都是好投资。我们不是只靠一类投资，而是有几类可供选择，这对我们是好事。正因为如此，我们可以在各个类别中精挑细选，而且一个类别的投资机会没了，我们还可以投别的，不会彻底失去投资机会。